OKpowdah Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 thread for the weekend east coast storm threat ... so snowNH doesn't start one... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32665-219-east-coast-winter-storm-threat/ Might as well keep talking about the Friday storm here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Bob or anyone want to change the date of this one to 2/16-17 and then we can use Sam's for Sunday's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 3-7 for the hills? Lolli's to 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Who cares. That about sums it up. The web posting pages to inches in Boston is running about 1000 to 1 so far this winter. The model probably most accurate in the last week has been the GGEM, primary over Buffalo and a secondary/triple point over Kev and Ginny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I changed the title. Keep this thread about the Friday system and use Sam's for any weekend discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 That about sums it up. The web posting pages to inches in Boston is running about 1000 to 1 so far this winter. The model probably most accurate in the last week has been the GGEM, primary over Buffalo and a secondary/triple point over Kev and Ginny. I know this is still a shtty track for most, but this would do wonders for ski country here in VT. GEM is the closest and strongest with the secondary and this would make for a nice 6" fresh base for a busy weekend after it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 BTV still thinks rain for Friday up here. P/C for 800ft: Thursday Night: Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday: Rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 It'll be tough for anyone in the southern New England states I think. Even the valleys of southern VT and NH will have trouble accumulating more than 1" I think per latest data. if the primary is far enough west and not too strong...1004? how strong could that sse flow get? obviously we want earlier secondary and trend to more confluence. Is that possible or likely here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 if the primary is far enough west and not too strong...1004? how strong could that sse flow get? obviously we want earlier secondary and trend to more confluence. Is that possible or likely here? The problem is that the antecendant airmass is marginal to begin with..upper 20s to lower 30s. basically anything that tracks west will draw in enough BL warmth to flip lower elvations in CNE over fairly quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 As long as the MLs are cold enough, I will keep snow on the table for the elevated interior for SNE...most guidance has marginal profiles for snow here, so its certainly still in the equation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The problem is that the antecendant airmass is marginal to begin with..upper 20s to lower 30s. basically anything that tracks west will draw in enough BL warmth to flip lower elvations in CNE over fairly quickly. You guys will often warm your BL faster than we do here in C NH with SE flow in the low levels. If we do pop a secondary south of here I won't be extremely concerned about torching here, but obviously a crappy BL is still on the table. Most of it falls in the morning hours on the Euro so that will help with marginal 2m temps of 32-33F accumulation wise. We'll have to see how it trends, but accums are still on the table up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Here's BTV afternoon AFD and its take on this: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY FEATURE IN THE 7-DAY FCST PERIOD STILL ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS MODEST GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON LOWER TO MID LVL THERMAL PROFILES AS BROAD WAA ALOFT CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS WILL STAY IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO PRIOR THINKING OFFERING A WIDESPREAD...THOUGH GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODEST RAIN/SNOW EVENT TO OUR AREA. SOME MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESP EAST OF THE GREENS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO WET BULBING EFFECTS...THOUGH EVEN HERE P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS DURING FRIDAY AS NEAR SFC LVLS WARM. PRIMARLY RAIN EXPECTED IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS. HIGHS U30S TO L40S ON THURSDAY...COOLING ONLY MODESTLY OR HOLDING STEADY THURSDAY NIGHT (MAINLY 30S) DUE TO SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. BY LATER FRIDAY DEEPER MOISTURE AND BEST WAA/UVM PROGRESS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING A GRADUAL LESSENING IN PCPN COVERAGE. AS SUPPORTED BY RELIABLE OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE SOLNS...MODEST OFFSHORE COASTAL REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PROVIDE LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR AREA. THAT SAID...UPPER TROUGHING WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BY LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...AND WITH LINGERING MOISTURE DEVELOPING CAA/NWRLY FLOW SOME OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHSN STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET IN FAVORED NRN MTN LOCALES. HIGHS FRIDAY STILL MILD (U30S TO M40S)...THEN SEASONABLY COOLER (20S) FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND PARENT SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 18z nam is colder, SE, and juicier FWIW. Looks like a few inches on the front end for the elevated interior if I'm reading it correctly. Mostly from 00z to 6z and beyond. Not really sure what is up with the gfs having it start midday Thursday, but it is alone with that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 We'll see. Totally different storm. Similar to ones we had earlier this winter in January, compared to the ones we've had in early Februrary. We've had storms in Feb? Must've slept thru them. However, the Friday event seems to be real, and maybe the foothills are far enough NW to get something nice. Or maybe not... Edit: GYX afternoon update sees a bit of snow Thurs night and mostly rain for Fri, even into the mts, for a mid-Feb LP that stays well south. Bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 As long as the MLs are cold enough, I will keep snow on the table for the elevated interior for SNE...most guidance has marginal profiles for snow here, so its certainly still in the equation It would be nice if the lower levels weren't so furnaced with se flow ahead of the storm. Seems like even your area could start out as some snow..probably better into SW NH where you can get upslope cooling and better mid level temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 It would be nice if the lower levels weren't so furnaced with se flow ahead of the storm. Seems like even your area could start out as some snow..probably better into SW NH where you can get upslope cooling and better mid level temps. A lot will depend on how soon the secondary pops...it will turn the flow more easterly and limit the BL warming...NAM sort6 of does this...Euro almost, but it was a bit warmer with temps in the 36-37F range here...given that it tends to run a tad warm at the sfc, we'd probably see the highest spots as snow...could be one of those systems where 1200 feet picks up a decent snowfall while 400 feet gets not much of anything. If it trends later with the secondary then we will probably be out of luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 A lot will depend on how soon the secondary pops...it will turn the flow more easterly and limit the BL warming...NAM sort6 of does this...Euro almost, but it was a bit warmer with temps in the 36-37F range here...given that it tends to run a tad warm at the sfc, we'd probably see the highest spots as snow...could be one of those systems where 1200 feet picks up a decent snowfall while 400 feet gets not much of anything. If it trends later with the secondary then we will probably be out of luck. Yay! 18z nam shows this I think...also has temps getting well into the 40s during the day Thursday so that would probably limit stickage because temps fall around 00z as the precip moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yay! 18z nam shows this I think...also has temps getting well into the 40s during the day Thursday so that would probably limit stickage because temps fall around 00z as the precip moves in. A NAM type solution would be more favorable for all of us...it would even give you accumulating snow...but its the NAM, lol. Euro really wasn't far off though...just a tick warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 As long as the MLs are cold enough, I will keep snow on the table for the elevated interior for SNE...most guidance has marginal profiles for snow here, so its certainly still in the equation ski mrg nzuck MPM hubbdave orh wx man CT blizz ice warrior commander all in the game (perhaps close to that order) cookset chief on the bubble not sure what the shrewsbury posters elevation is ill probably take a snow tube to green hill park off skyline drive......like i did in the oct snowstorm....that was going well in all until on like the 10'th run the tube exploded as i was on it. it sure stopped fast with no air in it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 ski mrg nzuck MPM hubbdave orh wx man CT blizz ice warrior commander all in the game (perhaps close to that order) cookset chief on the bubble I'd rather be ChocksettChief than CT_blizz in this setup even if he gives away 300 feet of elevation...0C mid-level temps may get into CT which could make BL issues moot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 A NAM type solution would be more favorable for all of us...it would even give you accumulating snow...but its the NAM, lol. Euro really wasn't far off though...just a tick warmer. I thought the nam looked good for a few inches...but no one commented on it so I thought I was wrong. I guess it being the 18z nam at 78 hours is why no one commented. Regardless, the nam sim radar at 81 looks beautiful with 25dbz band in mass and everyone north of KTOL snowing. At this point I'd be pumped for 2" followed by rain...but that might be a stretch unless we can trend towards the 18z nam and even colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I'd rather be ChocksettChief than CT_blizz in this setup even if he gives away 300 feet of elevation...0C mid-level temps may get into CT which could make BL issues moot. MLK 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 ski mrg nzuck MPM hubbdave orh wx man CT blizz ice warrior commander all in the game (perhaps close to that order) cookset chief on the bubble not sure what the shrewsbury posters elevation is ill probably take a snow tube to green hill park off skyline drive......like i did in the oct snowstorm....that was going well in all until on like the 10'th run the tube exploded as i was on it. it sure stopped fast with no air in it. lol 475' I'm probably screwed but I'll be on here for the next 3 days hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 MLK 2010. Most of these marginal setups favor that area more..Feb 23-24, 2010 too, and 2/22/09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 A lot will depend on how soon the secondary pops...it will turn the flow more easterly and limit the BL warming...NAM sort6 of does this...Euro almost, but it was a bit warmer with temps in the 36-37F range here...given that it tends to run a tad warm at the sfc, we'd probably see the highest spots as snow...could be one of those systems where 1200 feet picks up a decent snowfall while 400 feet gets not much of anything. If it trends later with the secondary then we will probably be out of luck. Yeah we were commenting on that earlier, but I think it really needs to crank to get areas south of I-90...and even your area. I just thought it looked bad..even the euro looked warm at 925mb, and I subtracted a couple of degrees with that. Maybe a burst of lift cools the column just enough. Perhaps having it come at night might help with a degree or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 475 isn't that horrible. just camp out at the top of ski ward near 700' . I love elevation events....there was one last year in late march or april where my little hill in fram. got like 5 inches of snow....at a mere 300' and like 120' in town had like 2.5 . and when i drove over to brimstone lane (600') about 4 miles NE there was def more but by the time i got there it was settled and some was melting...i think fitchburg jpotted in that one...but that little hill in nobscot may have been very close (i remember the qpf in that one was higher right in that area as well) there is something very cool about elevation events to me. also the october (17'th) 2009 snow on wachusett was about 1.5 inches at 1050' and 4' at 1350'. it seems rare but sometimes 250 feet makes a world of difference. just look at the difference between like 875' in feb 25 2010 and 600' in like KFIT or prolly even ORH . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yeah we were commenting on that earlier, but I think it really needs to crank to get areas south of I-90...and even your area. I just thought it looked bad..even the euro looked warm at 925mb, and I subtracted a couple of degrees with that. Maybe a burst of lift cools the column just enough. Perhaps having it come at night might help with a degree or two. What were 900mb temps on the Euro? Verbatim it did look kind of crappy for MBY..but it wasn't far off from something much better...if it develops the secondary a bit sooner we'd probably be in business. I'm not expecting much of anything at this point, but keeping an eye on it to see if it develops sooner. The ensembles really popped the low once it got south of us...so there's some hope there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 You guys will often warm your BL faster than we do here in C NH with SE flow in the low levels. If we do pop a secondary south of here I won't be extremely concerned about torching here, but obviously a crappy BL is still on the table. Most of it falls in the morning hours on the Euro so that will help with marginal 2m temps of 32-33F accumulation wise. We'll have to see how it trends, but accums are still on the table up here. I agree some light accumulations of up to maybe 4" are possible, especially in NH and ME. Lets see how everything goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 We've had storms in Feb? Must've slept thru them. However, the Friday event seems to be real, and maybe the foothills are far enough NW to get something nice. Or maybe not... Edit: GYX afternoon update sees a bit of snow Thurs night and mostly rain for Fri, even into the mts, for a mid-Feb LP that stays well south. Bizarre. We've had threats* sorry. Many tracked well south and east. That was my point lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 475 isn't that horrible. just camp out at the top of ski ward near 700' . I love elevation events....there was one last year in late march or april where my little hill in fram. got like 5 inches of snow....at a mere 300' and like 120' in town had like 2.5 . and when i drove over to brimstone lane (600') about 4 miles NE there was def more but by the time i got there it was settled and some was melting...i think fitchburg jpotted in that one...but that little hill in nobscot may have been very close (i remember the qpf in that one was higher right in that area as well) there is something very cool about elevation events to me. also the october (17'th) 2009 snow on wachusett was about 1.5 inches at 1050' and 4' at 1350'. it seems rare but sometimes 250 feet makes a world of difference. just look at the difference between like 875' in feb 25 2010 and 600' in like KFIT or prolly even ORH . I think weatherMA had like 4-5" of slop in that storm at 475 feet while I had almost a foot on winter hill at over 900 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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