CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Yea it's the 186-224 time period, it is insane 970 ish off Delmarva to BM, control Run ECMWF 12Z We all know what the control run had for today. Weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 We all know what the control run had for today. Weenie Huh?, responded to Wills question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Honestly guys, it is worth getting a trial free subscription just to see this. The control run sometimes keys in on things that the operational run does not. You see how close it was today if things worked out just a little differently we could have gotten nailed. The control run of the Euro showed today's potential a week ago very nicely, although things did not come together perfectly. I can tell you that I only watch the control run to see if it is vastly different than the operational run. The control run is like 001 of the GFS ensembles. It is usually very much like the operational run, but when things look very different on the control run it is often a sign that there is potential. It of course does not mean it will work out, but when the control run is vastly different, it is at least a sign that there is potential and that it would only take very small changes to the operational run to produce vastly different results. You have a weather blog??? That's scary... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 You worst winter is probably in the upper teens. ORH's record is 21.2" Oh, alright then. I guess I'm probably 1-2" over futility then. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF CONTROL MODEL THAT JUST CAME OUT HAS A KU FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS NOT A JOKE!!! IT PRODUCES A BLIZZARD FOR EVERYONE FROM DC TO BOSTON AS IT BRINGS THE LOW FROM THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY TO THE DELMARVA ON SUNDAY MORNING AND BOMBS IT THERE TO A 978MB, THEN ONLY SLOWLY MOVES IT ENE FROM THERE ALMOST DUE EAST, KEEPING US IN THE HEAVY DEFORMATION BAND FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ON SUNDAY!! TOTAL PRECIP IS NEAR 2 INCHES AND 850'S ARE BELOW FREEZING FROM DC TO BOSTON THE ENTIRE TIME OF THE STORM. THE ONLY AREA CLOSE BY THAT GETS ABOVE FREEZING AT 850 IS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NJ ALONG THE COAST FOR A SMALL TIME PERIOD. LOL classic...probably one of my favorite posts of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 This threads off to a great start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 This threads off to a great start. Well, it will be rather loosely focused at a such a large lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I'm actually kind of optimistic about this threat cause of models trending towards a more amplified northern stream. If we can get that northern stream to trend stronger we're in biznass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I had mentioned a day or two ago that i wish this saturday would have been next saturday as that threat looked good being modeled a few days back, I think we have a legit chance with this one just by its track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Can we have a blizzard? Please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 I had mentioned a day or two ago that i wish this saturday would have been next saturday as that threat looked good being modeled a few days back, I think we have a legit chance with this one just by its track Yea, I just knew this past event was garbage all along, but it even turned out a hair worse than I had envisioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Yea, I just knew this past event was garbage all along, but it even turned out a hair worse than I had envisioned. At best, Todays was going to be a few inches, It was a whiif until the last couple of days and thats what ended up happening, I am onboard for next weekends storm though, Just the fact that it has more of a SWFE look to it makes me more encouraged then this last one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 At best, Todays was going to be a few inches, It was a whiif until the last couple of days and thats what ended up happening, I am onboard for next weekends storm though, Just the fact that it has more of a SWFE look to it makes me more encouraged then this last one Watch this one now head too far n of me....like the first round of winter. The past few have been all se of me. What a kick in the groin this season has been.....the only way it could get any worse is if a string of 1-3"ers cost me the record, yet I still manage not to see a significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Watch this one now head too far n of me....like the first round of winter. The past few have been all se of me. What a kick in the groin this season has been.....the only way it could get any worse is if a string of 1-3"ers cost me the record, yet I still manage not to see a significant event. I hope not, Honestly, I am hoping it stays south of you, But you know someone is going to get pooched being on the wrong side of the low, This one has the look of the ones back in 2008 where we got numerous SWFE's and we ended up with our 2nd snowiest winter up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 I hope not, Honestly, I am hoping it stays south of you, But you know someone is going to get pooched being on the wrong side of the low, This one has the look of the ones back in 2008 where we got numerous SWFE's and we ended up with our 2nd snowiest winter up here Well, when I say "go n of me" I am referring to the good snowfall zone, not the low itself. I don't think the latter will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Well, when I say "go n of me" I am referring to the good snowfall zone, not the low itself. I don't think the latter will occur. Anything right now is a possibilty in this winter, If it goes north of me it will be a real problem for most everyone that post on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 I really do not see this cutting....I'd be shocked if you saw big precip type issues. SNE is a bit more precarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I agree with you about SNE, There looks to be just enough cold air around and i look to be north of that gradient, But i don't need it taking a track over my head either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 I agree with you about SNE, There looks to be just enough cold air around and i look to be north of that gradient, But i don't need it taking a track over my head either The one scenario that I dread has probably a pretty good shot of occuring...and that is a couple of inches of slop, followed by rain. I'd either like a non event, mainly snow or all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 The one scenario that I dread has probably a pretty good shot of occuring...and that is a couple of inches of slop, followed by rain. I'd either like a non event, mainly snow or all rain. Thats possible, The airmass is not all that cold that will be around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 snow to rain where it washes away all the snow is like a punch to the gut or a quick jab to the groin......uncalled for and annoying i honestly don't remember any of these situation in the 2.5 years now of winter in SNE since i got back in 2009-2010 season. yes some were snow that ended as period of drizzle or light rain...but not to the point there was bare ground that i can recall. so ya ray were probably overdue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 Thats possible, The airmass is not all that cold that will be around No....of course the arctic plunge is another dry heave....as they all have been. Warms up just enough for the next event to suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 snow to rain where it washes away all the snow is like a punch to the gut or a quick jab to the groin......uncalled for and annoying i honestly don't remember any of these situation in the 2.5 years now of winter in SNE since i got back in 2009-2010 season. yes some were snow that ended as period of drizzle or light rain...but not to the point there was bare ground that i can recall. so ya ray were probably overdue What I am overdue for is a bonafide plowable event. I haven't see one since Feb 27, 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 No....of course the arctic plunge is another dry heave....as they all have been. Warms up just enough for the next event to suck. It certainly has sucked this year, When we have had the artic air around we have had no storms or it moves out just in time for the next system to track west of us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Boston hasn't seen a real snow event since last January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 It certainly has sucked this year, When we have had the artic air around we have had no storms or it moves out just in time for the next system to track west of us.. 1980's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 1980's. I try to forget that decade, There were some poor winters in those years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 I try to forget that decade, There were some poor winters in those years Thankfully, I was too young to appreciate just how bad they were....I didn't know what winter was til Dec 1992. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Euro takes the low out of SW texas and tracks it NE off the east coast around LI @ 1004 mb at hr 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 UGH....that is not pretty east of GC from the sound of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 UGH....that is not pretty east of GC from the sound of it. Ehh...as long as it tracks S of us we still have a chance. Verbatim, 850s are below 0C, but the BL is torching fast. But yeah, not a great run for anybody for that matter. If we could get some cyclogenesis, maybe we could save the BL. Otherwise it's snowing at 850, but raining and 36 at ground level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.