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Valentine's day 2012 system


Cheeznado

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Remember it like it was yesterday...that one burned me pretty good...came in at midday...previous day was in the upper 50s IIRC and a nice 3 hr drive home...That storm had a great deal more moisture with it...KCHA ended up with ~1.5 liquid from it. We won't see anything like that this time...BTW, I have saved radar from it as well as snow totals from Tenn....

Jan 29, 2010

ROCKY FORK, TN 14.0

HUNTSVILLE, TN 10.0

PARIS 7.5

NASHVILLE 7.0

DYER 7.0

KINGSPORT 6.0

ALLARDT 6.0

CHARLESTON 6.0

JACKSON 6.0

MANCHESTER 6.0

ATHENS 5.0

CENTERVILLE 5.0

HOHENWALD 5.0

CHATTANOOGA 4.7

KNOXVILLE 4.5

PADUCAH 3.2

MEMPHIS 2.0

Nice. Yea that one burned me also! This system over produced quite a bit in this area. I was forecasting an inch and even that at the time seemed pretty risky the night before. Evap. Cooling is a serious thing. I agree this will not be that system. Prior to the Jan 2011 system it was the biggest Snowfall around these parts since the 90s. (ps thanks for the images, I think I will keep these myself)

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It seems all the models in the 12z suite obliterate the blocking around greenland, which obviously has consequences for holding cold air in with this storm. That, combined with the drop off in qpf (it seems everything has trended wetter this year for my area, so I'm not worried about qpf yet) obviously hurts totals.

I'm not so certain that the -nao breaks down so quickly.

The only hopeful thing I saw today was the 12z ensemble members which were the snowiest I've seen for this event (and snowier than any run of the euro op to date).

3 ensembles have no snow, the rest of them have at least 2 inches (and in some cases 4-6+) for northern arkansas tennessee northernmost alabama and ga.

I'll take that for the time being. If things look worse at 0z, I'll start getting concerned.

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It is better... marginally. The difference between nothing and sprinkles/flurries I guess.

Its a trend NOTHING... SPRINKLES....FLURRIES...SNOW...BLIZZARD....and the end result NOTHING AGAIN! At least for the Bermuda Triangle of North Carolina. Might as well as jump off a cliff now. I kid I kid. In all seriousness it is trending in a good direction for once.

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I will gladly take an hour or two of snow followed by some sleet then rain. Heck its a lot better than a 5 minute flizzard. Hopefully it moves in a little earlier in the good cold air!

We still have a ways to go for strengthening or weaking, earlier or later to be worked out. It can alter all the way up till monday 12 or 18Z.

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FWIW, a lot of the 18z ensemble members are much wetter for the event. We are far enough out; 90hrs, for things to easily change. It looks like the cold air will be in place for a burst of snow in NE GA, NW SC and Western NC. It’s just a matter of how much precip this wave can generate. The difference between 1/10th inch and 1/2 inch is very easily changeable on the models. I fully expect things to change over the next 2 or 3 days. All we can do is hope for the best!

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00z Euro and CMC throws in a bit more moisture which allows for more Evap. cooling. This allows for the Wintry Mix across N GA and N Alabama Monday night into Tuesday Morning. Looks like things will depend on how much moisture we get to move NE over the area at the onset. The more intense the precip shield the better. 00z CMC actually throws in the most across N GA and keeps us mainly wintry precip through the event. So far the others all warm the column enough for just rain at the end but the period between Midnight and 6:AM looks to still be the interesting timeframe.

6pmmon.png

9pmmon.png

midnighttue.png

[/url"]http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/1653/1amtue.png[/img][/url]

2amtue.png

3amtue.png

4amtue.png

5amtue.png

8amtue.png

00z Euro:

12zeuro.jpg

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00z Euro and CMC throws in a bit more moisture which allows for more Evap. cooling. This allows for the Wintry Mix across N GA and N Alabama Monday night into Tuesday Morning. Looks like things will depend on how much moisture we get to move NE over the area at the onset. The more intense the precip shield the better. 00z CMC actually throws in the most across N GA and keeps us mainly wintry precip through the event. So far the others all warm the column enough for just rain at the end but the period between Midnight and 6:AM looks to still be the interesting timeframe.

6pmmon.png

9pmmon.png

midnighttue.png

http://img703.images...1653/1amtue.png[/img][/url]

2amtue.png

3amtue.png

4amtue.png

5amtue.png

8amtue.png

00z Euro:

12zeuro.jpg

Bring it on!!!!!

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models do indeed develop a meso-high inland, as I thought they would in this event. But this event still looks weak, and almost non-existent east of the Apps. My favorite spot for snow in terms of hours falling/max intensity is central Tenn to east TN, and down to n. Central GA. overnight Monday night , possibly the sw mountains of NC. After that all models continue showing the system fall apart almost instantly entering the Carolinas, hard to argue with that for now.

Also, good confluence exists as the s/w approaches, but the s/w in question is extremely weak and decaying, thanks to the stronger one behind it.

post-38-0-89595900-1328961761.gif

You can see the GFS cold pocket and weak high inland where it thinks the most precip will be, normally this is something that occurs in Va or NC, but this event looks more toward western SC or GA. Regardless it will be a raw day in northern GA Tuesday, and the forecast upper 40's look too warm, since there will be low clouds, light precip and east winds.

post-38-0-34445300-1328961763.gif

post-38-0-70226700-1328961764.gif

post-38-0-92166800-1328961771.gif

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models do indeed develop a meso-high inland, as I thought they would in this event. But this event still looks weak, and almost non-existent east of the Apps. My favorite spot for snow in terms of hours falling/max intensity is central Tenn to east TN, and down to n. Central GA. overnight Monday night , possibly the sw mountains of NC. After that all models continue showing the system fall apart almost instantly entering the Carolinas, hard to argue with that for now.

Also, good confluence exists as the s/w approaches, but the s/w in question is extremely weak and decaying, thanks to the stronger one behind it.

post-38-0-89595900-1328961761.gif

You can see the GFS cold pocket and weak high inland where it thinks the most precip will be, normally this is something that occurs in Va or NC, but this event looks more toward western SC or GA. Regardless it will be a raw day in northern GA Tuesday, and the forecast upper 40's look too warm, since there will be low clouds, light precip and east winds.

post-38-0-34445300-1328961763.gif

post-38-0-70226700-1328961764.gif

post-38-0-92166800-1328961771.gif

This may look ominous attm, but this system is still a ways out (with time) AND climb is always on our side with this thing moving a little further northward. Also, we may see more intensity. I just hope that there becomes a trend for the better an there is at least a widespread dusting! ;) ;) us winter lovers need a small-take what you can get kind of victory!

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This may look ominous attm, but this system is still a ways out (with time) AND climb is always on our side with this thing moving a little further northward. Also, we may see more intensity. I just hope that there becomes a trend for the better an there is at least a widespread dusting! ;) ;) us winter lovers need a small-take what you can get kind of victory!

I think there's a reasonably good shot that a few flakes can be scattered east of the mountains toward our area Jason, but that will probably be about the extent of it (flakes, sleet pellets, then drizzle). Enough to say we won't have a completely flake-less winter here from CLT west. Further east it looks like the chances of any flakes are close to zero, but not impossible. I'm more interested in the next system for NC, and there's a few systems that have 50/50 low and weak southern Greenland ridging, supressed flow, so we're not done with chances atleast.

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I think there's a reasonably good shot that a few flakes can be scattered east of the mountains toward our area Jason, but that will probably be about the extent of it (flakes, sleet pellets, then drizzle). Enough to say we won't have a completely flake-less winter here from CLT west. Further east it looks like the chances of any flakes are close to zero, but not impossible. I'm more interested in the next system for NC, and there's a few systems that have 50/50 low and weak southern Greenland ridging, supressed flow, so we're not done with chances atleast.

you need to share that with several others on here. I have seen about 20 flakes this year

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A thought from Andy...interesting

looks as if the west coast system may be undergoing a weakening trend which may lead to the valentine's system staying a bit stronger for a longer time and this could mean more moisture gets pulled from the gulf of mexico

NAM continues the trend of warmer and drier. This system is now looking very pathetic. Unless we see some quick changes, the threat of seeing any winter weather will be over.

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