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February 11, 2012 system?


Rankin5150

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This system seems to be picking up a little bit of steam as it evolves on the model runs. Looks like it might not be to bad (by this years standards) above 3500'. Curious to see how it does in the valleys though. Like the fact that there is some potential for fetch off the lakes. We will see I guess.

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Isolated to maybe scattered convective type SN-squalls for the northern coastal plain Saturday afternoon as the northern stream vort comes through. Nothing of consequence, just some cool looking nimbus, quick pickup in wind, and a minute or two of moderate SN.

Perfect to gain some steam for the next system! :)

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This is what falls Saturday night into Sunday morning according to the 0z GFS. Have not checked out soundings, but given thickness and 850's approaching -10C, this is likely all SN in NE NC/SE VA... 12z GFS in the second graphic for comparison same period, Saturday night into Sunday morning, i.e. after the cold air arrives.

Know is it not much, but maybe a couple slushy inches in the tidewater area, on a RN soaked ground of course.

post-382-13288481445.jpg

post-382-132884815802.jpg

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Wow, no love for this tread? MRX has WWA for NE TN & the spine. GSP will probably post one today. Not alot of snow but the favored flow areas could be looking at 4"+. Wind & cold are going to be issues also. My forecast high for Sat. is 31° but falling to 25° by 5 pm. Suprised the mnt crew isn't in here.

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Wow, no love for this tread? MRX has WWA for NE TN & the spine. GSP will probably post one today. Not alot of snow but the favored flow areas could be looking at 4"+. Wind & cold are going to be issues also. My forecast high for Sat. is 31° but falling to 25° by 5 pm. Suprised the mnt crew isn't in here.

Your right Don! I do agree this event could be a good one for the favored NW flow poeple. I was just talking about the possibility of maybe the favored areas getting 2-4 inches or even 3-6 inches. I am pretty excited about this event. With an artic high coming in and temps dropping rapidly with plent of moisture to work with things could get white quick.

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Wow, no love for this tread? MRX has WWA for NE TN & the spine. GSP will probably post one today. Not alot of snow but the favored flow areas could be looking at 4"+. Wind & cold are going to be issues also. My forecast high for Sat. is 31° but falling to 25° by 5 pm. Suprised the mnt crew isn't in here.

Representing with ya Don!!! You would think FranklinWx or Rainforrest would chime in with their excitement. Funny how we get excited about a possible dusting for the valleys and 4" + along the TN spin this winter, but hey we'll take what we can get!

Met 1985, I look forward to your post and perhaps a pic or two would be cool as you, SnoJoe and CAD Addict look to be the winners out of this system.

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Representing with ya Don!!! You would think FranklinWx or Rainforrest would chime in with their excitement. Funny how we get excited about a possible dusting for the valleys and 4" + along the TN spin this winter, but hey we'll take what we can get!

Met 1985, I look forward to your post and perhaps a pic or two would be cool as you, SnoJoe and CAD Addict look to be the winners out of this system.

Def looking foward to some obs reports. If we are lucky in Weaverville we might get a couple of inches....I will be happy with white ground though.

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Ya the mountain guys!!! Ya i am going to try to post some pics up if i can figure out how. I think we will be in an advisory by 5 today i think. This should be a fun event. I have to work till nine tonight but after that game on! Ya hope everyone reports in quit often on this event since this is the first real threat that we have hade in sometime.

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Looks like GSP will jump in with the afternoon afd. This is from the morning update:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --

AT 1055 AM...LOOKS LIKE A BUSY COUPLE PERIODS COMING UP IN THE

FORECAST. IN THE VERY NEAR TERM HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR

TODAY AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS SOMEWHAT AS A RESULT. LOTS OF VIRGA ON

RADAR...BUT DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING REACHING

THE GROUND EXCEPT MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES. HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM

EASTERN AREAS FOR TODAY AS ALL MESOSCALE MODELS KEEP MEASURABLE

PRECIP TO THE EAST WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW. ALSO...BUMPED POPS UP

INTO CATEGORICAL LATE TONIGHT AND SAT OVER COUNTIES ADJACENT TO

TN. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT NW FLOW SNOW EVENT SHAPING WITH PASSAGE OF

UPPER TROUGH ON SAT. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST ADVISORY TYPE SNOW AND

PERHAPS EVEN WARNING. WILL SETTLE ON AN APPROPRIATE HEADLINE WITH

AFTERNOON ISSUANCE AFTER I HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO EVALUATE ALL THE

LATEST DATA.

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Looks like GSP will jump in with the afternoon afd. This is from the morning update:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --

AT 1055 AM...LOOKS LIKE A BUSY COUPLE PERIODS COMING UP IN THE

FORECAST. IN THE VERY NEAR TERM HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR

TODAY AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS SOMEWHAT AS A RESULT. LOTS OF VIRGA ON

RADAR...BUT DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING REACHING

THE GROUND EXCEPT MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES. HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM

EASTERN AREAS FOR TODAY AS ALL MESOSCALE MODELS KEEP MEASURABLE

PRECIP TO THE EAST WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW. ALSO...BUMPED POPS UP

INTO CATEGORICAL LATE TONIGHT AND SAT OVER COUNTIES ADJACENT TO

TN. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT NW FLOW SNOW EVENT SHAPING WITH PASSAGE OF

UPPER TROUGH ON SAT. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST ADVISORY TYPE SNOW AND

PERHAPS EVEN WARNING. WILL SETTLE ON AN APPROPRIATE HEADLINE WITH

AFTERNOON ISSUANCE AFTER I HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO EVALUATE ALL THE

LATEST DATA.

Look at that Don even maybe warning level! Just what we had been talking about!

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This event kind of snuck up on me...I've been so busy with school lately that I've neglected to check up on the weather at all. Anyhoo, I have all my supplies (case of beer and camera) ready to go. I'll keep y'all updated. :snowman:

And good to have you in the area, Pathfinder! You're only about 4 miles from my place.

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Nice well hopefully yall will see a couple of inches of snow werever you are.

This event kind of snuck up on me...I've been so busy with school lately that I've neglected to check up on the weather at all. Anyhoo, I have all my supplies (case of beer and camera) ready to go. I'll keep y'all updated. :snowman:

And good to have you in the area, Pathfinder! You're only about 4 miles from my place.

Thanks..looking forward to it. Even though it's not a huge snow it's better than nothing. I suspect the wind and cold will be the biggest stories though.

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MHX calling for snow extreme NE NC

AS THE STRONG
CROSSES ON SATURDAY

NIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED STRONG DPVA AND PV
WILL LEAD TO

SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS

OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND COUNTIES...GIVEN VERY COLD LOW-LEVEL

THICKNESS VALUES. THE
/
AND
ALL SHOW A LIGHT SNOWFALL

ACCUMULATION RANGING FROM JUST A DUSTING TO BETWEEN A HALF AND AN

INCH OVER THE FAR NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. WITH CONFIDENCE BECOMING

FAIRLY HIGH...WILL FORECAST ABOUT 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION

FOR NOW IN THESE AREAS AND WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.
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WWA from GSP:

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

134 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2012

...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...

.ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AND SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER

THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. COLD AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS

ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE

INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

NCZ033-048>052-058-110245-

/O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0004.120211T0500Z-120212T1100Z/

AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...

WAYNESVILLE

134 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO

6 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WHICH IS IN

EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAIN COUNTIES BORDERING

TENNESSEE.

* HAZARDS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL

DUE TO SLIPPERY ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

* TIMING...BEGINNING TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH

SATURDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALIZED

AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES.

* IMPACT...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS

* TEMPERATURES...WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 20S BY MORNING ABOVE 3500

FT AND TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD

STEADY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN FALL INTO TEENS AND 20S BY

EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES.

* WINDS...WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY

MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS

SATURDAY NIGHT MAY GUST TO AROUND 50 MPH AT TIMES ESPECIALLY

ABOVE 3500 FEET

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Picked up 3/4 of an inch here as of 10:30 p.m. Radar showing an impressive area of snow moving in from KY now.

Precip. began here around 4 this afternoon as a R/S mix below 1600 ft. with all snow above that ele. from the get go. It became all snow here around 6 as intensity increased. Very wet snow as temp has held @ 32 for much of the time.

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Picked up 3/4 of an inch here as of 10:30 p.m. Radar showing an impressive area of snow moving in from KY now.

Precip. began here around 4 this afternoon as a R/S mix below 1600 ft. with all snow above that ele. from the get go. It became all snow here around 6 as intensity increased. Very wet snow as temp has held @ 32 for much of the time.

All rain here so far, temp is around 34. Painful waiting game.

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