ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 is the nogaps a red flag also will at this point is there any hope for you to trend the vortmax more south Yeah the Euro went back south a little and the Ukie held there..but the problem is that its pretty weak...we need it a little stronger to generate any good lift. Otherwise we will end up with generally under 0.25" of qpf and light precip which probably means little or no accumulating snow outside the very highest areas. Euro was trying to show a little burst that wetbulbs us close to freezing between 00z and 03z on Thu night, but I'm skeptical the precip is ever heavy enough unless we can trend this a little stronger. What we wanted to see was a pretty potent vortmax plowing straight into NYC/LI area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Pickles really wants this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 POS and OTS, joy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 POS and OTS, joy Better than a frigid RA+ from Hartford to Montreal, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 12z Euro is crap up here. 534dm thickness and 33F at 6z in Februrary. Thats what happens when ya got a crappy s/w and no antecedant cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Well 18z name puts 0.5" qpf over Thornton. At least there's a chance of 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 This was never supposed to be anything big so I don't know why anyone in NNE is pissing and moaning over it...especially with how boring it has been over the last couple weeks. It may be a glop fest here with RA turning to SN/RASN, but 1kft+ has a chance for a few inches. Considering I have no measureable snow yet this month I'll take any accums I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 This was never supposed to be anything big so I don't know why anyone in NNE is pissing and moaning over it...especially with how boring it has been over the last couple weeks. It may be a glop fest here with RA turning to SN/RASN, but 1kft+ has a chance for a few inches. Considering I have no measureable snow yet this month I'll take any accums I can get. No one is pissing and moaning. More like trying to wrap their heads around how all of New England cannot maintain sub freezing temps as a vortmax passes south of New England. Thats 2011-2012 for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I will own up as a pisser and moaner. I suggest a title change to "looking like a POS" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Pickles really wants this storm. nah ...i mean i would like someone in the area to enjoy snow ...and i will route for it to snow on them this had been dead in the water for anyone near the coast since day 1....minus a boxing day type model turnaround i'd like to see some one at 1k get .25 qpf for the love of christ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 LOL this thread died quickly.... on to the next threat (and always more exotic)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 SREFS like the berks for like 2-3"...MRG will probably sneak in 2.6" Thursday night at 2K and we'll get tons of posts about how winter is alive and well...while for the rest of us its a non accumulating RA/SN or just plain RA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 SREFS like the berks for like 2-3"...MRG will probably sneak in 2.6" Thursday night at 2K and we'll get tons of posts about how winter is alive and well...while for the rest of us its a non accumulating RA/SN or just plain RA. How about NORH? Anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 LOL this thread died quickly.... on to the next threat (and always more exotic)... Enjoy your snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 How about NORH? Anything? Old srefs gave ORH like a 25% shot at 1". 21z srefs are even worse and even take away the 4" probs that the 15z run had for the berks. I'm guessing best case is a coating on the grass for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Ah, well. Low expectations = low disappointment this year I wish someone was getting snow, even if it wasn't me. Logan11 deserves some, as do the Maine folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Enjoy your snows. LOL what snows? Its more like passing snow showers with rain showers in the lower valleys. We'll get more snow from any NW flow a day after the system than we will with that ugly looking thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 LOL what snows? Its more like passing snow showers with rain showers in the lower valleys. We'll get more snow from any NW flow a day after the system than we will with that ugly looking thing. Looks like 1-3" above 1500ft with non accumulating snow below that. Profiles are cold enough for snow everywhere but at the surface. I could see Mansfield getting 3-5" while Stowe village gets a coating on colder surfaces lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Looks like 1-3" above 1500ft with non accumulating snow below that. Profiles are cold enough for snow everywhere but at the surface. I could see Mansfield getting 3-5" while Stowe village gets a coating on colder surfaces lol Roger Hill mentioned 2-4 for the mountains in his broadcast this morning, so that seems generally on track with your thoughts. The forecast around here has been a bit nebulous and difficult to follow. For the past few days I’ve been checking in on this potential storm, but the thread seems to have died as PF mentioned earlier. I didn’t even see the BTV NWS talking about it in their forecast discussion when I checked last night; they focused on various small impulses and fronts coming through, of which I guess this is one. Whatever the case, the Mansfield point forecast from last night sure looked a heck of a lot livelier than it has over the past week or two: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 9srefs came in really dry outside se ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 GYX thinking 2-4" where it's likely to be all snow - probably meaning 1,500'+ in the mts. Now 2 full weeks with only T precip, and only 2 days with even a trace. My worst Feb for snow here was 2006, with 3.3". Only 0.2" so far this Feb (and even that fell 9P-midnight on 1/31, as my obs day runs 9P to 9P.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 GYX thinking 2-4" where it's likely to be all snow - probably meaning 1,500'+ in the mts. Now 2 full weeks with only T precip, and only 2 days with even a trace. My worst Feb for snow here was 2006, with 3.3". Only 0.2" so far this Feb (and even that fell 9P-midnight on 1/31, as my obs day runs 9P to 9P.) Yeah this month is going to come in atrocious on the snowfall stats... Today's my day off so I don't have the snowfall spreadsheets with me but I don't think I've had even 6" on the 3,000ft snow board so far this month. The 3.0" from two days ago was the largest snowfall in 10 days but there might have been something right around Feb 1-3. I don't remember off the top of my head. I mean we are talking 6" or less, halfway through a month that the past 5 years has averaged in the 60-70" range. That is astounding to me. We are on pace for like 20% or less of normal this month. I know saying 6" so far sounds low for the mountains, but remember Mansfield tends to average 5-7 feet per month during the winter months up in the 3,000-4,000ft band... so this is very, very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Trying to grasp how torched the BL is on the NAM with such a cold upper profile. Should be a 3-6 deal if we had a normal winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Roger Hill mentioned 2-4 for the mountains in his broadcast this morning, so that seems generally on track with your thoughts. The forecast around here has been a bit nebulous and difficult to follow. For the past few days I’ve been checking in on this potential storm, but the thread seems to have died as PF mentioned earlier. I didn’t even see the BTV NWS talking about it in their forecast discussion when I checked last night; they focused on various small impulses and fronts coming through, of which I guess this is one. Whatever the case, the Mansfield point forecast from last night sure looked a heck of a lot livelier than it has over the past week or two: This thing is basically dead in the water for areas below 1,000ft I think. Qpf is extremely light and drawn out, and with BL temps 35-40F it wont accumulate. Also, I know people have tried to ignore it, but the sun angle is working against us in these light events as well. Areas above 1,500ft may squeeze out 1-2" while higher summits pick up 2-5" of fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 This thing is basically dead in the water for areas below 1,000ft I think. Qpf is extremely light and drawn out, and with BL temps 35-40F it wont accumulate. Also, I know people have tried to ignore it, but the sun angle is working against us in these light events as well. Areas above 1,500ft may squeeze out 1-2" while higher summits pick up 2-5" of fluff. Who cares about sun angle when this occurs between 00z and 12z? The 18z NAM has 2m temps of 32-34F for most of NNE during the precip. I could see the BL still being a problem in the lower els if we roast with sun all day tomorrow. It's definitely an ugly system, but hopefully some spots can squeak out 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Somehow, in 12 hr (quoting today's 2 AFDs from GYX) this "event" changed from "redevoping off Delmarva and passing south of NS" to "going down the St.Lawrence Valley". Maybe I read it wrong. Anyway, the earlier 2-4" for mts is now down to 1" and mixing even up there. At 385', I'll be fortunate to get slush. 2011-12 continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Who cares about sun angle when this occurs between 00z and 12z? The 18z NAM has 2m temps of 32-34F for most of NNE during the precip. I could see the BL still being a problem in the lower els if we roast with sun all day tomorrow. It's definitely an ugly system, but hopefully some spots can squeak out 1-2". We have been close to 40F the last 2 days and then again tomorrow with some sun. I think this comes in earlier than 0z Friday for western locales as well (maybe 20z?). With cloud cover I would be surprised if lower elevations of the Champlain Valley and southern and central VT/NH get below 32F Thursday night. I think the Lakes region has a chance as does the NEK of picking anything up at lower elevations (below 1000') and even here it'll be paltry with qpf running .10"-.15". Send a forecast out for my forecast app class shortly, which will be sent out as a vtrans forecast tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Who cares about sun angle when this occurs between 00z and 12z? The 18z NAM has 2m temps of 32-34F for most of NNE during the precip. I could see the BL still being a problem in the lower els if we roast with sun all day tomorrow. It's definitely an ugly system, but hopefully some spots can squeak out 1-2". Even if I get a couple of inches the new snow has no durability. My area is still 85% snow covered with tough grandular snow. Any new snow falling on grass will melt quickly within a day or two. It will be fun tomorrow night to see if I stay snow at 1100 feet or go to rain. Ice skating has been great on my pond and a couple of inches of snow will mess it all up. I don't care anymore even though I should know better than it is pretty impossible to go from Feb 15th to spring without more events. ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Forecast I sent out: Onset of precip for NEK: 6PM-9PM in the form of light snow with temperatures 33-35F throughout the evening. Periods of light snow through the night with temperatures lowering to 28-32F throughout the region. Snow accumulation 0.3"-1.5". Highest amounts above 1,500 feet. Light snow tapering to flurries by mid morning Friday. Highs Friday 36-40F. Additional snow accumulation 0.0"-1.0". Highest amounts above 1,500ft. Forecaster: EV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Closer we get, The worst it looks, I would definitly forego this one for sunday if it works out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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