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Feb 11-12, 2012 Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting


NorEastermass128

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Really struggling to accum here. Grassy surfaces have a frosting look and that is only in exposed areas. Under trees nothing is accum. Streets are clear. Steady light snows all am. I see some heavier echoes s of li. Maybe I'll get clipped. My 3-4in call imby will bust. Maybe 1/2in thus far. So maybe 1in when all said and done.

That southern vort screwed us. A few days ago I made a comment about watching for that piece of energy coming out of the nw as the models got a better handle on it. But I did not expect it to effect this system so negatively. If timing were a bit better with these s/w we could have had a bigger deal.

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Really struggling to accum here. Grassy surfaces have a frosting look and that is only in exposed areas. Under trees nothing is accum. Streets are clear. Steady light snows all am. I see some heavier echoes s of li. Maybe I'll get clipped. My 3-4in call imby will bust. Maybe 1/2in thus far. So maybe 1in when all said and done.

That southern vort screwed us. A few days ago I made a comment about watching for that piece of energy coming out of the nw as the models got a better handle on it. But I did not expect it to effect this system so negatively. If timing were a bit better with these s/w we could have had a bigger deal.

don't give up yet bob

you should have moderate snow for next couple hours ...maybe even a period of S+ with that band just off L.I

not sure what your temps are but if this was falling at nite you'd prolly accumulate better. prolly squeeze out 2 in KTAN IMO

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this is a mighty struggle out here. snowing at a really good clip but just not heavy enough to overcome 33F and putrid ground temps. there's about an inch on my car...1/2 inch on the deck and the trees/ground.. but that's about all. few back roads snow covered, but most just wet.

this will be more of a 1-3 type of thing here unless we really rip soon.

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i still want snow.

true weenies never say die

give me more snow

ill take a 60 and sunny so long as the next day is 33 and paste

Don't give up.

We still have Feb. 19th through all of March to get something Really Big, if you don't mind warmer days interspersed.

Euro ENS showing some -NAO signals week of the 19th. So, it's not over yet.

32F OVC/ Few BINOVC

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this is a mighty struggle out here. snowing at a really good clip but just not heavy enough to overcome 33F and putrid ground temps. there's about an inch on my car...1/2 inch on the deck and the trees/ground.. but that's about all. few back roads snow covered, but most just wet.

this will be more of a 1-3 type of thing here unless we really rip soon.

very sad that the cape may even get shafted

i would think thou if this wasn't related to the feb sun and just warm ground temps that your car would have 4 on the hood by the end

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very sad that the cape may even get shafted

i would think thou if this wasn't related to the feb sun and just warm ground temps that your car would have 4 on the hood by the end

well its funny if you look out the window and just dont' look down it's really ripping pretty good...lol

but going back and forth between 3/4 and 1.5 mile type stuff with temps above freezing is just killing this. it's doing a little better right now given everything is finally firmly coated with some accumulation but that has taken forever to happen.

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Everyone busted. Absolutely everyone. It's hard not to when every major model failed in some dramatic way inside of 24h

i didnt watch too closely other than checking the 12z run of the GFS and GEMs daily this past week, as well as the 12z and 00z of the euro....never looked at the NAM.

iu dont think this was too much of a major fail by the models, i didnt examine closely but a very quick take, there wasnt much to suggest going over 2 inches anywhere other than on the cape.

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LOL complete failure across the model world, Tippy hit on the head last night.

Funny thing is, I will get more snow tonight from the ULL then last night and this morning. Partly sunny, flurries 37 degrees. LOL LOL LOL

You're not getting anything tonight..none of us are..look forward to the 2 light events during the work week and then maybe one big bomb late next weekend and then spring arrives

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i didnt watch too closely other than checking the 12z run of the GFS and GEMs daily this past week, as well as the 12z and 00z of the euro....never looked at the NAM.

iu dont think this was too much of a major fail by the models, i didnt examine closely but a very quick take, there wasnt much to suggest going over 2 inches anywhere other than on the cape.

yes to call this a major fail by models is a emotional knee jerk or exaggeration or both

so the system was a LITTLE further SE (euro) with it's precip shield and BL temps appear'd to be more of a problem then thought (in areas that got the qpf)

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well its funny if you look out the window and just dont' look down it's really ripping pretty good...lol

but going back and forth between 3/4 and 1.5 mile type stuff with temps above freezing is just killing this. it's doing a little better right now given everything is finally firmly coated with some accumulation but that has taken forever to happen.

Yeah the rates are probably hurting it. This one sucks.

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i didnt watch too closely other than checking the 12z run of the GFS and GEMs daily this past week, as well as the 12z and 00z of the euro....never looked at the NAM.

iu dont think this was too much of a major fail by the models, i didnt examine closely but a very quick take, there wasnt much to suggest going over 2 inches anywhere other than on the cape.

I think there was some evidence. Even the euro had .35" up to BOS one run. 12z gfs had a few runs with .5 out west of BOS..and their ensembles were west. Not to mention the sref fail...even last nights run gave me 90% chance of 1" and 5% of 4". Last nights run had the 5% 8" probs on the cape...lol.

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yes to call this a major fail by models is a emotional knee jerk or exaggeration or both

so the system was a LITTLE further SE (euro) with it's precip shield and BL temps appear'd to be more of a problem then thought (in areas that got the qpf)

I think parts of the Cape aren't far off from actual progress temps, but rates aren't high enough. Where it could be colder like in Bobs area, the QPF isn't there.

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