OKpowdah Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The setup really isn't bad at all. Some key players there, but good God..look at 500mb. It's got shortwaves galore. However, a few tweaks would bring snow to Phil. I know. What DT doesn't mention is that the Euro is keying in on a different northern s/w than for instance the 00z and 06z GFS did for its storm. There's a lot of energy pouring onshore in the west that has to be handled by the models. One EXCELLENT trend is the tendency to split the vortex that forms to our northeast, with one lobe over Newfoundland and the other over the Great lakes / Southern Ontario. In the weeniest of weenie dreams, this shows a few similarities to March 2001, should the Great Lakes lobe drop south ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Has anyone seen the control run of the UKMET? Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I don't know, 850's only briefly go to 0c here, They stay -4c for most of the storm friday 925mb temps look like they get to 32-33F for you on Friday, but you would be snow beforehand I think. Could be an isothermal blue bomb or close to it for you. Maybe just a bit more inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I don't know, 850's only briefly go to 0c here, They stay -4c for most of the storm friday Yeah, the antecedent airmass is garbage by late week and there'll be decent WAA ahead of this. I think we will stay snow, but probably will def get above freezing by late morning Friday. The damage may be done by then, but I'm just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 But seriously, it almost does... lol BTW.. I, ME, SNOWNH is starting the thread for this storm when I get home! I am the only.member to get a snowstorm to SNE this met winter... so Kevin Ray or BOB don't start one. Starting to get amped Quick...someone start that thread first - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 925mb temps look like they get to 32-33F for you on Friday, but you would be snow beforehand I think. Could be an isothermal blue bomb or close to it for you. Maybe just a bit more inland. Right. It may be mashed taters all morning Friday with temps 32-34F. Temp profile below 900mb look like crap for most outside interior NW Maine and Extreme N NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I know. What DT doesn't mention is that the Euro is keying in on a different northern s/w than for instance the 00z and 06z GFS did for its storm. There's a lot of energy pouring onshore in the west that has to be handled by the models. One EXCELLENT trend is the tendency to split the vortex that forms to our northeast, with one lobe over Newfoundland and the other over the Great lakes / Southern Ontario. In the weeniest of weenie dreams, this shows a few similarities to March 2001, should the Great Lakes lobe drop south ... it also handles the srn s/w a bit different too. 00z might focus on another s/w, but I guess the overall pattern to me isn't that bad. I know we even touched on it yesterday, but there is still a lot of work to do if we want something of any consequence. At least NNE has the Friday deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 925mb temps look like they get to 32-33F for you on Friday, but you would be snow beforehand I think. Could be an isothermal blue bomb or close to it for you. Maybe just a bit more inland. Thanks Scott, Yeah, Not seeing 925's was my concern that we maybe borderline, But we shall see how it plays out over the next couple of days, Any snow is good snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 But seriously, it almost does... lol BTW.. I, ME, SNOWNH is starting the thread for this storm when I get home! I am the only.member to get a snowstorm to SNE this met winter... so Kevin Ray or BOB don't start one. Starting to get amped This is at least the second time you've reminded everyone of this. First - No one cares gives a sh*t. Second - What makes you think that the person who starts a thread has any outcome on a storm scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I don't know, 850's only briefly go to 0c here, They stay -4c for most of the storm friday Looks good for you especially if it trends a little better. This run probably even starts N ORH hills/SW NH with some snow, maybe 1" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 Sam, great post.....you're growing into a fine met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Looks good for you especially if it trends a little better. This run probably even starts N ORH hills/SW NH with some snow, maybe 1" or so. It'll be tough for anyone in the southern New England states I think. Even the valleys of southern VT and NH will have trouble accumulating more than 1" I think per latest data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Sam, great post.....you're growing into a fine met. He's got a point witht he PV lobe splitting. Good ob on his part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 This is at least the second time you've reminded everyone of this. First - No one cares gives a sh*t. Second - What makes you think that the person who starts a thread has any outcome on a storm scenario? hey we have to get good ju ju from somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Looks good for you especially if it trends a little better. This run probably even starts N ORH hills/SW NH with some snow, maybe 1" or so. Yes, We will see snow and maybe a breif mix and if things trend better we stay all snow 3-5" not out of the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 It'll be tough for anyone in the southern New England states I think. Even the valleys of southern VT and NH will have trouble accumulating more than 1" I think per latest data. Well...I'll hold out hope until last minute...still time for it to trend better but not much I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Well...I'll hold out hope until last minute...still time for it to trend better but not much I guess... There's still time. 84hrs out lol We all know what has happened in 84hrs this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 It might snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 There's still time. 84hrs out lol We all know what has happened in 84hrs this year True. Hopefully this can trend SE last minute like Saturday did. Of course, this one won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Who cares. At this point, weather is weather. Its something to track. Rain or snow, its better than 45F and sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 True. Hopefully this can trend SE last minute like Saturday did. Of course, this one won't. We'll see. Totally different storm. Similar to ones we had earlier this winter in January, compared to the ones we've had in early Februrary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 At this point, weather is weather. Its something to track. Rain or snow, its better than 45F and sun. Took less than 5 minutes for someone to bite....lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 What's a control run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Took less than 5 minutes for someone to bite....lol... Bored in FORTRAN class. Might as well bite..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 3-7 for the hills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 BOX doesn't seem to be ruling out interior snow yet: THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHAT WILL BE THE FORM OF THE PRECIPITATION. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THE WINTER...THERE IS LITTLE COLD AIR TO WORK WITH PRECEDING THIS SYSTEM. WHILE THINGS CAN CHANGE THIS FAR OUT...MAINLY RAIN IS FAVORED FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME WET SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. WHETHER THIS COMES TO FRUITION WILL DEPEND UPON THE EXACT TRACK AND AMOUNT OF FORCING/DYNAMICAL COOLING THAT OCCURS. THIS IS OBVIOUSLY UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...BUT SOMETHING WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 3-7 for the hills? 10-15" GC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 3-7 for the hills? North of the pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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