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Feb 17 Storm Disco I - looking like a POS special


40/70 Benchmark

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He wastes no time.

‎*** ALERT *** ALERT ***ALERT .... this is No drill ... 12Z EURO BRING in MUCH strong SE US LOW HEAVY SNOW to all of central and eastern VA --over 6 inches and much of Northern NC ... this not a drill... WOOF WOOF BARK WOOF

Good lord. The same model will show a lakes cutter tomorrow.

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I don't think it makes that much of a difference...and also, it's not that far south.

well may not matter for bos/cape but 12z yesterday 850 was in portsmouth,nh today it's over bourne bridge (for ENE) and for WNE it was in S. Vt yesterday at 12z fri today it was cent. nj)

so i think this shows good trend and if you can't go that far..it is better for N orh hills monads i would think.

i guess we need a bombing secondary in the CP with this airmass but this run is good for will and KTOL...no?

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Ah hahahahahah. that D6 Euro is pretty damn close to the JMA from yesterday....

Also - the "control run" of the Euro - i guess. it'd help if we could see this control thing rather than going on blind faith.

"hey, i just ran the nexium interpolator model - duck, guys. just duck "

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well may not matter for bos/cape but 12z yesterday 850 was in portsmouth,nh today it's over bourne bridge (for ENE) and for WNE it was in S. Vt yesterday at 12z fri today it was cent. nj)

so i think this shows good trend and if you can't go that far..it is better for N orh hills monads i would think.

i guess we need a bombing secondary in the CP with this airmass but this run is good for will and KTOL...no?

BL torch.

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well may not matter for bos/cape but 12z yesterday 850 was in portsmouth,nh today it's over bourne bridge (for ENE) and for WNE it was in S. Vt yesterday at 12z fri today it was cent. nj)

so i think this shows good trend and if you can't go that far..it is better for N orh hills monads i would think.

i guess we need a bombing secondary in the CP with this airmass but this run is good for will and KTOL...no?

gracias...where I am the trend it crucial on this one...looks like we have a shot a solid advisory snows with maybe Jeff or Eric getting low end warning.

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gracias...where I am the trend it crucial on this one...looks like we have a shot a solid advisory snows with maybe Jeff or Eric getting low end warning.

I'm telling you, the SSE flow is going to torch the BL well into NNE. Probably a non event outside the northern greens/white/interior Maine.

Even here in NE VT I think it's borderline.

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The setup really isn't bad at all. Some key players there, but good God..look at 500mb. It's got shortwaves galore. However, a few tweaks would bring snow to Phil.

I don't like the lack of good riding to the west. I'm not sure what exactly is going to force the northern stream to dig enough to phase with this thing. Other than that it is a nice setup.

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LOL

What would be even funnier is if the N stream SPV fragment that is dangling N of Lake Superior on D6 comes sinking S to phase in... Those type of subsume scenario are how you get your finest events. It's already partially doiing so on this run at D7 but misses by just that much in a full on phase.

Might yet happen on tonights Euro run... If so, the outlandish JMA and control run of the Euro get a nod all the sudden - ha

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I'm telling you, the SSE flow is going to torch the BL well into NNE. Probably a non event outside the northern greens/white/interior Maine.

Even here in NE VT I think it's borderline.

per this euro what is the elevation necessary. i mean 1500' in NH i think should be fine w/ a low track as modeled

also there's some hints of bagginess on the pressure fields in CNE with that high NNE of maine

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I don't like the lack of good riding to the west. I'm not sure what exactly is going to force the northern stream to dig enough to phase with this thing. Other than that it is a nice setup.

If you look at 500mb, there is some ridging, but it's not very nice looking. It's more the Atlantic side that look "better" if you want to call it that. There is a lot of work to be done for this to come closer, but the setup at 500mb isn't that bad right now...especially being over 6 days out.

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but seriously, it doesn't.

But seriously, it almost does... lol

BTW.. I, ME, SNOWNH is starting the thread for this storm when I get home! I am the only.member to get a snowstorm to SNE this met winter... so Kevin Ray or BOB don't start one.

Starting to get amped

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per this euro what is the elevation necessary. i mean 1500' in NH i think should be fine w/ a low track as modeled

also there's some hints of bagginess on the pressure fields in CNE with that high NNE of maine

Yeah I think higher elevations in Central and northern VT/NH will do ok and creep above freezing by late morning Friday unfortunately. This happened earlier this year where there was a decent CAD signal with a weak high to our NNE and the Euro consistently showed 2m above 32F by daybreak on the day of the storm and most (including me and many of my forecasting colleagues at LSC) discounted it because of the strong CAD signal. Turned out that we went above 32F at 830AM that morning instead of our progged 12PM time.

I believe it was 1/28.

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