CTWeatherFreak Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Calling the JMA solution a "severe noreaster" is a way over-statement. It's a pedestrian coastal winter storm. QPF totals there are under 1.5 inches with mixing issues early... so figure 1.2" worth in snow is 10-14" . It would be stellar for this season. but not severe by any stretch. Calling this a 'Severe Noreaster' is like when Mitt Romney called himself a 'Severe Conservative' this past week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Calling the JMA solution a "severe noreaster" is a way over-statement. It's a pedestrian coastal winter storm. QPF totals there are under 1.5 inches with mixing issues early... so figure 1.2" worth in snow is 10-14" . It would be stellar for this season. but not severe by any stretch. What day is that for? Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I think the main thing I take from the various models is that the system wants to occlude and we are talking a good chance of a front end of wet snow, etc....so maybe a 2-4 deal even in places like KGAY. But it would be a lot tougher for it to transfer to the coast fast enough to do a GGEM. More likely it just tapers to drizzle, temps semi-torch and melts much of the sloppy few inches, then some snow showers as the new low gets going, but too late for SNE or ENY. Now make sure you get that accurate measurement before it starts to melt off. You folks can keep the 4" of slush...all set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 I hope to god that doesn't happen, Rick.....I'd rather 100% rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 LOL I posted this about the Thursday system before I realized you were all onto the "next" phantom threat. I think the main thing I take from the various models is that the system wants to occlude and we are talking a good chance of a front end of wet snow, etc....so maybe a 2-4 deal even in places like KGAY. But it would be a lot tougher for it to transfer to the coast fast enough to do a GGEM. More likely it just tapers to drizzle, temps semi-torch and melts much of the sloppy few inches, then some snow showers as the new low gets going, but too late for SNE or ENY. Now make sure you get that accurate measurement before it starts to melt off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 What day is that for? Friday? Yeah Friday-next weekend. Compared to the other models, the JMA is really pumping this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 We'll be in one of the world's most boring places anyway ...Ocala, FL. I'd love to drive north into the JMA storm early next week though. Oh that must be the one the regular Euro run takes off Charleston, SC. I hope to god that doesn't happen, Rick.....I'd rather 100% rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 18z gfs=torch Hence why no one mentioned it I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 18z gfs=torch Hence why no one mentioned it I guess. no brainer.....toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Maybe because that big cutter is at a day 12. LOL 18z gfs=torch Hence why no one mentioned it I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 18z gfs=torch Hence why no one mentioned it I guess. Not too torchy (yet) CNE/NNE stay colder But I would not hang my hat on that pig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 We need a few more runs to sort things out at the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Seems like NNE if anything has the best shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Seems like NNE if anything has the best shot. For now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 For now Yeah, for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The way this winter has gone no area is safe even inside the last 24 hrs as we just witnessed although this is a diiferent system altogether Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The Friday/Saturday system was a beauty, two streams phased etc.... only problem being the whole trough (position of PV, etc.) was about 200 miles too far east to begin with and I think that doomed it from the start for most of NE and certainly my area. I guess there are rare winters when you just always have bad luck. The way this winter has gone no area is safe even inside the last 24 hrs as we just witnessed although this is a diiferent system altogether Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yea I checked I was wrong, it was 39 at my house. One of my favorite storms. I am looking to see which storm I remember it being crazy warm the day before. FYI Jerry was talking about Friday Brian January 1987 (the first of the 3 KU's that year)....i think it was very warm the day before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The Friday/Saturday system was a beauty, two streams phased etc.... only problem being the whole trough (position of PV, etc.) was about 200 miles too far east to begin with and I think that doomed it from the start for most of NE and certainly my area. I guess there are rare winters when you just always have bad luck. Yeah Rick, The 2nd vort in that southern stream was just to much to overcome and tugged everything ENE, If there is a winter where we have had bad luck its this one, All we need to have for this next one is to come out of the SW on roids and track thru buffalo to continue the bad luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 What day is that for? Friday? Friday into Saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I don't give a rat's weenie about the Sierra Nevada....this is the ne forum and a ne thread. Take that, sit on it and spin. As for the relevant area, I am among the worst and on pace to set a record low mark. Well... the purpose for bringing that up was to offer some perspective that might ease the frustration - if you can't think outside the box at all, ...good luck in life! Most sane people would agree that understanding is the path to acceptance - where realm that does not include frustration If one understands this is all part of a bigger issue worth of study and fascination for its own rite, but then still can't accept it ...that person's got real big problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I almost feel like we should just get rid of the Friday Night deal, and make room for the deeper trough over the south central US. That trough down that way is going to try and bounce that system out, anyways. Maybe it won't matter, but something I noticed. This is more for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I almost feel like we should just get rid of the Friday Night deal, and make room for the deeper trough over the south central US. That trough down that way is going to try and bounce that system out, anyways. Maybe it won't matter, but something I noticed. This is more for Sunday. I was thinking the same thing on my run a while ago, but then it occurred...usually the lead system ends up dominant. So now I'm wondering if this thing doesn't get interesting... Heh, guess we need tonight's runs to pull head out of arse and start givin' up the goods. One thing I find interesting is that Euros D5-6 system is actually born of the southern stream almost entirely ...well, stream that is more south that the GFS'. The ECM's has an origin in the SW, where the GFS' is entirely the northern stream cutting a potent wave through the Lakes and off the upper MA coast. How about this wild idea... a compromise? That would be a tasty tasty solution, the compromise, because both streams would give a little and we could very well "wind" up with a two stream phaser. Eh ...hell, who cares anymore - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Would be nice to see a spike in ridging out west as the weekend s/w dives south upstream of the Friday trough. Would be able to dig further south, phase faster / more completely with the southern energy and also widen the spacing from the Friday trough. Could be something big if some of those ingredients come together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I was thinking the same thing on my run a while ago, but then it occurred...usually the lead system ends up dominant. So now I'm wondering if this thing doesn't get interesting... Heh, guess we need tonight's runs to pull head out of arse and start givin' up the goods. One thing I find interesting is that Euros D5-6 system is actually born of the southern stream almost entirely ...well, stream that is more south that the GFS'. The ECM's has an origin in the SW, where the GFS' is entirely the northern stream cutting a potent wave through the Lakes and off the upper MA coast. How about this wild idea... a compromise? That would be a tasty tasty solution, the compromise, because both streams would give a little and we could very well "wind" up with a two stream phaser. Eh ...hell, who cares anymore - The Friday deal has a SWFE look with a garbage airmass, which imo usually aren't the greatest for SNE in general. I think you really want to have somewhat of a cold antecedent airmass out ahead of any SWFE. You have 850 temps not even at -4C preceding this if the euro ensembles are right. Blah. Maybe for far interior areas near 1k it's good, but imo the euro ensembles aren't the best looking for a good chunk of SNE. If this could tuck under SNE and intensify rapidly, then it's different. However we have several days to see how it goes. I just feel like the weekend storm could have a little more potential, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I was thinking the same thing on my run a while ago, but then it occurred...usually the lead system ends up dominant. So now I'm wondering if this thing doesn't get interesting... Heh, guess we need tonight's runs to pull head out of arse and start givin' up the goods. One thing I find interesting is that Euros D5-6 system is actually born of the southern stream almost entirely ...well, stream that is more south that the GFS'. The ECM's has an origin in the SW, where the GFS' is entirely the northern stream cutting a potent wave through the Lakes and off the upper MA coast. How about this wild idea... a compromise? That would be a tasty tasty solution, the compromise, because both streams would give a little and we could very well "wind" up with a two stream phaser. Eh ...hell, who cares anymore - I disagree. I thought we usually see the second system becoming dominant in the case of two closely spaced consecutive disturbances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The Friday deal has a SWFE look with a garbage airmass, which imo usually aren't the greatest for SNE in general. I think you really want to have somewhat of a cold antecedent airmass out ahead of any SWFE. You have 850 temps not even at -4C preceding this if the euro ensembles are right. Blah. Maybe for far interior areas near 1k it's good, but imo the euro ensembles aren't the best looking for a good chunk of SNE. If this could tuck under SNE and intensify rapidly, then it's different. However we have several days to see how it goes. I just feel like the weekend storm could have a little more potential, but we'll see. Agreed. We see a couple weak s/w's track through the region this week, with leading WAA and little in the way of CAA on the backside. The cold airmass quickly decays, with no reinforcements. The Friday system breaks this pattern, with a significant trough in it's wake and decent CAA. It's really a nice looking 50/50 low that develops. The problem is giving the Sunday s/w enough room to amplify. It's a nearly classic scenario if the northern s/w can dig south and fully phase with the southern energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Agreed. We see a couple weak s/w's track through the region this week, with leading WAA and little in the way of CAA on the backside. The cold airmass quickly decays, with no reinforcements. The Friday system breaks this pattern, with a significant trough in it's wake and decent CAA. It's really a nice looking 50/50 low that develops. The problem is giving the Sunday s/w enough room to amplify. It's a nearly classic scenario if the northern s/w can dig south and fully phase with the southern energy. Some of the GEFS have some sort of a low, but like you hinted at..it gets squashed right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The Friday deal has a SWFE look with a garbage airmass, which imo usually aren't the greatest for SNE in general. I think you really want to have somewhat of a cold antecedent airmass out ahead of any SWFE. You have 850 temps not even at -4C preceding this if the euro ensembles are right. Blah. Maybe for far interior areas near 1k it's good, but imo the euro ensembles aren't the best looking for a good chunk of SNE. If this could tuck under SNE and intensify rapidly, then it's different. However we have several days to see how it goes. I just feel like the weekend storm could have a little more potential, but we'll see. Yeah no I don't believe that will succeed in going west of us. We'll see. The east based -NAO is retrograding ...yes, albeit while weakening, toward the Greenland. I suppose there is a race there as to whether it will have enough left to suppress the storm track down the EC. There is also possibility that the MJO related stuff I was talking about this morning may rear it's influence in the circulation at some point, too. Also - I am less worried/concerned for antecedent air masses in the 2nd halves of winters, when the starting 850mb line is south of you and any dynamics then are involved at all. I have seen 57 in at 11am in April go to S+ by 6pm that night before. Buuut, if the NAO doesn't back then hell - sure. As a side, as I was trying to convey, the ECM southern streamer and the GFS northern streamer coincidentally falling on the same day could signal that they are respectively missing the opposing stream - if that correct it could mean phasing. At D6 that stochastic is still available to play out here. or not. Probabilities are not 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Or maybe they're just pretty pissed off not to be able to enjoy any winter recreation at all outside of downhill skiing on man made snow ,,,for those us that don't do that. And for those of us that don't have free places to stay in Alaska. Well... the purpose for bringing that up was to offer some perspective that might ease the frustration - if you can't think outside the box at all, ...good luck in life! Most sane people would agree that understanding is the path to acceptance - where realm that does not include frustration If one understands this is all part of a bigger issue worth of study and fascination for its own rite, but then still can't accept it ...that person's got real big problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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