ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 We want the vortmax to stay a little more robust than the NAM has it...otherwise you end up with lighter QPF and less dynamical cooling. It looks like a 32-34F paste for higher terrain but if we got a bit better lift, we probably could cool it to 30-32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Yeah low elevations are cold enough for snow I think...but surface temps are like 35F (at least) and rates aren't all that great...so maybe a coating on the grass at 10pm Thursday gone by morning...great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 POS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 POS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 POS It is on the nam, And marginal on the others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The vortmax that tracks from PIT to NYC is what we want to deepen on future runs to give it a more dynamical appeal. You'll get better height falls and better lift and it would increase the chances at a nice little 3-6" pasting for the higher terrain...if we keep it weaker like the NAM shows, we end up with lighter precip and a general 1-3" of slop in the hills with temps generally above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Hopefully we can get this thing out of NNE by 18z Friday so I can experience it and take measurements, but drive safely home in order to catch my dad's birthday on Saturday and catch a flight to Ft. Myers Sunday! Hopefully we can get this out of here early enough Friday for me my RON'ing plane to arrive Friday night for my departure to the Teton's on Saturday! Although I have to admit, a little fun in the sun doesn't sound bad either. But hey, I'm not complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Hopefully we can get this out of here early enough Friday for me my RON'ing plane to arrive Friday night for my departure to the Teton's on Saturday! Although I have to admit, a little fun in the sun doesn't sound bad either. But hey, I'm not complaining. I'm up in VT. It's a wee bit nippy up here, with little snow compared to usual. Palm trees cure everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Nam was just about done with the storm by the end of its run, 84hr, so I think everything would be out of the area by midday Friday at the very latest, probably earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The vortmax that tracks from PIT to NYC is what we want to deepen on future runs to give it a more dynamical appeal. You'll get better height falls and better lift and it would increase the chances at a nice little 3-6" pasting for the higher terrain...if we keep it weaker like the NAM shows, we end up with lighter precip and a general 1-3" of slop in the hills with temps generally above freezing. I really think for most in SNE, outside of the Berks and maybe up near Wachusett over 1200', have little to hope for. Unless the lonely NAM can score a coup, it's gonna be too warm for a lot of weenies. CNE/NNE there is still some hope, however; if the vortmax isn't more robust, this thing is a flat POS that gives the mountains 1-3" and the valleys will get like 1" of 5:1 slop at 32F that doesn't accumulate on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Nam was just about done with the storm by the end of its run, 84hr, so I think everything would be out of the area by midday Friday at the very latest, probably earlier. well at that range the nam isn't that great at determining much (someone correct if i wrong) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Nam was just about done with the storm by the end of its run, 84hr, so I think everything would be out of the area by midday Friday at the very latest, probably earlier. It's pretty safe to say IMO that it'll be outta here by midday Friday. Not too worried, and even if its still snowing, it'll be above freezing on I-91 in the valley so the roads will be just wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I really think for most in SNE, outside of the Berks and maybe up near Wachusett over 1200', have little to hope for. Unless the lonely NAM can score a coup, it's gonna be too warm for a lot of weenies. CNE/NNE there is still some hope, however; if the vortmax isn't more robust, this thing is a flat POS that gives the mountains 1-3" and the valleys will get like 1" of 5:1 slop at 32F that doesn't accumulate on the roads. I think higher areas of SNE are very much in the game for a few inches...just as long as expectations are set there and not some 6" event. It might end up too warm, but given all guidance shows very marginal profiles, I think its way to early to rule out some snow in the hills. Hills of N ORH county, Monads and Berkshires are all definitely in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 fixed Winter 2011/2012 = POS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Color me stupid but WTF is up with late spring snow profiles in mid Feb, two in a row. 6-1 ratios on grassy surfaces even in the hills of Wills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 With the trends this year in the last 24hrs on a lot of events i would not rule anything out for anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Color me stupid but WTF is up with late spring snow profiles in mid Feb, two in a row. 6-1 ratios on grassy surfaces even in the hills of Wills. Its what you get when you have a lack of a fresh cold source. I think the lack of consistent snow pack across a lot of the northeast and lakes is hurting too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 With the trends this year in the last 24hrs on a lot of events i would not rule anything out for anyone I am ruling out accumulating snow IMBY trend or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I think higher areas of SNE are very much in the game for a few inches...just as long as expectations are set there and not some 6" event. It might end up too warm, but given all guidance shows very marginal profiles, I think its way to early to rule out some snow in the hills. Hills of N ORH county, Monads and Berkshires are all definitely in the game. I do agree they're "in the game" for some snow, but we both know people will over do this marginal into something its not LOL. But yes, especially with elevation I do think some parts of the ORH hills, Berks, and Monads are game on ATM. I actually thought of the Monads as CNE but that a whole other debate. Someone could see 3-6" out of this, but its a question of whether it'll be in the southern greens/monads/northern Berks or somewhere in NNE remains to be seen based on a number of parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I do agree they're "in the game" for some snow, but we both know people will over do this marginal into something its not LOL. But yes, especially with elevation I do think some parts of the ORH hills, Berks, and Monads are game on ATM. I actually thought of the Monads as CNE but that a whole other debate. Someone could see 3-6" out of this, but its a question of whether it'll be in the southern greens/monads/northern Berks or somewhere in NNE remains to be seen based on a number of parameters. I would certainly tell everyone to keep expectations to a minimum...there's a lot more ways for it not to snow than to get it out of this system...but certainly worth keeping an eye on. I'm not expecting much of anything here at the moment, however, if we can trend the s/w a little deeper while passing underneath us then it might get a bit more interesting than light snow that has trouble accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 GFS looks really paltry and diffuse with the vortmax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 LOL gfs, congrats on 1-3" elevations of NNE, slop valley, and nothing south of southern NH. That barely even counts as a storm as modeled on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Lucky to get an inch or two in the hills on the 00z GFS...very paltry QPF with a the weaker and more diffuse vortmax. It did lower the wetbulb 0 height down this way though compared to 18z...but its kind of irrelevant with such a weak system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 GFS is horrible, Develops the secondary over Novie.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 00z Ukie is quite a bit more robust with the vortmax as it tracks over NYC than the GFS was (GFS was diffuse and further north with the vortmax) and as a result it has a much healthier slug of precip moving in. Would probably offer a chance at advisory type accumulations for the higher terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 will i hope you get advisory snow out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 0z gfs gives advisory snow for the weekend system for the Cary, NC area 3-4" (western burb of raleigh) and warning snows from greensboro, NC to winston salem, 6-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Thank god I got off my comp before the gfs came out. 1" of slop? lol no thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Euro is quite robust with the vortmax but its further north and tracks across CNE rather than south of us so that would make it difficult to get much snow...it helps to torch the BL that way. It actually phases the s/w a bit with the pv lobe dipping down which is different than keeping it separate. It would probably wetbulb early on in the high terrain to snow but then switch back to rain before maybe ending as snow again...overall not a very good run because of further north vort track. Gotta get that to track to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Euro is quite robust with the vortmax but its further north and tracks across CNE rather than south of us so that would make it difficult to get much snow...it helps to torch the BL that way. It actually phases the s/w a bit with the pv lobe dipping down which is different than keeping it separate. It would probably wetbulb early on in the high terrain to snow but then switch back to rain before maybe ending as snow again...overall not a very good run because of further north vort track. Gotta get that to track to the south. is it like a S VT to say CON track for the vortmax? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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