Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Good write up by Upton this AM for the weekend event. Only thing I don't agree with is the snow back to rain thing they mention for the coast, if this event is far enough north or west to produce precipitation for the majority of the area I don't see it ever going back over to rain. Agreed; as I mentioned the 2m dewpoint falls @ OKX to 16.6 F @ hour 84 on the latest NAM....the anticyclone is neither stale nor Pacific nor marginal...it may be *too* good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Good write up by Upton this AM for the weekend event. Only thing I don't agree with is the snow back to rain thing they mention for the coast, if this event is far enough north or west to produce precipitation for the majority of the area I don't see it ever going back over to rain. NOTICE HOW THEY ARE CONTRADICTING THEMSELVES SAYING THAT THE NORTHERLY FLOW CHANGES IT TO ALL SNOW AND IN THE SECOND BOLD AREA I HIGHLIGHTED THEY ARE SAYING IT WILL BEMAINLY RAIN OR A MIX??? HERE IS THE WRITE UP THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN NOT PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS SATURDAY NIGHT...SO IT WAS NOT USED IN COMING UP WITH THE FORECAST. THE CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER IN ITS TIMING OF SYSTEMS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SO ALSO DID NOT USE THAT MODEL AS WELL. THE GFS IS THE NORTHERN MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WITH ITS TRACK WITH THE POTENTIALLY POTENT LOW THAT EXITS FROM THE SE STATES SATURDAY NIGHT...AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT DID HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND WAS NOT TOO FAR N FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE GFS WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF/SREF SO DID SLOW DOWN THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS...GIVEN THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE BIAS OF THE GFS. THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED ITS TRACK TO THE N COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND NOW HAS MEASURABLE QPF INTO SOUTHERN CT WITH THIS STORM. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE KEEPING POPS ACROSS ZONES N OF LONG ISLAND SOUND AT AROUND 30 PERCENT. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS W ORANGE COUNTY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE N SATURDAY EVENING...SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY. BASED ON THE BLEND ABOVE...AM PREDICTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT....LIKELY BEGINNING AS A MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE KEY HERE...IS THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN HAVING A NORTHERN EXTENSION OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILD TO OUR N INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR NORTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ENOUGH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY TO CHANGE PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN ZONES TO ALL RAIN...AND YIELD A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES. PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY ENOUGH COLD AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE LOW TO CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING. FOR NOW...GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL EITHER BE ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AM NOT ANTICIPATING A WARNING LEVEL EVENT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK/TIMING AND HOW THE EXTENSION OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH EVOLVES...THAT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. THE PROBABILITY OF A WARNING LEVEL EVENT IS LOW ENOUGH THAT IT DOES NOT WARRANT MENTIONING IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NOTICE HOW THEY ARE CONTRADICTING THEMSELVES SAYING THAT THE NORTHERLY FLOW CHANGES IT TO ALL SNOW AND IN THE SECOND BOLD AREA I HIGHLIGHTED THEY ARE SAYING IT WILL BEMAINLY RAIN OR A MIX??? It was written @ 4:18 AM...the caffeine had not yet taken effect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Upton for Brooklyn Saturday Night: A slight chance of rain and snow before 2am, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%.Sunday: A chance of snow before 8am, then a chance of rain and snow between 8am and 9am, then a chance of rain after 9am. Cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Sunday Night: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Upton for Brooklyn now thats a computer generated forecast -and ridiculous - even more so then henrys and jbs maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Upton for Brooklyn I would only read the text products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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