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Valentine's day 2012 system


Cheeznado

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A thought from Andy...interesting

looks as if the west coast system may be undergoing a weakening trend which may lead to the valentine's system staying a bit stronger for a longer time and this could mean more moisture gets pulled from the gulf of mexico

Could be. The 6z trends looked stronger to me with the ejecting s/w and now the NAM 12z has a much better , consolidated s/w, very healthy looking , but once again all models still vaporize it immediately upon entry east of the Apps. However, west of the Apps, this is boding much better. For like Memphis, a start to snow, possibly some accumulation before the changeover. Same for the southern part of Missouri and southern strip of Kentucky and much of Tennessee as its cold enough to begin as snow before a changeover. Maybe even down to northern Alabama and northern GA (think the north Central mtns of GA have a great shot of accums.)

If the trend on the models is to hold the southern ejecting s/w in tact, for longer distance , as was common last Winter, then there could be hope this becomes a more substantial deal. Not a lot, but anything is pretty big this season. Interesting that the thicknesses never rise at all around I-40 from ARK through Tennessee....a classic sign of northeast Confluence and the Midwest system absorbed into the southern wave. With those mid level thickenss so low around MEM to BNA could be a changeover from snow to sleet or mix, not rain.

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models do indeed develop a meso-high inland, as I thought they would in this event. But this event still looks weak, and almost non-existent east of the Apps. My favorite spot for snow in terms of hours falling/max intensity is central Tenn to east TN, and down to n. Central GA. overnight Monday night , possibly the sw mountains of NC. After that all models continue showing the system fall apart almost instantly entering the Carolinas, hard to argue with that for now.

Also, good confluence exists as the s/w approaches, but the s/w in question is extremely weak and decaying, thanks to the stronger one behind it.

I'm just curious, do you think a 1mb stronger pressure is going to make a significant difference in the outcome of this event? The images you show has a 1023mb pressure instead of 1022. I also wouldn't look at the GFS for a mesoscale feature, as it's grid spacing is too large to accurately resolve them to begin with. If insitu cad sets up, I agree there could be a brief window where this phenomenon can happen as that is generally what happens in insitu cad situations, but the warm air advection is going to overwhelm that. I don't think this will impact the event in any significant way - in other words, it's still going to be a very quick snow to rain transition, and I think the forecasted highs aren't going to be impacted very much unless a lot more precipitation develops - but that wouldn't be due to the meso-high.

Edit: Of course this is all relevant - in GA where the precip gets in sooner (which is what we needed up here in central NC) they will stay snow/sleet longer because of stronger insitu cad, but the point is I'm curious if you're insinuating that a meso-high is going to prolong this in any way, because that I wouldn't agree with.

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I'm just curious, do you think a 1mb stronger pressure is going to make a significant difference in the outcome of this event? The images you show has a 1023mb pressure instead of 1022. I also wouldn't look at the GFS for a mesoscale feature, as it's grid spacing is too large to accurately resolve them to begin with. If insitu cad sets up, I agree there could be a brief window where this phenomenon can happen as that is generally what happens in insitu cad situations, but the warm air advection is going to overwhelm that. I don't think this will impact the event in any significant way - in other words, it's still going to be a very quick snow to rain transition, and I think the forecasted highs aren't going to be impacted very much unless a lot more precipitation develops - but that wouldn't be due to the meso-high.

Edit: Of course this is all relevant - in GA where the precip gets in sooner (which is what we needed up here in central NC) they will stay snow/sleet longer because of stronger insitu cad, but the point is I'm curious if you're insinuating that a meso-high is going to prolong this in any way, because that I wouldn't agree with.

No I am saying that the meso high is showing up where the models saturate the air in this instance , Ga or western SC. It's not a big deal yet, but is been trending toward my thinking, that one would probably begin to show up in the modeling, as it usually does in this particular type of setup. So far though, it still looks very weak, and no big deal really. Once again, I rarely use models as the end all or at pure face value, each situation is unique, but in the end, I prefer synoptics and it's served me well over the years and more often than not working from the big outside picture and working in works better for me. But each his has their own method.

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No I am saying that the meso high is showing up where the models saturate the air in this instance , Ga or western SC. It's not a big deal yet, but is been trending toward my thinking, that one would probably begin to show up in the modeling, as it usually does in this particular type of setup. So far though, it still looks very weak, and no big deal really. Once again, I rarely use models as the end all or at pure face value, each situation is unique, but in the end, I prefer synoptics and it's served me well over the years and more often than not working from the big outside picture and working in works better for me. But each his has their own method.

No doubt and I agree, if you don't use some of your own intuition and knowledge you aren't forecasting, you're just picking a model. It sounds like we're in the same camp on this one for the most part though, thanks for clarifying.

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I do not understand...I see the 12z GFS and it shows the moisture disappearing when it is on the border of SC/NC. Is this due to the dewpoints being so low? I would figure that places like lower Tenn and GA would be in the same arena in terms of DP's? Or is NC benefitting from a better feed of cold air (CAD)? Thanks for any input on this!

Edit: I meant to say "is NC being robbed of moisture b/c of the low DP's/CAD?

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Hey Larry! Thanks for the info. Do yu see even any snow chances (a dusting) anywhere else on theEuro? A chance for snow flurries will be great for me.

The problem with the Euro is that between hours it's hard to tell. Before the moisture comes in it's cold enough for our backyards but when the moisture "appears" in the following six hours it's too warm. Guess we couldn't rule out a few flakes or a front end flurry but the Euro didn't look too hot even for that.

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Looks like this event is shaping up to possibly be an advisory event for areas or NE Alabama, SE Tenn, and Nrn GA. Climo would tend to agree. esp since models are most likely underdoing precip amounts like all year, also to slow with start time as normal per this setup and the fact that models show best forcing/moisture to move through between around 9:PM-4:AM (Best temp profile Aloft per soundings) which would also add to the chance IMO.

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The problem with the Euro is that between hours it's hard to tell. Before the moisture comes in it's cold enough for our backyards but when the moisture "appears" in the following six hours it's too warm. Guess we couldn't rule out a few flakes or a front end flurry but the Euro didn't look too hot even for that.

Well, this is the one I was betting on way back when, and yesterdays system sure brought down the cold. It is great out there today. ONe of the most enjoyable outside days, with the wind making it colder and colder. But this doesn't seem to last on Goofy, and the 850's are only good for the first quarter inch, and the storm I was betting on was a gangbuster gulf low with some bite, and now it has less than a half inch qpf. Still, NWS has me down for some sleet/ sleet/rain/rain so I have chances. Just hope the cold stays in longer, or the precip moves in faster. Right about now is when you really miss some blocking, and a decent tap!

How does the Doc treat the cold in general out thru time? It is more energetic than the GFS is down the line? Tony

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Wow, I guess every does not care about this any more?? The new NAM is a lot colder and somewhat wetter for north GA- has snow over all areas of the ATL metro and points north at 09Z

Cheeznado being optimistic....something is seriously wrong here. No need to worry though. Once the qpf hits the SC border, it will go "poof" just like it always does. Either that or 33 and rain.

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Wow, I guess every does not care about this any more?? The new NAM is a lot colder and somewhat wetter for north GA- has snow over all areas of the ATL metro and points north at 09Z

Still looks too dry for NC........ By the time the light precip gets to us, 850mb temp is too warm. Nothing to lock in the cold. Looks like a light mix, at best, changing to light rain for now. However, future model runs will bring a different look....... What's more important are the trends. Up until this point, the trend has been a warmer and drier system. Let's see what changes the 0z gfs and 0z euro have in store for us.

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I agree that folks farther east are likely hosed, the timing and weakening of the short wave are all working against you folks.

Even here a dusting on porches may be the most to hope for in this crappy year, maybe someone in NW GA up I-75 could squeeze out an inch.

You have been pretty bullish bout parts of N.GA getting something. I'm optimistic just based on that!

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I have taken my eyes off this one and don't have access to my normal suite of products as I am out of town. How is this looking for west and mid tn? I saw the local news cast which showed the rpm model animation and it showed all rain in all of TN and even up into KY. Last I got to look at things it looked like areas like BNA and Memphis could pick up a quick inch or two. Are the mid levels warming on the various models?

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Wow, I guess every does not care about this any more?? The new NAM is a lot colder and somewhat wetter for north GA- has snow over all areas of the ATL metro and points north at 09Z

I care cheeze! Im pretty excited about it but the board in general is loaded with NC foothills brethren so you dont see widespread excitement. Ive seen these type of systems give us (nw sc) a couple inches before switching over to sleet then rain. Unlike lilj says we in Oconee have had no problem with precip going poof once it hits the boarder. No high expectations but definitely believe it COULD be a decent event here and NeGa.

Not to mention YOU are optimistic so that tells me a lot.

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Interesting how I have gotten a reputation of being "pessimistic"- I try to be realistic, not pessimistic or optimistic.

Back on the subject, the 00Z WSI RPM has a band of about 1" across northern LA and north GA mainly north of the ATL perimeter, with 2" in far NE GA and NW SC. Most other places incl NC and most of TN not much. Kind of an odd setup.

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I’m expecting a burst of snow here around daybreak Tuesday. I’ll happily take a dusting, but i’ll be content with just seeing flakes fly. Anything more than a dusting would really surprise me. I feel like North Central, GA is in a very good spot and somebody in that area will see couple inches.

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Wow, I guess every does not care about this any more?? The new NAM is a lot colder and somewhat wetter for north GA- has snow over all areas of the ATL metro and points north at 09Z

I KNOW! RIGHT?? I think we will not see a "good handle" from the models until late tomorrow. I am excited for everyone in the Ga/Tenn area. I live 10 miles SW of CLT, close to the NC/SC border. most models show the CLT area as getting a dreaded dry slot. I guess we have some serious DP's? I guess that could be a good thing if precip arrives at the right time of day and with appropriate intensity (cool the column). Thanks for all your insight Cheez.

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Interesting how I have gotten a reputation of being "pessimistic"- I try to be realistic, not pessimistic or optimistic.

Back on the subject, the 00Z WSI RPM has a band of about 1" across northern LA and north GA mainly north of the ATL perimeter, with 2" in far NE GA and NW SC. Most other places incl NC and most of TN not much. Kind of an odd setup.

Thanks for the updates!!

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Interesting how I have gotten a reputation of being "pessimistic"- I try to be realistic, not pessimistic or optimistic.

Back on the subject, the 00Z WSI RPM has a band of about 1" across northern LA and north GA mainly north of the ATL perimeter, with 2" in far NE GA and NW SC. Most other places incl NC and most of TN not much. Kind of an odd setup.

Ive always respected your opinion and thoughts. A realistic met who calls it like he sees it, good or bad. Carry on!

When i was younger nw sc did better than most of the upstate on many occasions when very little was forecast. I wonder if these were those type of set ups?

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I KNOW! RIGHT?? I think we will not see a "good handle" from the models until late tomorrow. I am excited for everyone in the Ga/Tenn area. I live 10 miles SW of CLT, close to the NC/SC border. most models show the CLT area as getting a dreaded dry slot. I guess we have some serious DP's? I guess that could be a good thing if precip arrives at the right time of day and with appropriate intensity (cool the column). Thanks for all your insight Cheez.

I think the much bigger deal with this Rankin is the weakening wave AND the fact that it is tracking more toward the Ohio Valley instead of the TN Valley. CLT sounding at 7AM Tues on the NAM has 36 deg, with a dewpoint of 22. Good moisture would easily overcome that dewpoint depression.

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