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Feb 11-12, 2012 Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting


NorEastermass128

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This reminds me of some storms in the late 80's and 90's that were just complete and utter PHAILS for all of SNE...it's like the models stepped back 20 yrs in time.. also...the warm ground and insolation didn't help in the areas that actually got decent rates

Yup and I noticed Box has backed off considerably for the overnight lows the next few nights. Lack of snow cover will do that.

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Total dud here like everywhere else. Had about 1-2 mm of snow instead of 1-2 inches, which has since melted under the rising mid February sun angle. I'm expecting some upslope snow shower activity in these parts as the CAA gets cranking later on. Radars off to the west look a bit intriguing to me as lingering moisture will get wrung out by upslope and CAA. Not expecting much, but I'll take whatever flake I can get. Who knows...maybe Pete, MPM, or I will get lucky and get an inch or two.

Unlike Pete, mostly bare ground here. About 25-30% coverage, mostly in the woods and shady areas. Strange little enclave of snow cover on the east slope thanks to the cold air trapping that occurs there during torches. Even the crest at 2K+ can get warmer than a little ways down on the east slope like where Pete is. Weird little phenomenon that is present all the time, but has made itself particularly evident this winter.

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We mentioned that. We said if you have like 1.5 to 2sm light snow, it won't add to much. It's not the sun. Same thing would happen in late December. Just didn't come together.

I dunno..I don't believe for a second that the Cape/TAN areas etc.. would have had trouble sticking and stacking up 2-4 inches at least if not more with a low sun angle, and short days like in Dec

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I'm still surprised how warm its been in New England in general with H850s decently below 0C. Just goes to show how we are starting to move into the time of year when SFC temps will become a lot more important than just looking at the H85 temps to predict snow.

If those previous NAM bomb runs verified it would actually probably be warmer in Gods Country than Eastern MA if they got under heavy snowfall bands.

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I dunno..I don't  believe for a second that the Cape/TAN areas etc.. would have had trouble sticking and stacking up 2-4 inches at least if not more with a low sun angle, and short days like in Dec

agree if this was early dec thru mid-late january they stick much better since it's borderline now. (not a huge difference ....but today just that lil bit would be all it takes)

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I'm still surprised how warm its been in New England in general with H850s decently below 0C. Just goes to show how we are starting to move into the time of year when SFC temps will become a lot more important than just looking at the H85 temps to predict snow.

If those previous NAM bomb runs verified it would actually probably be warmer in Gods Country than Eastern MA if they got under heavy snowfall bands.

Yeah--it really is a bit chilly in Charlemont.

Meanwhile, took advantage of the snow-free Saturday to kick off our burning season. Daughter and wife decided to roast some marshmallows.

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I dunno..I don't believe for a second that the Cape/TAN areas etc.. would have had trouble sticking and stacking up 2-4 inches at least if not more with a low sun angle, and short days like in Dec

I'm with you on this one... I know folks have been poo-pooing the sun angle argument and but the fact of the matter is, from here on out, light & marginal snow events will get harder and harder to accumulate. Of course this does not apply to bombs away type storms with 20-30+dbz, but any 0.1-0.25"/6-hrly type deal will certainly be a bit harder to accumulate during the afternoon hours from here on out.

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I'm with you on this one... I know folks have been poo-pooing the sun angle argument and but the fact of the matter is, from here on out, light & marginal snow events will get harder and harder to accumulate. Of course this does not apply to bombs away type storms with 20-30+dbz, but any 0.1-0.25"/6-hrly type deal will certainly be a bit harder to accumulate during the afternoon hours from here on out.

The airmass was marginal to begin with...so even in late Dec, this would have had trouble down in SE MA...probably slightly less trouble than today, but the difference was most certainly not 4-5" vs 1.5"...maybe Phil would have had 2.3" or something if it was New Years instead of 1.5".

When you have 1-2 mile visibility light snow in a marginal airmass, it will be lousy accumulation rates even with a lower sun angle. They were progged to get several hours of 1/2 to 1/4 mile mod/heavy snow which was the biggest killer in the forecast. I think people like to overplay the sun angle argument when an event doesn't get as heavy as forecast and we are beyond a certain time of the year.

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agree if this was early dec thru mid-late january they stick much better since it's borderline now. (not a huge difference ....but today just that lil bit would be all it takes)

You guys are both wrong. Marginal rates and days of 45-50 temps are the killer. Same thing would have occurred in dec.

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You guys are both wrong. Marginal rates and days of 45-50 temps are the killer. Same thing would have occurred in dec.

Yeah, ground was pretty warm to begin with. Did not really get cold overnight. Even here it was 33F at midnight after being in the mid to upper 40s during the day

Still had some sticking for a little while

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I'm with you on this one... I know folks have been poo-pooing the sun angle argument and but the fact of the matter is, from here on out, light & marginal snow events will get harder and harder to accumulate. Of course this does not apply to bombs away type storms with 20-30+dbz, but any 0.1-0.25"/6-hrly type deal will certainly be a bit harder to accumulate during the afternoon hours from here on out.

I wholeheartedly agree and I think most in the know do as well. If the ground had been cold today that certainly would have helped..but if you get a warm ground and asun angle that is as high in the sky as mid Oct as it is now..it's just not going to be able to accumulate well in a low 30's type of airmass. This even came in at a good time for the Cape..It started snowing there right around sunrise..the coldest part of the day when the sun was still low.. Now if temps were in the 20's it would have accumulated better..but still would accumulate like it would in Late Dec or jan

I took alot of crap for that...but when Frank from BOX who is a very good met had it in the afd the other day..we knew it was legit

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