CT Rain Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Can the MJO really be forecast accurately 3 weeks out? I thought it was in Phase 8 right now, that didn't seem to help. I'm feeling a rogue event in March for some reason...I just can't picture us being completely shut out the rest of the way but I suppose stranger things have happened..like 2 feet of snow on October 29th. Very solid/strong MJO wave. We are seeing the impacts of little blocking and eventually Nina like se ridging flexing. I think this winter may wrap up after whatever we get next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Better DS blocking is why this didn't look like the zero zee run, so that's something I suppose. Not worried about the long term pattern frankly, just trying to take each opportunity as they come.....There's still some cold around so you guys north of I-84 can cash in and perhaps all of us, even torchfield.... Have fun chasing fantasy storm number 22 this season, I was in Norwalk this morning, it was sad you dont even have snowbanks left over from jan 21, oh thats right you never got into that band of snow! Text me if you want to meet us out later, I will buy you a drink, hey.............its only ten days away, what a freezing weekend. brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Very solid/strong MJO wave. We are seeing the impacts of little blocking and eventually Nina like se ridging flexing. I think this winter may wrap up after whatever we get next weekend. Futility record cancel uncancel? Even though ORH is a few inches over their worst winter on record I'm only at 20" that has to be a record...it's not even 30% of my seasonal average...no way to know though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Very solid/strong MJO wave. We are seeing the impacts of little blocking and eventually Nina like se ridging flexing. I think this winter may wrap up after whatever we get next weekend. LOL you said winter will wrap up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Just throwing this out. Every progged system of niceness has failed....all of them since October. Why should this one not? Because this one is coming at a time of blocking near Greenland...blocking that has shown up consistently on the models for quite a while. I think we get this one. Then maybe another and then maybe we are done, but we'd have had some fun. Scott doesn't like the airmass but the blocking should help and you can see the CAD signal in the isobaric bend. And the airmass is fine up here and in Center Harbor in that setup... HPC updates maps have a primary transferring to a low tucked in east of jersey and s of LI. This is our stretch...let's get ready to enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 This is a serious infraction. Forgive me Father for I have sinned.... As a Jew that is about as far as I can go with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 isn't there only one phase in the MJO during a NINA where 500mb heights are below normal on ave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Have fun chasing fantasy storm number 22 this season, I was in Norwalk this morning, it was sad you dont even have snowbanks left over from jan 21, oh thats right you never got into that band of snow! Text me if you want to meet us out later, I will buy you a drink, hey.............its only ten days away, what a freezing weekend. Lol.....I'll withhold fire for now....(4-8" with norluns and inverted troughs)....pluralized lol. Thanks for the offer bro, we're all set...... Here's to Summer 2012 and the Beach :sun: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 LOL you said winter will wrap up. Lol wrapped up on 10/30 I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Because this one is coming at a time of blocking near Greenland...blocking that has shown up consistently on the models for quite a while. I think we get this one. Then maybe another and then maybe we are done, but we'd have had some fun. Scott doesn't like the airmass but the blocking should help and you can see the CAD signal in the isobaric bend. And the airmass is fine up here and in Center Harbor in that setup... HPC updates maps have a primary transferring to a low tucked in east of jersey and s of LI. This is our stretch...let's get ready to enjoy it. 850 temps of -2. Meh. That better have a cold boundary layer with those temps. I can't tell without seeing it for myself, but seems like the same bullsh1t air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Very solid/strong MJO wave. We are seeing the impacts of little blocking and eventually Nina like se ridging flexing. I think this winter may wrap up after whatever we get next weekend. One snowstorm next weekend and that should do it. Zero lawn cleanup this year. Cleaned it up after winter ended in early November. Lawns will green up in record time this year. leaf out mid-late March ..black flies starting April 1 ish...not much mud due to Ginx's ongoing severe drought..Uconn out of the tourney...baseball season almost upon us and another Yankees division championship while the Sox flounder around .500. lots to look forward to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 850 temps of -2. Meh. That better have a cold boundary layer with those temps. I can't tell without seeing it for myself, but seems like the same bullsh1t air mass. come on Scott...look at the high pressure, look at the CAD signal. You really think the airmass will be a problem in most of New England in that set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Futility record cancel uncancel? Even though ORH is a few inches over their worst winter on record I'm only at 20" that has to be a record...it's not even 30% of my seasonal average...no way to know though. You worst winter is probably in the upper teens. ORH's record is 21.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Euro ensemble mean actually looks pretty nice on this threat...but we have a good 2-3 more days until there's reason to take it seriousl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Euro ensemble mean actually looks pretty nice on this threat...but we have a good 2-3 more days until there's reason to take it seriousl. I'm more optimistic because it isn't a thread the needler....it is a good set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I'm more optimistic because it isn't a thread the needler....it is a good set up. Its kind of a marginal airmass but its good enough that the setup is ok for the interior...there's a high north of Maine which isn't bad. Still, the whole threat is predicated on that positive anomaly in the west NAO region, and if it doesn't hold up, then it will just be a warm cutter assuming we do get a trough ejecting out of the plains. I'd wait until at least Monday before really determining if the setup is good or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Its kind of a marginal airmass but its good enough that the setup is ok for the interior...there's a high north of Maine which isn't bad. Still, the whole threat is predicated on that positive anomaly in the west NAO region, and if it doesn't hold up, then it will just be a warm cutter assuming we do get a trough ejecting out of the plains. I'd wait until at least Monday Friday before really determining if the setup is good or not. How I see it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I'm not sure what the euro ensembles looked like but were they at least showing something here next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF CONTROL MODEL THAT JUST CAME OUT HAS A KU FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS NOT A JOKE!!! IT PRODUCES A BLIZZARD FOR EVERYONE FROM DC TO BOSTON AS IT BRINGS THE LOW FROM THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY TO THE DELMARVA ON SUNDAY MORNING AND BOMBS IT THERE TO A 978MB, THEN ONLY SLOWLY MOVES IT ENE FROM THERE ALMOST DUE EAST, KEEPING US IN THE HEAVY DEFORMATION BAND FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ON SUNDAY!! TOTAL PRECIP IS NEAR 2 INCHES AND 850'S ARE BELOW FREEZING FROM DC TO BOSTON THE ENTIRE TIME OF THE STORM. THE ONLY AREA CLOSE BY THAT GETS ABOVE FREEZING AT 850 IS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NJ ALONG THE COAST FOR A SMALL TIME PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 21 buns for that guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 21 buns for that guy. I was looking at NJ area AFDs to see if some NWS site was hacked by a weenie ALL CAPS FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 come on Scott...look at the high pressure, look at the CAD signal. You really think the airmass will be a problem in most of New England in that set up? Having a high is nice but doesnt mean much if airmass is marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF CONTROL MODEL THAT JUST CAME OUT HAS A KU FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS NOT A JOKE!!! IT PRODUCES A BLIZZARD FOR EVERYONE FROM DC TO BOSTON AS IT BRINGS THE LOW FROM THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY TO THE DELMARVA ON SUNDAY MORNING AND BOMBS IT THERE TO A 978MB, THEN ONLY SLOWLY MOVES IT ENE FROM THERE ALMOST DUE EAST, KEEPING US IN THE HEAVY DEFORMATION BAND FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ON SUNDAY!! TOTAL PRECIP IS NEAR 2 INCHES AND 850'S ARE BELOW FREEZING FROM DC TO BOSTON THE ENTIRE TIME OF THE STORM. THE ONLY AREA CLOSE BY THAT GETS ABOVE FREEZING AT 850 IS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NJ ALONG THE COAST FOR A SMALL TIME PERIOD. Ok, I'll buy milk and bread tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Honestly guys, it is worth getting a trial free subscription just to see this. The control run sometimes keys in on things that the operational run does not. You see how close it was today if things worked out just a little differently we could have gotten nailed. The control run of the Euro showed today's potential a week ago very nicely, although things did not come together perfectly. I can tell you that I only watch the control run to see if it is vastly different than the operational run. The control run is like 001 of the GFS ensembles. It is usually very much like the operational run, but when things look very different on the control run it is often a sign that there is potential. It of course does not mean it will work out, but when the control run is vastly different, it is at least a sign that there is potential and that it would only take very small changes to the operational run to produce vastly different results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Posting the same thing in the NYC subforum I'll go get mys snowblower out of the shed and 10 gallons of high test Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 The control run is worse than the OP...so if you want a worse OP Euro, you can go for it. Are you even talking about the Feb 17-18 threat? Because that one is more like Thursday night into Fri...it sounds like you are talking about the storm that the Euro has go out to sea on the 19-20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Just saw some of the long range guidance and it does have a couple of chances, but who knows at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF CONTROL MODEL THAT JUST CAME OUT HAS A KU FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS NOT A JOKE!!! IT PRODUCES A BLIZZARD FOR EVERYONE FROM DC TO BOSTON AS IT BRINGS THE LOW FROM THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY TO THE DELMARVA ON SUNDAY MORNING AND BOMBS IT THERE TO A 978MB, THEN ONLY SLOWLY MOVES IT ENE FROM THERE ALMOST DUE EAST, KEEPING US IN THE HEAVY DEFORMATION BAND FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ON SUNDAY!! TOTAL PRECIP IS NEAR 2 INCHES AND 850'S ARE BELOW FREEZING FROM DC TO BOSTON THE ENTIRE TIME OF THE STORM. THE ONLY AREA CLOSE BY THAT GETS ABOVE FREEZING AT 850 IS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NJ ALONG THE COAST FOR A SMALL TIME PERIOD. FIIIIIIIIIIIYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYAHHHHH!!!! We salute you! :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 The control run is worse than the OP...so if you want a worse OP Euro, you can go for it. Are you even talking about the Feb 17-18 threat? Because that one is more like Thursday night into Fri...it sounds like you are talking about the storm that the Euro has go out to sea on the 19-20th. Yea it's the 186-224 time period, it is insane 970 ish off Delmarva to BM, control Run ECMWF 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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