40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 Who cares. Well, if you aren't interested in this threat, Will isn't forcing you to read the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 BOX doesn't seem to be ruling out interior snow yet: THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHAT WILL BE THE FORM OF THE PRECIPITATION. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THE WINTER...THERE IS LITTLE COLD AIR TO WORK WITH PRECEDING THIS SYSTEM. WHILE THINGS CAN CHANGE THIS FAR OUT...MAINLY RAIN IS FAVORED FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME WET SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. WHETHER THIS COMES TO FRUITION WILL DEPEND UPON THE EXACT TRACK AND AMOUNT OF FORCING/DYNAMICAL COOLING THAT OCCURS. THIS IS OBVIOUSLY UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...BUT SOMETHING WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON. Gee, an AFD is leaving open the possibility for some snow from a system in mid Feb across the higher terrain of the distant interior, with 84 hrs lead...what a bold statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I think weatherMA had like 4-5" of slop in that storm at 475 feet while I had almost a foot on winter hill at over 900 feet. yes i was out driving in that storm.......i recall it was ekster's bday and he treated himself to huge flakes in diamond hill RI with that fire hose of precip just blasting N RI/ORH county....even got a inch or so in burlington, ma (but none 2 exits east of 34) from the biggest snow flakes i have seen in my life ..(@ 230am 'ish) when i got home they started mixing in and they were bigger than anything i have ever seen and i will always recall that it looked like 4-5 stuck together and when they would land on the wet ground it was like a big chunk of "snush". like literal snowballs falling out of the sky. not half dollar size flakes but these things had volume was very odd to me. but anyway enough of me ranting.....the CP is torched in this one...but i still find it interesting to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 What were 900mb temps on the Euro? Verbatim it did look kind of crappy for MBY..but it wasn't far off from something much better...if it develops the secondary a bit sooner we'd probably be in business. I'm not expecting much of anything at this point, but keeping an eye on it to see if it develops sooner. The ensembles really popped the low once it got south of us...so there's some hope there. 925 temps were wetbulbing down to 30 right near the NH/MA border by 06z Friday. That's kind of why I thought you could start as some snow, but it warms to 35F near the MA/CT border and the 30F line moves into SNH by 12z. If that low could develop a bit more, it would probably be close to a 150mb isothermal blue bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Right now seems like a 50/50 maybe 40/60 chance that the elevation in all of SNE see some snow..IMO it's this one or none..cuz the weekend one looks OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 925 temps were wetbulbing down to 30 right near the NH/MA border by 06z Friday. That's kind of why I thought you could start as some snow, but it warms to 35F near the MA/CT border and the 30F line moves into SNH by 12z. If that low could develop a bit more, it would probably be close to a 150mb isothermal blue bomb. That's Wills magic # of 35 on the Euro..35 and it snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 That's Wills magic # of 35 on the Euro..35 and it snows Not 35F at 925mb. 35F or so at the surface is usually where you can think snow, because sometimes models will underestimate temps...especially this time of year. The threshold might even be higher..like 36 or 38F or so at the surface, because models starting getting climo taint. I think you'll be lucky to see a half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 That's Wills magic # of 35 on the Euro..35 and it snows N ot at 925mb...that's the sfc temp I'll often look at if the MLs are cold enough...he's giving 925mb temps and 35F would def be too warm. But its a close call on the Euro...it almost reminds me a bit of 2/22/09...we wetbulbed to heavy snow at the beginning but the BL really torched and we actually flipped to a R/S mix for hours before it went back to snow...we ended up with like 3-4" of slop...could have been a 10" paste bomb. Then events like 2/24/10 were just cold enough and we ended up with the paste bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Not 35F at 925mb. 35F or so at the surface is usually where you can think snow, because sometimes models will underestimate temps...especially this time of year. The threshold might even be higher..like 36 or 38F or so at the surface, because models starting getting climo taint. I think you'll be lucky to see a half inch. Pretty ballsy to call that so confidently 3-4 days out.. Hope you're wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 N ot at 925mb...that's the sfc temp I'll often look at if the MLs are cold enough...he's giving 925mb temps and 35F would def be too warm. But its a close call on the Euro...it almost reminds me a bit of 2/22/09...we wetbulbed to heavy snow at the beginning but the BL really torched and we actually flipped to a R/S mix for hours before it went back to snow...we ended up with like 3-4" of slop...could have been a 10" paste bomb. Then events like 2/24/10 were just cold enough and we ended up with the paste bomb. Was I rain in both those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Was I rain in both those? In 2/22/09 you were...in the 2/24/10 storm you started as snow and got like 5" but then went to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Pretty ballsy to call that so confidently 3-4 days out.. Hope you're wrong Me too. If I'm wrong and we mentioned this earlier...it's because the low nuked to your south, but just looks ugly. I didn't guarantee it...just how I feel right now. If I had to make a forecast, it would probably include some of both, but my gut says it sucks for you. Maybe you get an inch or two if this can start off strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 N ot at 925mb...that's the sfc temp I'll often look at if the MLs are cold enough...he's giving 925mb temps and 35F would def be too warm. But its a close call on the Euro...it almost reminds me a bit of 2/22/09...we wetbulbed to heavy snow at the beginning but the BL really torched and we actually flipped to a R/S mix for hours before it went back to snow...we ended up with like 3-4" of slop...could have been a 10" paste bomb. Then events like 2/24/10 were just cold enough and we ended up with the paste bomb. wow did that hammer SW interior maine http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/displayEvent.php?event=Feb_22_2009&element=gust (have to click "hide" on the 3 wind graphics and "show" on the 3 snow graphics) bc it's listed under wind event on google search Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Me too. If I'm wrong and we mentioned this earlier...it's because the low nuked to your south, but just looks ugly. I didn't guarantee it...just how I feel right now. If I had to make a forecast, it would probably include some of both, but my gut says it sucks for you. Maybe you get an inch or two if this can start off strong. Is it more likely I start as snow or end as snow IYO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 In 2/22/09 you were...in the 2/24/10 storm you started as snow and got like 5" but then went to rain. I don't recall the 09 one..Now I know why lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 wouldn't blizz be asleep for the snow anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Well, thats interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Is it more likely I start as snow or end as snow IYO? Well, it looks like starting as snow would be your best bet. The reason, is that I think as the precip moves in, the mid levels may be just cold enough so that you could be like a 34F snow. As winds turn nw and colder air comes back, I think precip mostly shuts off. If the low can develop sooner, you could do a little better. 95% of the time you would probably get 5" of snow then sleet while Will gets like 7" or something..lol. Even starting as snow could be tough for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 18z would be a decent event outside the coastal plain, factor in climo, and the fact the gfs develops a low south of long island by a good amount, and everyone might be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zecmwfens850mbWinds096.gif seems most everyone would think it will trend warmer than the latest euro ens just based on this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 18z would be a decent event outside the coastal plain, factor in climo, and the fact the gfs develops a low south of long island by a good amount, and everyone might be happy. Yeah wow...18z GFS is much quicker with the secondary and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 wow did that hammer SW interior maine http://www.erh.noaa....09&element=gust (have to click "hide" on the 3 wind graphics and "show" on the 3 snow graphics) bc it's listed under wind event on google search Yeah, I did well in that storm here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Normally, this would have folks talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 18z would be a decent event outside the coastal plain, factor in climo, and the fact the gfs develops a low south of long island by a good amount, and everyone might be happy. NAH mid levels FTL barely they flip just after hour 84 cept for GC on that one but close in reality i would think the ML's wouldn't rise from 84 to 90 given the LP progs but what do i know....it would prolly be a N of pike elevation snow look at hr 90 850's......0c at nh/ma border till you go out west of ct river valley and dips down toward pete.....very close. not sure how GPS is with mid level temps but low position and development looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 GFS still a bit torched in the BL down this way, but its certainly better than 12z run. But it has mostly snow pretty close by in N ORH county where the BL is more of an isothermal blue snow...so its worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 http://raleighwx.ame...0mbWinds096.gif/ seems most everyone would think it will trend warmer than the latest euro ens just based on this winter Too bad there is an L over E. Ontario instead of an H... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yeah wow...18z GFS is much quicker with the secondary and colder. Yeah that's what is needed. What a change from 12z..lol. It's still a little mild from 950 on down, especially south of the Pike (being serious Kev..but you want something like that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 18z GFS moves the low due east out below SNE , All the other guidance takes the low into the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 18z GFS moves the low due east out below SNE , All the other guidance takes the low into the GOM That's what a lot of guidance was doing several days ago before the midlevel energy starting shifting and causing the really late secondary lp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Well, good trends on 18z but its the nam and gfs on an "off" hour...so we'll have to see what the 00z runs bring. Looks like it may start as snow here but its brief on the 18z gfs. Few more ticks south and we're in business for a nice 5" wet snowfall...but I wouldn't bet on it this year. I think weatherMA had like 4-5" of slop in that storm at 475 feet while I had almost a foot on winter hill at over 900 feet. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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