Tropopause_Fold Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 If the dam low could just redevelop sooner and not have the primary so strong, it would be a cool event for at least the interior. The primary fooks everything up. The GFS does try to develop it south of LI, but even if you assume the GFS as a couple of ticks too warm..still too little too late for many. i was more hopeful yesterday afternoon that interior areas might go snow/mix/drizzle or something like that...but i don't know. the low levels are looking worse and worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 you probably want the low on the 16th-17th to turn into a 50/50...because it's more ideal just a day or two after. Yeah that's what I have been hoping for since last night, but the second low mioght get squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 GGEM ens looked so good for this week, a lot of potential, hopefully they are not a complete fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 i was more hopeful yesterday afternoon that interior areas might go snow/mix/drizzle or something like that...but i don't know. the low levels are looking worse and worse. The euro wasn't far off from something better for Will, but se winds ahead of it torch 950 on down. If this were to wrap up quick, it would be a Tip blue bomb for higher spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Verbatim, it looks like a few fresh inches up here. BL looks iffy though by sunrise Friday all the way into Canada. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 this winter rocks! ......for .....w. texas now 2hr wait for el euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The euro wasn't far off from something better for Will, but se winds ahead of it torch 950 on down. If this were to wrap up quick, it would be a Tip blue bomb for higher spots. yeah would probably be some snow at the onset (or shortly thereafter) but the SSE flow is pretty bad. it's amazing though in mid-february to see a secondary pass over or south of the BM and have almost the entire southern half of new england too mild for snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yeah that's what I have been hoping for since last night, but the second low mioght get squashed. the 12z is still squashed but it looks pretty close to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 GFS trys to get a low going late for sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 the 12z is still squashed but it looks pretty close to me. Yeah looks a bit better. Low tries to redevlop offshore at hr 144 from the nrn vortmax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 yeah would probably be some snow at the onset (or shortly thereafter) but the SSE flow is pretty bad. it's amazing though in mid-february to see a secondary pass over or south of the BM and have almost the entire southern half of new england too mild for snow... It's absolutely ridiculous, but would you expect no less this year? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yeah looks a bit better. Low tries to redevlop offshore at hr 144 from the nrn vortmax. any other winter people would be somewhat excited the gfs had a low but had it a bit suppressed at this time range lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 It's absolutely ridiculous, but would you expect no less this year? LOL. that sun angle is a killa JK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Snow to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Besides, the best stuff gets in here during the morning. Sun angle will cause all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Snow to rain for Vim Toot? No he'll be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Snow to rain Maybe for the ORH hills and Berks. Probably no one in CT unless we can get the secondary to form farther SE. 0C 850 is near NYC at the onset, so maybe you wetbulb and see a few flakes verbatim. Also, the timing is earlier than originally thought. GFS has the precip beginning between 15z and 18z Thursday now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 This storm looks like every other storm we have had this winter, talk about a persistant pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Besides, the best stuff gets in here during the morning. Sun angle will cause all rain. Control run of the GFS has a 974mb low over the benchmark and surface temps in the teens over New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Control run of the GFS has a 974mb low over the benchmark and surface temps in the teens over New England LOL. THIS IS NOT A JOKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 LOL. THIS IS NOT A JOKE. Dam phil, I forgot that line......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 so to add to our crap winter we can now introduce jerry's BL elephant into the equation going forward. cool beans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Someone google Box of Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 LOL. THIS IS NOT A JOKE. I love how every season brings some weenie term(s) into the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 damn hippies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 GEFS probably sould be a little better than the op with maybe Will on north seeing at least some snow at the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 it's pretty damn amazing that we have such a robust Phase 8 MJO going on and the GEFs mean at CDC's PNA progs has the index anticorrelate down to -4SD by the end of week 2. That's utterly an epic collapse of correlation between the MJO and the North American pattern - it begs how that could be happening. wow. If that kind of PNA takes place and the NAO is even remotely positive we'd see 80 F in the first week of March. incredible. What makes it almost funny is that the mean Global temperature spanning 2011 into 2012 so far is way beneath the 10 year mean. This really is a N/A centric problem of lacking winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 It actually looks a little better for the Sunday deal too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 it's pretty damn amazing that we have such a robust Phase 8 MJO going on and the GEFs mean at CDC's PNA progs has the index anticorrelate down to -4SD by the end of week 2. That's utterly an epic collapse of correlation between the MJO and the North American pattern - it begs how that could be happening. wow. If that kind of PNA takes place and the NAO is even remotely positive we'd see 80 F in the first week of March. incredible. Every winter has some sort of personality. This of course doesn't jibe with scienice but it has been observed for the good and bad winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 it's pretty damn amazing that we have such a robust Phase 8 MJO going on and the GEFs mean at CDC's PNA progs has the index anticorrelate down to -4SD by the end of week 2. That's utterly an epic collapse of correlation between the MJO and the North American pattern - it begs how that could be happening. wow. If that kind of PNA takes place and the NAO is even remotely positive we'd see 80 F in the first week of March. incredible. What makes it almost funny is that the mean Global temperature spanning 2011 into 2012 so far is way beneath the 10 year mean. This really is a N/A centric problem of lacking winter. yep. we got fooked without getting screwed this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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