ams30721us Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Remember it like it was yesterday...that one burned me pretty good...came in at midday...previous day was in the upper 50s IIRC and a nice 3 hr drive home...That storm had a great deal more moisture with it...KCHA ended up with ~1.5 liquid from it. We won't see anything like that this time...BTW, I have saved radar from it as well as snow totals from Tenn.... Jan 29, 2010 ROCKY FORK, TN 14.0 HUNTSVILLE, TN 10.0 PARIS 7.5 NASHVILLE 7.0 DYER 7.0 KINGSPORT 6.0 ALLARDT 6.0 CHARLESTON 6.0 JACKSON 6.0 MANCHESTER 6.0 ATHENS 5.0 CENTERVILLE 5.0 HOHENWALD 5.0 CHATTANOOGA 4.7 KNOXVILLE 4.5 PADUCAH 3.2 MEMPHIS 2.0 Nice. Yea that one burned me also! This system over produced quite a bit in this area. I was forecasting an inch and even that at the time seemed pretty risky the night before. Evap. Cooling is a serious thing. I agree this will not be that system. Prior to the Jan 2011 system it was the biggest Snowfall around these parts since the 90s. (ps thanks for the images, I think I will keep these myself) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 New 12z Canadian is: 1) slightly slower with the max QPF for GA 2) slightly warmer at 850 3) lower on the QPF. My gut tells me that this will be the trend as the event gets closer but hopefully I am wrong. CMC is more of a Frz. rain event after a start of some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 New Euro Mon morning...colder than the GFS at 850mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 12Z Doc cuts back further on TN 2/14 snow again with most places now under 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 12Z Doc cuts back further on TN 2/14 snow again with most places now under 2". No surprise here. It is frustrating tho after all the copious amounts of rain this year, we look to get the shaft when its actually cold enough. I hope this holds together longer in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 You can really see the cold air on the water vapor loop on this page http://www.daculaweather.com/current_us_sat_image.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Please keep this thread on the Valentine's day threat. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 All posts regarding the Euro 2/20 threat have been moved to the general long range disco thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 It seems all the models in the 12z suite obliterate the blocking around greenland, which obviously has consequences for holding cold air in with this storm. That, combined with the drop off in qpf (it seems everything has trended wetter this year for my area, so I'm not worried about qpf yet) obviously hurts totals. I'm not so certain that the -nao breaks down so quickly. The only hopeful thing I saw today was the 12z ensemble members which were the snowiest I've seen for this event (and snowier than any run of the euro op to date). 3 ensembles have no snow, the rest of them have at least 2 inches (and in some cases 4-6+) for northern arkansas tennessee northernmost alabama and ga. I'll take that for the time being. If things look worse at 0z, I'll start getting concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Please keep this thread on the Valentine's day threat. Thanks. What threat? Flurries? This has never been anything major at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The new 18Z NAM does not offer much hope when compared to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 What threat? Flurries? This has never been anything major at all. Being something major and being an event or two different things. This has been and still is shown to be an event for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 18Z GFS increases the moisture further east and holds the cold in a bit longer. That should please 95% of this board as it seems everyone on here is from NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 18Z GFS increases the moisture further east and holds the cold in a bit longer. That should please 95% of this board as it seems everyone on here is from NC. It is better... marginally. The difference between nothing and sprinkles/flurries I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 It is better... marginally. The difference between nothing and sprinkles/flurries I guess. Its a trend NOTHING... SPRINKLES....FLURRIES...SNOW...BLIZZARD....and the end result NOTHING AGAIN! At least for the Bermuda Triangle of North Carolina. Might as well as jump off a cliff now. I kid I kid. In all seriousness it is trending in a good direction for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I will gladly take an hour or two of snow followed by some sleet then rain. Heck its a lot better than a 5 minute flizzard. Hopefully it moves in a little earlier in the good cold air! We still have a ways to go for strengthening or weaking, earlier or later to be worked out. It can alter all the way up till monday 12 or 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 FWIW, a lot of the 18z ensemble members are much wetter for the event. We are far enough out; 90hrs, for things to easily change. It looks like the cold air will be in place for a burst of snow in NE GA, NW SC and Western NC. It’s just a matter of how much precip this wave can generate. The difference between 1/10th inch and 1/2 inch is very easily changeable on the models. I fully expect things to change over the next 2 or 3 days. All we can do is hope for the best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Trends with the wave today are for it to be weaker and farther N / NE with the track....both bad for temps and precip....and it continues with the 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 0z NAM still looking interesting. Definitly some good precip amounts to the west in Tenn. The initial air mass is cold/dry and we may get some decent evaporational cooling with the onset of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Right now, I just don't see enough spacing between systems or enough cold air in place. Could happen for sure, but is looking doubtful. The NAO is taking a look a negative for an albeit short time. Might signal some mischief, but right now just not much there to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 0z GFS at 96...GAME OVER!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Per 0Z Goofy, jackpot is now at intersection of GA/AL/TN (west of Chat.) with 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 00z Euro and CMC throws in a bit more moisture which allows for more Evap. cooling. This allows for the Wintry Mix across N GA and N Alabama Monday night into Tuesday Morning. Looks like things will depend on how much moisture we get to move NE over the area at the onset. The more intense the precip shield the better. 00z CMC actually throws in the most across N GA and keeps us mainly wintry precip through the event. So far the others all warm the column enough for just rain at the end but the period between Midnight and 6:AM looks to still be the interesting timeframe. [/url"]http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/1653/1amtue.png[/img][/url] 00z Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 00z Euro and CMC throws in a bit more moisture which allows for more Evap. cooling. This allows for the Wintry Mix across N GA and N Alabama Monday night into Tuesday Morning. Looks like things will depend on how much moisture we get to move NE over the area at the onset. The more intense the precip shield the better. 00z CMC actually throws in the most across N GA and keeps us mainly wintry precip through the event. So far the others all warm the column enough for just rain at the end but the period between Midnight and 6:AM looks to still be the interesting timeframe. http://img703.images...1653/1amtue.png[/img][/url] 00z Euro: Bring it on!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 models do indeed develop a meso-high inland, as I thought they would in this event. But this event still looks weak, and almost non-existent east of the Apps. My favorite spot for snow in terms of hours falling/max intensity is central Tenn to east TN, and down to n. Central GA. overnight Monday night , possibly the sw mountains of NC. After that all models continue showing the system fall apart almost instantly entering the Carolinas, hard to argue with that for now. Also, good confluence exists as the s/w approaches, but the s/w in question is extremely weak and decaying, thanks to the stronger one behind it. You can see the GFS cold pocket and weak high inland where it thinks the most precip will be, normally this is something that occurs in Va or NC, but this event looks more toward western SC or GA. Regardless it will be a raw day in northern GA Tuesday, and the forecast upper 40's look too warm, since there will be low clouds, light precip and east winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 models do indeed develop a meso-high inland, as I thought they would in this event. But this event still looks weak, and almost non-existent east of the Apps. My favorite spot for snow in terms of hours falling/max intensity is central Tenn to east TN, and down to n. Central GA. overnight Monday night , possibly the sw mountains of NC. After that all models continue showing the system fall apart almost instantly entering the Carolinas, hard to argue with that for now. Also, good confluence exists as the s/w approaches, but the s/w in question is extremely weak and decaying, thanks to the stronger one behind it. You can see the GFS cold pocket and weak high inland where it thinks the most precip will be, normally this is something that occurs in Va or NC, but this event looks more toward western SC or GA. Regardless it will be a raw day in northern GA Tuesday, and the forecast upper 40's look too warm, since there will be low clouds, light precip and east winds. This may look ominous attm, but this system is still a ways out (with time) AND climb is always on our side with this thing moving a little further northward. Also, we may see more intensity. I just hope that there becomes a trend for the better an there is at least a widespread dusting! ;) us winter lovers need a small-take what you can get kind of victory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 This may look ominous attm, but this system is still a ways out (with time) AND climb is always on our side with this thing moving a little further northward. Also, we may see more intensity. I just hope that there becomes a trend for the better an there is at least a widespread dusting! ;) us winter lovers need a small-take what you can get kind of victory! I think there's a reasonably good shot that a few flakes can be scattered east of the mountains toward our area Jason, but that will probably be about the extent of it (flakes, sleet pellets, then drizzle). Enough to say we won't have a completely flake-less winter here from CLT west. Further east it looks like the chances of any flakes are close to zero, but not impossible. I'm more interested in the next system for NC, and there's a few systems that have 50/50 low and weak southern Greenland ridging, supressed flow, so we're not done with chances atleast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I think there's a reasonably good shot that a few flakes can be scattered east of the mountains toward our area Jason, but that will probably be about the extent of it (flakes, sleet pellets, then drizzle). Enough to say we won't have a completely flake-less winter here from CLT west. Further east it looks like the chances of any flakes are close to zero, but not impossible. I'm more interested in the next system for NC, and there's a few systems that have 50/50 low and weak southern Greenland ridging, supressed flow, so we're not done with chances atleast. you need to share that with several others on here. I have seen about 20 flakes this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 A thought from Andy...interesting looks as if the west coast system may be undergoing a weakening trend which may lead to the valentine's system staying a bit stronger for a longer time and this could mean more moisture gets pulled from the gulf of mexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 A thought from Andy...interesting looks as if the west coast system may be undergoing a weakening trend which may lead to the valentine's system staying a bit stronger for a longer time and this could mean more moisture gets pulled from the gulf of mexico NAM continues the trend of warmer and drier. This system is now looking very pathetic. Unless we see some quick changes, the threat of seeing any winter weather will be over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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