weathafella Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Noone is saying the Euro is snow..All we are saying Ryan,Phil, Will is that we have a shot at snow inland That was before guidance that shat the bed further wrt temperatures. The trend is not your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Weenie flakes as we speak... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 That was before guidance that shat the bed further wrt temperatures. The trend is not your friend. He's going to need a lot of help if he wants more than a coating. I'm not sure the pattern can support a rapidly deepening low south of SNE and a few inches for his area right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I think this one is pretty simple. If the ridging builds in and we get a little -NAO coming in then we trend colder as we get nearer. Let's see what 12Z guidance says in this regard. If not then it is marginal or bad for most of us. If for some reason it cuts then it helps build in -NAO. But I am encourage that HPC has had Jersey coast redevelopment for several days in a row with the track into the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I think this one is pretty simple. If the ridging builds in and we get a little -NAO coming in then we trend colder as we get nearer. Let's see what 12Z guidance says in this regard. If not then it is marginal or bad for most of us. If for some reason it cuts then it helps build in -NAO. But I am encourage that HPC has had Jersey coast redevelopment for several days in a row with the track into the GOM. It looks ok for NNE higher spots. I'm not saying it will be impossible for the interior of SNE to get some accumulating snow out of this, but the boundary layer is putrid and by the time it gets going and the air starts to cool...it's already pulling off to the east. There needs to be some work done. He hates when I don't talk snow, so I don't expect him to listen much and think I'm being a Debbie...like he did with the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 It looks ok for NNE higher spots. I'm not saying it will be impossible for the interior of SNE to get some accumulating snow out of this, but the boundary layer is putrid and by the time it gets going and the air starts to cool...it's already pulling off to the east. There needs to be some work done. He hates when I don't talk snow, so I don't expect him to listen much and think I'm being a Debbie...like he did with the last storm. Yes....the worrying thing this am was that hpc had primary and secondary both at 1004, although I love the spot....just off the elbow. Perhaps that means there isn't confluence/blocking building in yet to ensure a cold air feed, and more importantly, slow it down and deepen it soon. 12Z today should give a good sense of how this will trend. 4-5 day lag on MJO impact. Where was MJO yesterday/today? does is suggest anything that will help or hurt in this scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yes....the worrying thing this am was that hpc had primary and secondary both at 1004, although I love the spot....just off the elbow. Perhaps that means there isn't confluence/blocking building in yet to ensure a cold air feed, and more importantly, slow it down and deepen it soon. 12Z today should give a good sense of how this will trend. 4-5 day lag on MJO impact. Where was MJO yesterday/today? does is suggest anything that will help or hurt in this scenario? It's in a favorable spot, but the MJO is just one of several things that guide storms. Right now, the IO is heating up. If this were to really start developing near NJ and go to town quickly, it would certainly help out, but I just don't know if that's possible. 00z euro was a little better looking for SNE, but not enough quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 It's in a favorable spot, but the MJO is just one of several things that guide storms. Right now, the IO is heating up. If this were to really start developing near NJ and go to town quickly, it would certainly help out, but I just don't know if that's possible. 00z euro was a little better looking for SNE, but not enough quite yet. Yes....it's just that in New England the trend is so critical...so much more than when I lived in Philly. Little things have a big impact up here so if we can get just a couple of subtle pushes it gets better. I didn't see much on the Euro...I'm assuming that it puts me and Brian on the edge a bit, but probably a high advisory wet snow? Thanks for your input on the set up...would you come up to Center Harbor if it trended well? Hopefully it bombs up toward the -NAO position...it didn't seem it would go out ene...if it goes north northeast then perhaps there is room or sun-mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yes....it's just that in New England the trend is so critical...so much more than when I lived in Philly. Little things have a big impact up here so if we can get just a couple of subtle pushes it gets better. I didn't see much on the Euro...I'm assuming that it puts me and Brian on the edge a bit, but probably a high advisory wet snow? Thanks for your input on the set up...would you come up to Center Harbor if it trended well? Hopefully it bombs up toward the -NAO position...it didn't seem it would go out ene...if it goes north northeast then perhaps there is room or sun-mon. I'm working right through the weekend. I'd come up if I had the time off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I'm working right through the weekend. I'd come up if I had the time off. do you come up during the week? perhaps we get our parade of storms next week lol. I would def. meet you for a beer and I'm Brian would if he can...as well as Jeff and Eric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Multi day mini torch in advance too, let's hope we see some cooling prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 do you come up during the week? perhaps we get our parade of storms next week lol. I would def. meet you for a beer and I'm Brian would if he can...as well as Jeff and Eric. Need to have a get together up this way somewhere.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 do you come up during the week? perhaps we get our parade of storms next week lol. I would def. meet you for a beer and I'm Brian would if he can...as well as Jeff and Eric. Yeah when it gets warmer, maybe we can all meet up at a bar or something. I probably would only come up if I had the day off and it combined with a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 wow you could hear a pindrop in here. mass weenie suicide? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 wow you could hear a pindrop in here. mass weenie suicide? Atomic failure. 4 months of optimism failing and I think everyone is realizing we're witnessing a winter that we will use as a benchmark for future failures. This is the 1/25/00 of failures and fulitity. For the next decade every time we make it to Xmas without snow someone will conjure up the "it's just like 2011-12" comparisons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Atomic failure. 4 months of optimism failing and I think everyone is realizing we're witnessing a winter that we will use as a benchmark for future failures. This is the 1/25/00 of failures and fulitity. For the next decade every time we make it to Xmas without snow someone will conjure up the "it's just like 2011-12" comparisons. Yeah. I know I'm much younger than the average age on here, but this is the worst winter I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 wow you could hear a pindrop in here. mass weenie suicide? Nah, the far interior can still keep an eye out..even areas a little further south and east if the storm can get cranking. It's just kind of meh looking for a large part of SNE right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Nah, the far interior can still keep an eye out..even areas a little further south and east if the storm can get cranking. It's just kind of meh looking for a large part of SNE right now. The NAM looked better at 12z.. it really drops that 850 line south at the end of the run, but the concern is probably about surface temps? I like that finger of confluence it has in the Northern Atlantic and into Maine. The vortmax trended S this run FWIW. We just have to hope for that.. maybe one storm will trend positive for once? That's a tight/ strong vortmax though.. if we can get that underneath SNE , that thing will explode.. This is kind of my last 2 weeks of winter cause I'm gone March 1-5 and March 12-16.. I'm probably gasping at straws, but I've changed my tone about not wanting snow and wanting spring.. I just want to see heavy snow one last time before spring.. Sigh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Notice the trend for phasing to occur with an earlier northern s/w disturbance now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Notice the trend for phasing to occur with an earlier northern s/w disturbance now. This is perhaps what I was hoping....that the large scale teleconnections are emerging in our favor later this week and the models are starting to see it...some high pressure retrograding into a more position, some confluence..MJO into Phase 8 with a lag effect later this week...all of these little things. I know we have had periods of teleconnector convergence that haven't panned out, but this one just might. I've been feeling it for a few days and kind of expecting it to tell you the truth. But who knows....lets see how GFS trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The NAM looked better at 12z.. it really drops that 850 line south at the end of the run, but the concern is probably about surface temps? I like that finger of confluence it has in the Northern Atlantic and into Maine. The vortmax trended S this run FWIW. We just have to hope for that.. maybe one storm will trend positive for once? That's a tight/ strong vortmax though.. if we can get that underneath SNE , that thing will explode.. This is kind of my last 2 weeks of winter cause I'm gone March 1-5 and March 12-16.. I'm probably gasping at straws, but I've changed my tone about not wanting snow and wanting spring.. I just want to see heavy snow one last time before spring.. Sigh... The NAM had a healthy primary tracking through the upper lakes. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 boy there are a lot of cooks in the kitchen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 If the dam low could just redevelop sooner and not have the primary so strong, it would be a cool event for at least the interior. The primary fooks everything up. The GFS does try to develop it south of LI, but even if you assume the GFS as a couple of ticks too warm..still too little too late for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 this event looks more blah with each 12 hr set of model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 GFS would probably start ORH out as some snow at the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 If the dam low could just redevelop sooner and not have the primary so strong, it would be a cool event for at least the interior. The primary fooks everything up. The GFS does try to develop it south of LI, but even if you assume the GFS as a couple of ticks too warm..still too little too late for many. Yeah its no good, It develops it way to late, Euro looked to develop it sooner so we will wait to see how that looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 this event looks more blah with each 12 hr set of model runs. It's a furnaced boundary layer. Even the normally colder euro was furnaced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 If the dam low could just redevelop sooner and not have the primary so strong, it would be a cool event for at least the interior. The primary fooks everything up. The GFS does try to develop it south of LI, but even if you assume the GFS as a couple of ticks too warm..still too little too late for many. you probably want the low on the 16th-17th to turn into a 50/50...because it's more ideal just a day or two after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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