HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 We'll probably see 6 more vastly different outcomes over the next 3-4 days... Remember when models used to generally have an ideas as to what was going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 We'll probably see 6 more vastly different outcomes over the next 3-4 days... Remember when models used to generally have an ideas as to what was going on? Nope. Can anyone else never get the 15z srefs to update on NCEP? 3z,9z, and 21z are fine, by 15z never update. It's odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 this system at 84 hours may break a little colder... Could see wet snow at 700ft els west of 495 and N of the Pike. Not talking huge amounts - no. But 540 dm thickness cuts through CT and RI , and the 850 is +1 at start and -1 in interior zones midway on through, showing there is some dynamics in play. it's too early in the season to commit loudly to boundary layer issues from solar...although there will be some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Nope. Can anyone else never get the 15z srefs to update on NCEP? 3z,9z, and 21z are fine, by 15z never update. It's odd. They're fine for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 What is the best case scenario here for someone... 3-6"? It just doesn't seem like a juicy system to begin with... even if you stay all snow, 2-4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 this system at 84 hours may break a little colder... Could see wet snow at 700ft els west of 495 and N of the Pike. Not talking huge amounts - no. But 540 dm thickness cuts through CT and RI , and the 850 is +1 at start and -1 in interior zones midway on through, showing there is some dynamics in play. it's too early in the season to commit loudly to boundary layer issues from solar...although there will be some. Kevin loves you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Well, good trends on 18z but its the nam and gfs on an "off" hour...so we'll have to see what the 00z runs bring. Looks like it may start as snow here but its brief on the 18z gfs. Few more ticks south and we're in business for a nice 5" wet snowfall...but I wouldn't bet on it this year. Even if this were to tick south, ratios would be like 8:1 with marginal temps throughout the profile from 850mb on down lol so even if some got .50" qpf, they'd probably get 2-4" but thats based off the 18z GFS which just isnt a smart thing to do in general.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 What is the best case scenario here for someone... 3-6"? It just doesn't seem like a juicy system to begin with... even if you stay all snow, 2-4"? Maybe 2-4" in the Monads or something. Ratios will be sh*t lol even up our way. Jackpot may end up being an area of 3-5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 this system at 84 hours may break a little colder... Could see wet snow at 700ft els west of 495 and N of the Pike. Not talking huge amounts - no. But 540 dm thickness cuts through CT and RI , and the 850 is +1 at start and -1 in interior zones midway on through, showing there is some dynamics in play. it's too early in the season to commit loudly to boundary layer issues from solar...although there will be some. Well it's looking more like a 21z-12z event so solar shouldn't be much of a factor...especially ENE. The thing that may suck is waiting to wetbulb down to 32-34F in the 500-1000ft zone in CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Well it's looking more like a 21z-12z event so solar shouldn't be much of a factor...especially ENE. The thing that may suck is waiting to wetbulb down to 32-34F in the 500-1000ft zone in CNE. Could be the case for some even in NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 That's what a lot of guidance was doing several days ago before the midlevel energy starting shifting and causing the really late secondary lp Would not mind if it formed sooner here as it would probably stay all snow as it would be colder in the mid levels and at the surface as well as long as it does not form any further south or its a fringe job here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 They're fine for me. Weird. The rest update except for 15z. Even if this were to tick south, ratios would be like 8:1 with marginal temps throughout the profile from 850mb on down lol so even if some got .50" qpf, they'd probably get 2-4" but thats based off the 18z GFS which just isnt a smart thing to do in general.. Yeah, I guess 5" would be best case for someone. I would love 3" of wet snow right now though. That's a stretch right now though and would take a serious cold trend at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Well some solid trends today overall for much of SNE. Still some work to be done..but things looking better than they were this morning. At least it 'll give us some hope and something to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Well some solid trends today overall for much of SNE. Still some work to be done..but things looking better than they were this morning. At least it 'll give us some hope and something to track Key. Boring weather is no fun on here, especially in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 GEFS look SE and colder, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 GEFS look SE and colder, no? Nothing earth shattering there. GEFS typically are SE and colder...except last event when they were more amped up and proved to be wrong anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Nothing earth shattering there. GEFS typically are SE and colder...except last event when they were more amped up and proved to be wrong anyway. That actually happened in Snowtober too. They showed .75" qpf into NW VT and we ended up getting .10" lol. Is it a resolution error when that happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 GEFS look SE and colder, no? chuck em deep ..strong and long only after a hit from the bong but i know you were just pointing it out and not throwing a party so it's is nicer to see then a cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 This is probably the last opportunity to open Campton mountain. No snowmaking and when I was last up there there was only about 5" of dense icy pack. I'd think they'd need a good 6" to consider opening. What are the chances of this? elevation of the mountain is around 1100-1500' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 This is probably the last opportunity to open Campton mountain. No snowmaking and when I was last up there there was only about 5" of dense icy pack. I'd think they'd need a good 6" to consider opening. What are the chances of this? elevation of the mountain is around 1100-1500' Could get a few pasty inches Friday, but even that would make their pack 6-10"...pretty risky considering the money involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 This is probably the last opportunity to open Campton mountain. No snowmaking and when I was last up there there was only about 5" of dense icy pack. I'd think they'd need a good 6" to consider opening. What are the chances of this? elevation of the mountain is around 1100-1500' i had never heard of it, so I looked it up. Neat little place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 As of now, my coefficient of interest in this event is practically nil. Even if colder solutions verify, BL temperatures are going to be warm anywhere below 1K in SNE and CNE. Without snowpack and the high mid-February sun angle, I'd expect many in SNE outside of snow covered areas in GC to torch into the 40s since I don't think the precipitation arrives until about 18Z (west) to 21Z (east). This leaves several hours of filtered sun to warm things up. Even much of CNE below 1K will probably be well above freezing at the onset. Since the precipitation will likely be on the light side, it will take a long time for things to cool to the point where we can get accumulating snow. As we saw with the 12/23 event, these top to bottom cooling scenarios are often a problem unless you have a good ageostrophic cold air drain from the north and/or strong UVVs from a bombing storm. Above 1K and north of the Pike things look a bit better for some minor accumulations (1-3" 1-1.5K, 3-5" 1.5-2K). The ski areas of NNE and CNE may get a low end moderate snowfall if things come together. South of the Pike and below 1K, this is primarily a rain event. North of the Pike and below 1K, this is likely a wet snow and rain mix that doesn't really accumulate to more than a coating to an inch. It will take a much stronger and faster developing secondary to yield some fruit. As of now, I just don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 As of now, my coefficient of interest in this event is practically nil. Even if colder solutions verify, BL temperatures are going to be warm anywhere below 1K in SNE and CNE. Without snowpack and the high mid-February sun angle, I'd expect many in SNE outside of snow covered areas in GC to torch into the 40s since I don't think the precipitation arrives until about 18Z (west) to 21Z (east). This leaves several hours of filtered sun to warm things up. Even much of CNE below 1K will probably be well above freezing at the onset. Since the precipitation will likely be on the light side, it will take a long time for things to cool to the point where we can get accumulating snow. As we saw with the 12/23 event, these top to bottom cooling scenarios are often a problem unless you have a good ageostrophic cold air drain from the north and/or strong UVVs from a bombing storm. Above 1K and north of the Pike things look a bit better for some minor accumulations (1-3" 1-1.5K, 3-5" 1.5-2K). The ski areas of NNE and CNE may get a low end moderate snowfall if things come together. South of the Pike and below 1K, this is primarily a rain event. North of the Pike and below 1K, this is likely a wet snow and rain mix that doesn't really accumulate to more than a coating to an inch. It will take a much stronger and faster developing secondary to yield some fruit. As of now, I just don't see it. Can't you just lie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 It's 84 hours out, but here are the srefs out of their range: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 As of now, my coefficient of interest in this event is practically nil. Even if colder solutions verify, BL temperatures are going to be warm anywhere below 1K in SNE and CNE. Without snowpack and the high mid-February sun angle, I'd expect many in SNE outside of snow covered areas in GC to torch into the 40s since I don't think the precipitation arrives until about 18Z (west) to 21Z (east). This leaves several hours of filtered sun to warm things up. Even much of CNE below 1K will probably be well above freezing at the onset. Since the precipitation will likely be on the light side, it will take a long time for things to cool to the point where we can get accumulating snow. As we saw with the 12/23 event, these top to bottom cooling scenarios are often a problem unless you have a good ageostrophic cold air drain from the north and/or strong UVVs from a bombing storm. Above 1K and north of the Pike things look a bit better for some minor accumulations (1-3" 1-1.5K, 3-5" 1.5-2K). The ski areas of NNE and CNE may get a low end moderate snowfall if things come together. South of the Pike and below 1K, this is primarily a rain event. North of the Pike and below 1K, this is likely a wet snow and rain mix that doesn't really accumulate to more than a coating to an inch. It will take a much stronger and faster developing secondary to yield some fruit. As of now, I just don't see it. Yup. Some have commented on that already, but its great to have a certified met. to reinforce it. BL temps are awful even into some portions of NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I love the weird things the SREFs do... Hey, I am in a zone for 8"+...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 00z nam is similar to 18z. Even it places that stay all snow, it doesn't have more then .30-.40" qpf...so maybe a 2-5" sf...tops. Looks like interior SNE could start off as brief snow, maybe a small accumulation for elevated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Can't you just lie? LOL...wish I could. I think you'll get a 2-3" type deal where you are, maybe 4" at 2K. 00Z NAM seems to support this FWIW. Synoptically, the weekend event *may* have a bit more potential. We'll see how it plays out. It won't work if we have too many players on the field that fail to come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 00z nam is similar to 18z. Even it places that stay all snow, it doesn't have more then .30-.40" qpf...so maybe a 2-5" sf...tops. Looks like interior SNE could start off as brief snow, maybe a small accumulation for elevated areas. NAM actually seems to be the least robust with this. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out over the next few days. Seems like even its colder, there's not much qpf...most other models have more qpf and a stronger low, thus more warm air getting drawn into the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Hopefully we can get this thing out of NNE by 18z Friday so I can experience it and take measurements, but drive safely home in order to catch my dad's birthday on Saturday and catch a flight to Ft. Myers Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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