Sundog Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 All discussion about what Upton and Mt. Holly is forecasting should go in here. You can discuss how their forecasts are either against or with whatever the latest run of whatever model you're hugging is showing at the moment. Feel free to post about their point and click forecasts, their experimental snow output or the temp forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I don't agree with all of these sub forums - anyways I would change the title to Upton and Mount Holly since part of the area is covered by Mount Holly Upton discussion this morning looks good SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/ COMPLEX INTERACTION OF NRN/SRN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM SHAPING UP TO PRODUCE WINTRY WX FOR THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. CURRENT FCST SIDES TOWARD COLDER GFS/ECMWF SCENARIO...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM NEAR CAPE HATTERAS EARLY SAT MORNING TO NEAR 38-39N/70W BY 18Z SAT. EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PD OF ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN NYC METRO AND COASTAL SECTIONS AT THE ONSET...PRECIP SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW AS BL TEMPS COOL FROM MELTING PRECIP ALOFT AND DEVELOPING LIGHT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. NAM DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE DELMARVA REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Who cares what they are forecasting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Mt Holly is an excellent forecasting office. Great discos and explanations usually. They are not very bullish with this storm at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Mt. Holly might be too low with their forecast. Not a single model that I see is that warm with the 2m temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Mt Holly is an excellent forecasting office. Great discos and explanations usually. They are not very bullish with this storm at all. maybe b/c there is no cold air whatsoever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 for Edison (08820) Tonight: Rain, mainly after 1am. Low around 33. West wind around 6 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Saturday: Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 11am. High near 38. North wind between 8 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Saturday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Northwest wind between 15 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 and for New Providence, approximatley 13 miles north Tonight: Snow, mainly after 10pm. Low around 30. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Saturday: Snow, mainly before 1pm. High near 37. Light wind becoming north between 12 and 15 mph. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Saturday Night: A slight chance of snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 17. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 And check out Eastern Somerset vs. Western Union county, just a couple miles apart. They think its going to rain most of the night and make it sound like it is mostly a mix even in the higher elevations. Meanwhile upton barely mentions rain. Honestly I don't think it will be much rain in the morning hours. Maybe it will be too wet/warm to accumulate but should still be plenty cold aloft to fall as snow and for New Providence, approximatley 13 miles north Tonight: Snow, mainly after 10pm. Low around 30. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Saturday: Snow, mainly before 1pm. High near 37. Light wind becoming north between 12 and 15 mph. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Saturday Night: A slight chance of snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 17. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 the way they have the zones set up for each office now should be changed - Mount Holly should just cover the jersey shore counties and the rest of southern NJ and points south and west into south eastern pa and northern DE. - Upton should cover somerset, middlesex , hunterton warren, sussex in nj and the 2 northern counties mt holly is covering now should be covered by the office that covers scranton. I have the same forecasting problems here in northern middlesex county - I refer to the eastern union county forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 And I usually do the opposite. I find my forecast for western Union county ends up closer to Middlesex and Mt. Holly's forecast as Upton tends to overestimate sometimes in these borderline situations. the way they have the zones set up for each office now should be changed - Mount Holly should just cover the jersey shore counties and the rest of southern NJ and points south and west into south eastern pa and northern DE. - Upton should cover somerset, middlesex , hunterton warren, sussex in nj and the 2 northern counties mt holly is covering now should be covered by the office that covers scranton. I have the same forecasting problems here in northern middlesex county - I refer to the eastern union county forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 And I usually do the opposite. I find my forecast for western Union county ends up closer to Middlesex and Mt. Holly's forecast as Upton tends to overestimate sometimes in these borderline situations. I just go by whichever WFO forecasts more snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 looks like mount holly is only going for WWA for south jersey not enough precip up north ? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 looks like mount holly is only going for WWA for south jersey not enough precip up north ? http://kamala.cod.ed...wus41.KPHI.html I checked Barnegat NJ on the NWS site, which is in Ocean County, one of the Counties under the current WWA, and Barnegat is all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I checked Barnegat NJ on the NWS site, which is in Ocean County, one of the Counties under the current WWA, and Barnegat is all rain. should be interesting what their reasoning is behind all of this unless they plan on releasing a separate advisory for the other counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 should be interesting what their reasoning is behind all of this unless they plan on releasing a separate advisory for the other counties Hopefully they do release a separate WWA for C NJ. I remember that in the past, they issued a WWA for me when I was progged to get 1-2" of snow. That seems likely for at least that amount tomorrow, if not more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 heres what the advisory looks like on the map the southern most NJ counties too warm and north of ocean not enough precip http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Winter weather advisory for eastern Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 they have 1 -3 forecast for somerset county in NJ but 1-3 there is not enough for a WWA but in south jersey it is - why ? who knows - i guess people can drive and walk better in it up there which doesn't make any sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 they have 1 -3 forecast for somerset county in NJ but 1-3 there is not enough for a WWA but in south jersey it is - why ? who knows - i guess people can drive and walk better in it up there which doesn't make any sense I think this was done several years ago...WWA criteria I believe is tailored differently to different regions. Having lived in north central, central, and right now South Jersey I can say that they seem to throw less resources at the roads down here so yeah, 1-2 inches here sometimes has similar impact to 2-4 inches farther north....farther north 1-2 inches doesn't cause much more stir than 1/2" snow squalls causes down here. Between the bl temp issues and the constant waffling model qpf, its pretty much garaunteed that advisories will have to be tweeked on the fly even as this gets underway, and yeah, theres a bit of bust room in either direction. I worked in New Brunswick today, home now in S Jersey...people in both regions are generally aware of whats coming and the scope of whats currently forecast...except for the usual people who wall themselves off from all awareness of weather/news. Jon in Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 It's also technically the first snowfall of the season for south Jersey. They were too warm for the October storm and many places barely saw an inch or so from the January event. That might play a part as well. Either way I'm not sure why on a Saturday morning with slushy roads that the difference between 2 and 3" becomes significant. Again I've always argued that an advisory is probably more warranted when an inch of snow comes in during morning rush hour with cold temps that immediately makes the roads hazardous than a situation like tomorrow, whether it ends up being 1, 2 or 4". I think this was done several years ago...WWA criteria I believe is tailored differently to different regions. Having lived in north central, central, and right now South Jersey I can say that they seem to throw less resources at the roads down here so yeah, 1-2 inches here sometimes has similar impact to 2-4 inches farther north....farther north 1-2 inches doesn't cause much more stir than 1/2" snow squalls causes down here. Between the bl temp issues and the constant waffling model qpf, its pretty much garaunteed that advisories will have to be tweeked on the fly even as this gets underway, and yeah, theres a bit of bust room in either direction. I worked in New Brunswick today, home now in S Jersey...people in both regions are generally aware of whats coming and the scope of whats currently forecast...except for the usual people who wall themselves off from all awareness of weather/news. Jon in Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 1-3 but thats more on grassy surfaces, if its going to have trouble sticking to the pavement because of the low intensity rate then do we need an adivsory just because of a coating or so on paved surfaces? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 44/29 at bdr ouch, not a good wet bulb lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 looks like this one is going to look like a couple days ago - I would put bets on WWA being put into effect for saturday night because of flash freeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think this was done several years ago...WWA criteria I believe is tailored differently to different regions. Having lived in north central, central, and right now South Jersey I can say that they seem to throw less resources at the roads down here so yeah, 1-2 inches here sometimes has similar impact to 2-4 inches farther north....farther north 1-2 inches doesn't cause much more stir than 1/2" snow squalls causes down here. Between the bl temp issues and the constant waffling model qpf, its pretty much garaunteed that advisories will have to be tweeked on the fly even as this gets underway, and yeah, theres a bit of bust room in either direction. I worked in New Brunswick today, home now in S Jersey...people in both regions are generally aware of whats coming and the scope of whats currently forecast...except for the usual people who wall themselves off from all awareness of weather/news. Jon in Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think this was done several years ago...WWA criteria I believe is tailored differently to different regions. Having lived in north central, central, and right now South Jersey I can say that they seem to throw less resources at the roads down here so yeah, 1-2 inches here sometimes has similar impact to 2-4 inches farther north....farther north 1-2 inches doesn't cause much more stir than 1/2" snow squalls causes down here. Between the bl temp issues and the constant waffling model qpf, its pretty much garaunteed that advisories will have to be tweeked on the fly even as this gets underway, and yeah, theres a bit of bust room in either direction. I worked in New Brunswick today, home now in S Jersey...people in both regions are generally aware of whats coming and the scope of whats currently forecast...except for the usual people who wall themselves off from all awareness of weather/news. Jon in Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think this was done several years ago...WWA criteria I believe is tailored differently to different regions. Having lived in north central, central, and right now South Jersey I can say that they seem to throw less resources at the roads down here so yeah, 1-2 inches here sometimes has similar impact to 2-4 inches farther north....farther north 1-2 inches doesn't cause much more stir than 1/2" snow squalls causes down here. Between the bl temp issues and the constant waffling model qpf, its pretty much garaunteed that advisories will have to be tweeked on the fly even as this gets underway, and yeah, theres a bit of bust room in either direction. I worked in New Brunswick today, home now in S Jersey...people in both regions are generally aware of whats coming and the scope of whats currently forecast...except for the usual people who wall themselves off from all awareness of weather/news. Jon in Jersey Here's the Philly office WWAdvisory map - as people have said, the WWAdvisories don't mean South Jersey is getting any more snow than "North Jersey" (i.e., Mercer/Monmouth and all points north, where 3" in 12 hours is the criterion for a WWA), it's just a matter of the different criteria. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/WinterMaps/12hrsnwadv.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 looks like this one is going to look like a couple days ago - I would put bets on WWA being put into effect for saturday night because of flash freeze Special weather statements are used for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Here's the Philly office WWAdvisory map - as people have said, the WWAdvisories don't mean South Jersey is getting any more snow than "North Jersey" (i.e., Mercer/Monmouth and all points north, where 3" in 12 hours is the criterion for a WWA), it's just a matter of the different criteria. http://www.erh.noaa..../12hrsnwadv.jpg My father retired to south central Kentucky....they have a WWA for the snow showers tonight, expecting half inch to an inch. I always thought it was that the criteria is tailored to the impact, and their is no uniform accumulation to impact ratio for every region. Lets get back to multiple major storms every winter so we all can forget the WWA criteria for our respective areas and argue blizzard warning verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Good write up by Upton this AM for the weekend event. Only thing I don't agree with is the snow back to rain thing they mention for the coast, if this event is far enough north or west to produce precipitation for the majority of the area I don't see it ever going back over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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