NorEastermass128 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 44.8 / clouds increasing and thickening. Advisories up for much of E SNE. Some preliminary calls from me: BOS - 3.6" ORH - 2.7" PVD - 3.4" PLY - 5.5" BOU - 5.9" (Bourne, MA) HFD - 1.2" Others litchfieldlibations 2.5" Hubbdave 2.0" MPM 1.3" skiMRG 24.5" Overall a light to moderate event. Should be enough to shovel/plow though. Discuss. I think this comes down to a NOWCASTING event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think you may be too conservative with Pete's total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 It's kind of a long boring night, at least until midnightish. There's no "tell" here for hours...just kind of in limbo. If we were already seeing a major convective flareup off Florida we may have had an indication bad things were happening, not the case, about exactly what the 12h 12z euro forecast to the T there. The southern s/w appears to be running a bit north of even the 18z guidance. RUC seems to be adjusting that way too, stronger, maybe a smidge slower. I'd think that'd be a good thing. RUC surface progs are likely to be mostly useless outside of a few hours. At 500 it's been pretty good and matched the Euro pretty well for most of the day. It's just in the last few hours as things have really started to spin up that it seems to want to lag the earlier models...and water vapor seems to confirm. There's just absolutely nothing out there yet to refute the 12z Euro in principle...so...we wait and watch. EDIT: Can someone provide an up to date streamline and pressure fall analysis page? The coolwx site is so darn lagged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Hoping I get 3 inches here. Would be nice ;p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 44.8 / clouds increasing and thickening. Advisories up for much of E SNE. Some preliminary calls from me: BOS - 3.6" ORH - 2.7" PVD - 3.4" PLY - 5.5" BOU - 5.9" (Bourne, MA) HFD - 1.2" Others litchfieldlibations 2.5" Hubbdave 2.0" MPM 1.3" skiMRG 24.5" Overall a light to moderate event. Should be enough to shovel/plow though. Discuss. I think this comes down to a NOWCASTING event too. A little optimistic, I personally am not expecting over 20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 It's kind of a long boring night, at least until midnightish. There's no "tell" here for hours...just kind of in limbo. If we were already seeing a major convective flareup off Florida we may have had an indication bad things were happening, not the case, about exactly what the 12h 12z euro forecast to the T there. The southern s/w appears to be running a bit north of even the 18z guidance. RUC seems to be adjusting that way too, stronger, maybe a smidge slower. I'd think that'd be a good thing. RUC surface progs are likely to be mostly useless outside of a few hours. At 500 it's been pretty good and matched the Euro pretty well for most of the day. It's just in the last few hours as things have really started to spin up that it seems to want to lag the earlier models...and water vapor seems to confirm. There's just absolutely nothing out there yet to refute the 12z Euro in principle...so...we wait and watch. EDIT: Can someone provide an up to date streamline and pressure fall analysis page? The coolwx site is so darn lagged. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/sfccalc.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I think you may be too conservative with Pete's total. Shouldn't you be cleaning your room or doing homework. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuildingScienceWx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 It's kind of a long boring night, at least until midnightish. There's no "tell" here for hours...just kind of in limbo. If we were already seeing a major convective flareup off Florida we may have had an indication bad things were happening, not the case, about exactly what the 12h 12z euro forecast to the T there. The southern s/w appears to be running a bit north of even the 18z guidance. RUC seems to be adjusting that way too, stronger, maybe a smidge slower. I'd think that'd be a good thing. RUC surface progs are likely to be mostly useless outside of a few hours. At 500 it's been pretty good and matched the Euro pretty well for most of the day. It's just in the last few hours as things have really started to spin up that it seems to want to lag the earlier models...and water vapor seems to confirm. There's just absolutely nothing out there yet to refute the 12z Euro in principle...so...we wait and watch. EDIT: Can someone provide an up to date streamline and pressure fall analysis page? The coolwx site is so darn lagged. Try this out: http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Shouldn't you be cleaning your room or doing homework. Don't be bitter cause you will see 1 flake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Hatteras N wind 7mph 48/43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Va beach Oceana NAS s wind 3 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Been fun watching radars in Florida. Those heavy echoes just kept venting the tops off ENE and stayed pretty much in place. We're just now seeing the main batch move in from the GOM while we also see the precip off NC start to expand again and just maybe begin to lift north in the last frame or two. Confident the 0z will init well and probably won't have the issues models have periodically had with convection (aside of the euro apparently). At the same time a little nervous only in that there is so much of a convective element to this hoping it wasn't playing games with the models. Check out the training off the east coast of Florida. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=jax&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Any more nowcast explanations would be great. THis is a good learning storm IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Any more nowcast explanations would be great. THis is a good learning storm IMO I can't remember...I'm sure there were a couple particularly down here on the Cape (phil would know) any sizeable interior SNE snowstorms where 99% of the moisture is already off the east coast of the US at this point. Really threading the needle in having to get this precip due north. That's not in response to anything, just don't remember it ever providing a meaningful 4+ event with the core of what's to produce the snow having a hard time scraping Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tylertheweather Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Lightly snowing in Harrisburg and in Bradford, PA, but not in between where I am (State College). Raining at Atlantic City, lots of virga occurring right now in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Good site if you like to follow the pressure falls up the coast: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 based on radar and surface obs looks like lp might be 25-50 miles se of wilmington nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Well I don't really see anything earth shattering on radar or satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 Brisk and cloudy 40.8 Definitely has that springtime snow appeal. Neighbors burning good wood too. As us M***holes would say, "It smells like New Hampsha" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 http://vortex.plymou...du/sfccalc.html I think this Plym link gives you more options.http://vortex.plymouth.edu/sfcwx.html I'm hoping for 6-12 flakes up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I remember when the talk was that we wanted the southern s/w to go away or we'd have some issues. It's in the process of spinning up pretty well, that's pretty intense. Almost looks like there's a low pressure in the Gulf, at least a trough anyway. That s/w is so much stronger than modeled not long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Well I don't really see anything earth shattering on radar or satellite. Nope, regional radars to the west south and south west not promosing at all, and precip trajectory off the se coast does not scream surpise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Well I don't really see anything earth shattering on radar or satellite. the 18Z GFS came in real dry for BWI dropping < .1" qpf over 24 hrs, which is about half or less than other models and prior runs of the GFS I think this will disappoint up and down the coast as much as every system since 11/1 jmho....not that I like it understand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Dropped to 35 earlier and now up to 36 as clouds have thickened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I remember when the talk was that we wanted the southern s/w to go away. I think many of us still do. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I remember when the talk was that we wanted the southern s/w to go away or we'd have some issues. It's in the process of spinning up pretty well, that's pretty intense. Almost looks like there's a low pressure in the Gulf, at least a trough anyway. That s/w is so much stronger than modeled not long ago. You're talking about the southern stream energy being stronger right? The exact opposite of what we want lol. Oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I remember when the talk was that we wanted the southern s/w to go away or we'd have some issues. It's in the process of spinning up pretty well, that's pretty intense. Almost looks like there's a low pressure in the Gulf, at least a trough anyway. That s/w is so much stronger than modeled not long ago. Yeah I wish that didn't exist or we'd probably have a sizable miller B on our hands. Hopefully the southern stream ends up amped up enough though to send some moisture northwest...but overall its a hindrance IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Yeah I wish that didn't exist or we'd probably have a sizable miller B on our hands. Hopefully the southern stream ends up amped up enough though to send some moisture northwest...but overall its a hindrance IMHO. Yeah, too bad in one sense. If there was room for it to round the corner this would be great, but it appears it may shear in response. As it elongates hopefully it slings moisture north...but boy tight squeeze to make this happen. Getting a bit jittery now, not liking the fact that not only will it not weaken, it actually continued to peak as the models came in. You'd think at some point if it was much stronger and somewhat slower we'd have the opportunity to get a monster going closer to shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 25-30" for the Berkshires as we get annihilated under a 3-4" per hour death band and thundersnow. We end up right under the pivot point and we get smoked with 35-40 dBZ snow for 6 or more hours tomorrow afternoon and evening as the 700 mb low goes right over KTOL and the surface low goes near the CC canal. Only in my dreams...nice while it lasted. This winter has gotten to me like no other. Anyhow, not expecting much from this "event". Maybe an inch, perhaps two. Maybe we can get a little upslope from CAA after the low goes by and squeeze out a little more. As this will be a nowcasting event, more on that tomorrow as this unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 30/29, up from 28/22 about 90 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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