weatherwiz Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 A strong Arctic Cold Front will be moving through the region on Saturday ushering in some MUCH colder air into the region. However, before this cold air works in we will have to do with some snowfall as a developing coastal storm will ride up along the front increasing moisture and lift across the region. Despite being only two days away from the event confidence in exactly how much snowfall occurs across the region is a bit lower than normal. This is due to the fact there is some inconsistencies and model disagreement going on. These two biggest questions at hand right now are; how quickly does this coastal low develop and intensify and how close to the coast does it track? The answers to these questions will ultimately determine how much snow will exactly fall. At this time though, it appears very likely that the highest snowfall totals will occur across eastern MA. Snow will begin breaking out during the early AM hours of Saturday, as early as 4-6 AM and will start off very light. As we move into mid-morning the snowfall intensity and rates will begin to increase. The height of the storm will occur from about mid morning to mid afternoon. This will be a very fast and quick hitting system and snow will begin to wind down during the late afternoon hours. Snowfall rates during the height of the storm should be about 1-1.5'' per hour. Surface temperatures and temperatures in the lowest 10-meters of the atmosphere will be on the warmer side and this will lead to snowfall ratios of around 10:1 or so. It is possible across interior MA that snowfall ratios could increase to around 12:1. The snow isn't going to be fine powder but it won't exactly be very wet or heavy. The snow will be wet enough though to perhaps stick to power lines and tree limbs/branches. Winds will be rather gusty as well across eastern MA where winds could gust as high as 25-35 mph. This along with potential for some snow sticking on power lines could lead to isolated power outages but this should not be much of an issue. One thing to watch for as well are some periods of mixing across the outer Cape which could slightly cut down on snowfall totals here. Something to watch as well is some models are developing a closed off circulation at 925 and 850mb. This will have to be watched very closely as if this does occur we would likely see the development of a very narrow mesoscale band of heavy snow. This would likely setup across parts of eastern MA. If this band were to develop we would see an area of much higher snowfall totals as snowfall rates here could be as high as 2'' per hour and sometimes these bands like to sit and pivot over the same locations for hours on end. This is something we really won't know for sure until probably tomorrow afternoon when hopefully the models have a much better handling of the situation. Once the front/system pass Arctic air will blast into the region and winds will be very gusty both Saturday night and Sunday. The brunt of the cold air works in for Sunday/Monday as daytime highs on Sunday will range from the mid to upper teens across northern and central New England to the lower to mid 20's across southern New England. With winds gusting as high as 30 mph at times this will make wind chill values close to, if not below zero at times. Sunday night will be extremely cold with temperatures in northern New England ranging from -10F to -20F (especially in the typically colder locations) to around 0 across southern New England with some below-zero readings mixed in. It will be continued breezy so wind chill values will be below-zero as well. Here is snowfall thoughts as of now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Not too bad Wiz..I would just shift everything west a bit maybe have 4-6 into NW RI up to ORH..and paint less along SE areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Not too bad Wiz..I would just shift everything west a bit maybe have 4-6 into NW RI up to ORH..and paint less along SE areas This was a bit of a tough decision painting where those highest totals would occur. I wish I could see euro qpf charts with my eye but from what I heard the euro QPF was just about similar to the GFS. The NAM obviously seemed way too wet. Am a bit worried about some mixing potential out on the Cape as the GFS does flip some of those areas between rain/sleet/snow (like towards CHH). I could def see RI though (or parts of it) in the jackpot area as well, especially if some good banding can setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Final update unless there are major changes Now that we are within 24-hours of the onset of the snow computer models have finally come around into better agreement as to what will unfold across the region. While this is not going to be a widespread significant snow producing event we really just missed a more substantial event by not much at all. A strong Arctic Front is currently working through the northern tier of the country and that front is expected to work into New England tomorrow. As the front approaches a trough will be working into the region as well, in fact this trough which is expected to sharpen/deepen will be the focus in pushing the front eastward. If the trough were to sharpen/deepen much faster than what the models are showing we would likely have a more significant snow producing event on our hands as this would allow for the developing surface low to not only remain closer to the coast but deepen and intensify much faster. However, it appears likely that the trough will sharpen/deepen just a tad too late for such a scenario to play out. However, there remains a possibility that this does occur just soon enough to possibly produce some moderate (6''+) snowfall accumulations out across eastern MA and some computer models do hint at this possibility. What's going to happen is as the Arctic Front draws closer and the trough does begin to sharpen/deepen this will bring a plume of moisture northward from the developing surface low out over the Atlantic. As this moisture interacts with the front this will generate snow across the region. The further east you go the stronger the lift and the more moisture there will be, this is why eastern sections of southern New England are expected to receive the highest snowfall totals. This is how tomorrow unfolds... Light snow begins to break out during the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. Snow should remain rather light through the early morning hours but by mid morning the snow will fall more steadily and heavily, especially across eastern Southern New England. At the peak of the storm snowfall rates may be as high as 1-1.5'' per hour (this is especially the case across eastern Southern New England). This storm will be a fast moving and quick hitting system so snow should begin to taper off by mid to late afternoon and be all done with by evening. We will remain cold enough for all snow, however, extreme SE CT, portions of southern RI, and the outer Cape could see periods of mixed precipitation, especially towards the onset of the event. With temperatures in the boundary layer and at the surface on the warmer side (close to 30F if not a few ticks higher in spots) this will keep snowfall ratios down to around 10:1. Snow won't be exactly powder but it won't be extremely heavy either but it will be a tad on the wet side. This could cause some sticking on power lines and tree limbs/branches. Across eastern sections of southern New England winds could gust to 25-35 mph and this combined with any sticking snow could lead to isolated power outages but this should not be a big issue at all. Once the front passes Arctic cold will usher into the region. Expect very cold temperatures Saturday night through Monday night. Nighttime lows will range from below zero across northern and central New England to single digits and lower teens across southern New England. It will be quite windy at times as well, especially Sunday where winds could gust 45-55 mph region wide. This will lead to brutal wind chills below-zero much of the day and night. Unless there are significant changes within the model data tonight this is what I think will play out: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Final update unless there are major changes Shouldn't there be 4"-6" at high Tolland elevations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Shouldn't there be 4"-6" at high Tolland elevations? It lives!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Shouldn't there be 4"-6" at high Tolland elevations? If you were to zoom in on my map over the Tolland area you would see a spec of 4-6'' coloring over Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 From the guy on the boston.com site: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 It lives!!!! Just a ghost with internet access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 From the guy on the boston.com site: Congrats to Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.