Tropopause_Fold Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Goes down as one of the worst model failures for the euro and ncep. Rgem never bought into the higher amounts and was right. Pulled the plug yesterday. Did not look good at midnight and like I said pre 0z never in my life do I remember a system working out that had almost all the meaningful precip off the east coast to start. I remember substantial busts about every 7-8 years with this type of system on average, distinctly remember one with showegler and co in the 80s and Kent prior. I don't know why our how models failed to model the southern sw well, it does appear the deal breaker was the weak system that traversed the south central gom and off florida. Added even more strength to the well offshore theory, total mess. i don't think it's going to be all that bad by you...at all...3 or 4" shouldn't be hard to reach, IMO. don't you have some already on the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 This has the appearance of an underperformer even out on the Cape.,Hopefully Phil can at least get a couple inches to salvage something out of this mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 As it turned out the southern s/w remained strong and quite separate. Gets bashed because people try to use it for qpf, but the ruc was an animal yesterday with that s/w. rest of the guidance was lost from ncep it led the way on the strength of that feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 This has the appearance of an underperformer even out on the Cape.,Hopefully Phil can at least get a couple inches to salvage something out of this mess i dont' think this underperforms much at all...this was never going to be 7 or 8" out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 You also stay in an outhouse Have they cancelled schools in Tolland yet? 2-4" widespread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 i dont' think this underperforms much at all...this was never going to be 7 or 8" out here. By Kevin's metric it's an underperformer. If you were expecting 4" or 5" in Tolland this storm will disappoint all the way to the coast. This had some chance to come west but it was clear by yesterday morning it wasn't. That's why having the conservative forecast initially is 9 times out of 10 the way to go. Within 24-36 hours you can grab 'em and chuck 'em if you have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Sun out, patches of blue overhead. It's still cloudy to both my north and west, so I'm sure (?) this is just temporary. But even here where I as expecting minimal all along, seeing the sun is kind of funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 i dont' think this underperforms much at all...this was never going to be 7 or 8" out here. Hope you're right. It looked yesterday like you could get 5-7 or so. At any rate..enjoy whatever you get. Those pics you posted of the kids sledding on mulch the other day were just about right for 99% of SNE. Kids are very disappointed..Told them I would take them sledding today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 By Kevin's metric it's an underperformer. If you were expecting 4" or 5" in Tolland this storm will disappoint all the way to the coast. This had some chance to come west but it was clear by yesterday morning it wasn't. That's why having the conservative forecast initially is 9 times out of 10 the way to go. Within 24-36 hours you can grab 'em and chuck 'em if you have to. i was thinking 1-3" in CT...that'll end up high but admittedly i didn't look much out there. hrr smokes this region later this morning into the early afternoon - which lines up really nicely with when the globals and nam take the best lift over the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 i was thinking 1-3" in CT...that'll end up high but admittedly i didn't look much out there. hrr smokes this region later this morning into the early afternoon - which lines up really nicely with when the globals and nam take the best lift over the cape. Yeah I thought 1-3 here as well yesterday. By last night I pulled the plug. Some people had 2-5 or 3-6 in eastern CT. One station apparently had 5-10!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Sun out, patches of blue overhead. It's still cloudy to both my north and west, so I'm sure (?) this is just temporary. But even here where I as expecting minimal all along, seeing the sun is kind of funny. 28/25, sky has brightened but still have -sn. Radar to the west looks like some more -sn will move in for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Hope you're right. It looked yesterday like you could get 5-7 or so. At any rate..enjoy whatever you get. Those pics you posted of the kids sledding on mulch the other day were just about right for 99% of SNE. Kids are very disappointed..Told them I would take them sledding today After you crapped on me yesterday, now you know why I felt lousy about it outside of se areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Yeah I thought 1-3 here as well yesterday. By last night I pulled the plug. Some people had 2-5 or 3-6 in eastern CT. One station apparently had 5-10!!!! Your buddy Dixon and Hainey both had 3 inches in Western CT with up to 10 inches in Eastern Ct on the Thursday evening newscasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 By Kevin's metric it's an underperformer. If you were expecting 4" or 5" in Tolland this storm will disappoint all the way to the coast. This had some chance to come west but it was clear by yesterday morning it wasn't. That's why having the conservative forecast initially is 9 times out of 10 the way to go. Within 24-36 hours you can grab 'em and chuck 'em if you have to. So what you're saying is presaging the roads Friday morning in CT was probably not warranted? I think we will live with the fear from the last two winters for many years. I give it about two more years or this before people go back to screaming at weathermen vs the governor. I've got a solid coating here. Massive dendrites falling but not more than light. This one screams of dead man walking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 i was thinking 1-3" in CT...that'll end up high but admittedly i didn't look much out there. hrr smokes this region later this morning into the early afternoon - which lines up really nicely with when the globals and nam take the best lift over the cape. Yeah HRRR looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Yeah I thought 1-3 here as well yesterday. By last night I pulled the plug. Some people had 2-5 or 3-6 in eastern CT. One station apparently had 5-10!!!! that's insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 After you crapped on me yesterday, now Roy know why I felt lousy about it outside of se areas? Scooter I never crapped on you Scooter. Congrats..you got your wish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 that's insane. Yeah there was never the support for that outside of 2 rogue NAM runs. Euro was steadfast with lower QPF as were most of the globals. I will say that the ensembles did look impressive for a time with amped up solutions but we all knew that the southern s/w would be the problem and indeed it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 i don't think it's going to be all that bad by you...at all...3 or 4" shouldn't be hard to reach, IMO. don't you have some already on the ground? Yeah covered up nice but but but....hate to admit this but Kev was right about the angle of the dangle, and the warm ground here from the epic torch that has flowers blooming before valentines day is preventing any accumulation on roads. It's like a snowstorm in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Flurries up here in Center Harbor. Lots of ice fishers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 So what you're saying is presaging the roads Friday morning in CT was probably not warranted? I think we will live with the fear from the last two winters for many years. I give it about two more years or this before people go back to screaming at weathermen vs the governor. I've got a solid coating here. Massive dendrites falling but not more than light. This one screams of dead man walking. the fact that you've got a coating of snow already is a good sign. most progs were still liquid or mix at this point and really didn't flip things til after 9 or 10AM...bit earlier up your way. and the good lift is certainly still pegged to move over us. that hasn't changed. i think you're in good shape for some decent accumulations...though suppose it could end up slightly east of you but i wouldn't expect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Yeah covered up nice but but but....hate to admit this but Kev was right about the angle of the dangle, and the warm ground here from the epic torch that has flowers blooming before valentines day is preventing any accumulation on roads. It's like a snowstorm in April. yeah roadways might be a different issue...not sure but i think those will even cover over. i'm down to 33.3/31...most progs were like 36F right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Scooter I never crapped on you Scooter. Congrats..you got your wish LOL I'll bust probably for you but there was a reason I felt ****ty about this. Oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Man hrrr looks great for Phil. Congrats. BOX cancelled everything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Nothing in West Hartford? There's a heavy .2 on everything here. Not sure what's going on here...at work about to sleep for a few hours and don't feel like getting up to go to the door Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I felt like Ray and had half a bottle of JD last night after I saw the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 BOS futility or bust! 2011-2012 etched in the record books Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Hanging tough at 37/35 with all rain. Alot of warm water in CC Bay, ACK Sound and the Atlantic making it hard to cool the column. Very light NNW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Strong Feb 11 sun (j/k) quickly melting my driveway (not kidding). Neat seeing some pixie dust gstill glinting in the sunlight. May as well see if I can access enough wood through the snow to merit a burning permit. Nice day for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Hanging tough at 37/35 with all rain. Alot of warm water in CC Bay, ACK Sound and the Atlantic making it hard to cool the column. Very light NNW winds. Yeah that's the problem for you initially. Until you start ripping the northerly winds it will be tough to cool off much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.