bluewave Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I found three analogs since the late 90's that match up with the warmth we experienced this January. January 2006, 2002, and 1998 also ranked in the top ten warmest Januaries along with 2012. While this is a small sample size, I thought that it could provide a general outline of what to expect from the temperatures this spring and summer. The first test of the analog composite is the temperature pattern across the US this February. The composite is doing fairly well so far with the warmth that we have experienced to date. The cooler temperatures expected over the South and West during the next week seems to fit well with the temperature composite. I put together two general temperature composites for the spring and summer. Seasonal analog outlooks are very experimental so it will be interesting to see if they have any skill at determining the spring and summer US temperature pattern. Spring Summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I found three analogs since the late 90's that match up with the warmth we experienced this January. January 2006, 2002, and 1998 also ranked in the top ten warmest Januaries along with 2012. While this is a small sample size, I thought that it could provide a general outline of what to expect from the temperatures this spring and summer. The first test of the analog composite is the temperature pattern across the US this February. The composite is doing fairly well so far with the warmth that we have experienced to date. The cooler temperatures expected over the South and West during the next week seems to fit well with the temperature composite. I put together two general temperature composites for the spring and summer. Seasonal analog outlooks are very experimental so it will be interesting to see if they have any skill at determining the spring and summer US temperature pattern. Spring Summer If you make a forecast of 1 or 2 above normal (which seems to be the new normal) it's safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCwx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Nicely done analysis. It will be interesting to see how this works out. The above normal summer for virtually the entire CONUS is pretty remarkable. I wonder how often that actually happens overall. I would have preferred a colder winter, but I like it warm in the spring and summer too so I hope the analog works out as you have shown it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 If you make a forecast of 1 or 2 above normal (which seems to be the new normal) it's safe. The consistently above normal temperatures have been very common and the NYC Metro area is just one of many locations that have experienced this. Nicely done analysis. It will be interesting to see how this works out. The above normal summer for virtually the entire CONUS is pretty remarkable. I wonder how often that actually happens overall. I would have preferred a colder winter, but I like it warm in the spring and summer too so I hope the analog works out as you have shown it. Thanks. With the exception of parts of the west, it was warm everywhere the last two summers. The composite is a blended average so some locations each summer were not above normal. It's just an overall very warm signal for the US on the whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I love warm springs and summers. But I am sure I'm not the only one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I don't think a warm January means anything about the spring or summer. However, I could see the central portions of the US being the warmest relative to normal this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The consistently above normal temperatures have been very common and the NYC Metro area is just one of many locations that have experienced this. Thanks. With the exception of parts of the west, it was warm everywhere the last two summers. The composite is a blended average so some locations each summer were not above normal. It's just an overall very warm signal for the US on the whole. Have you done analogs based on freakishly cold European winters, by chance, and what that means for the US? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 here's a map for the spring/summer following the warmest January's on record for NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 Have you done analogs based on freakishly cold European winters, by chance, and what that means for the US? Yes. The orientation of the blocking during January 2006 allowed a brutally cold airmass to move over Russia though it was centered further west than this year. You will notice that the US was warm during the same time like this January. here's a map for the spring/summer following the warmest January's on record for NYC... Thanks Uncle. I wanted to look at the US as a whole when the warmth was spread out across the country just not in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 I don't think a warm January means anything about the spring or summer. However, I could see the central portions of the US being the warmest relative to normal this summer. I disagree on that. When you take the top ten warmest Januaries since 1895, the warm signal is still there. I focused more on the recent analogs to be more current with the overall pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I disagree on that. When you take the top ten warmest Januaries since 1895, the warm signal is still there. I focused more on the recent analogs to be more current with the overall pattern. No denying the association here with 80% of these years pretty warm across the Central US / Midwest. Run a statistical test I guess and see how this goes. Do you suppose the driver is a general longer-term +AO state occurring over a certain period perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 No denying the association here with 80% of these years pretty warm across the Central US / Midwest. Run a statistical test I guess and see how this goes. Do you suppose the driver is a general longer-term +AO state occurring over a certain period perhaps? It also seems like a carryover from season to season. If you expand the list to the warmest US summers since 2000, excessive Canadian and or US January warmth preceded them.Conversely, the cooler Januaries were present before the cooler summers since 2000. I guess it's the way the teleconnection patterns combine to produce the anomalously mild pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TNE Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I looked at your analogs and then some. The best analog in terms of the intensity/synoptics to the January 2012 warm-spells is 2006. It needs some tuning but I basically took one warm-period sample from January-February 2006 and compared it to a warm period in January-February 2012. It would be nice to have two more analogs with similar features but I only have one (2006). By the way, 2002 and 1998 were both too extreme and are not similar to 2012. With the limited data I used, I would theorize that spring 2012 will have similar temperature profiles as spring 2006. The warm spell that featured Low-Mid-60s in January-February might grow to Mid-70s in March and then to Mid-80s in April. Seems like a reasonable trend and a good assumption for the spring considering how we have developed so far this winter. Similar positioning of 500MB features, +/- anomalies are not as clear but better than 2002/1998, recorded surface temperatures during a warm spell in 2006 were similar in intensity to our year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I found three analogs since the late 90's that match up with the warmth we experienced this January. January 2006, 2002, and 1998 also ranked in the top ten warmest Januaries along with 2012. While this is a small sample size, I thought that it could provide a general outline of what to expect from the temperatures this spring and summer. I don't remember JJA 1998 or 2006 being particularly warm. 2002 was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 I don't remember JJA 1998 or 2006 being particularly warm. 2002 was. These are the rankings on the list of warmest US Januaries since 1895: 2006.. #1 2012.. #4 1998..#6 2002..#9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Nice thread. I threw together some stats for Chicago (ORD), Indianapolis (IND), Detroit (DTW), and Minneapolis (MSP) with respect to the idea of looking at all of the Januaries since 2000...and the following Springs and Summers. Seems the idea that a warm January equals a warm Summer works out most of the time for the above four locations (though certainly not last year, or even in 2010 )...and vice versa. As for the January/Spring correlation, it's a little more murky than the January/Summer one. All in all, small sample size and could be random chance for all I know. For clarifying whether a month or season was above or below normal, I used the 1971-00 normals for 2000 through 2010, and the 1981-10 normals for 2011. I also didn't clarify "around normal" either...so if it was 0.1 above the normal, it went into the chart as a red highlighted box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 These are the rankings on the list of warmest US Januaries since 1895: 2006.. #1 2012.. #4 1998..#6 2002..#9 I was referring to the warmth of the ensuing summers, not the warmth of the Januaries in question. 1998 and 2006 were not scorchers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 I was referring to the warmth of the ensuing summers, not the warmth of the Januaries in question. 1998 and 2006 were not scorchers. 2006 and 2002 were near the top for the warmest and 1998 was still above average coming in at 14 nationally out of 117. 2006...#3 2002...#5 1998...#14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 I extended the list to the ten warmest and coolest US summers since 1960. The same warm US and or Canada January to summer signal also showed up. 10 warmest US summers since 1960 10 coolest US summers since 1960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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