burgertime Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Not sure why people are throwing in the towel because of one set of model runs. Not saying we will get snow...but as of right now everything is still on the table good and bad. It's going to come down to timing, but one run of models pulling back on precip is nothing new. We see it every storm...in fact I seem to recall the NAM during the Christmas storm last year going bonkers with precip, then going dry just to go back to being really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 It's probably not a good thing that I am far MORE impressed with these maps than I am for what the maps look like for the Monday night-Tuesday system. That doesn't bode well at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Is that you? Great forecasting there man. Thanks man! That was during some of my earlier days. I have improved a good bit since those days I hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 It's probably not a good thing that I am far MORE impressed with these maps than I am for what the maps look like for the Monday night-Tuesday system. That doesn't bode well at all. Not really. It would be typical to be far more impressed with these maps since this system (That dropped 5-8 inches in this area was far more impressive than the maps actually even show...Especially since suprisingly somehow NE GA apparently did not even get snow from this I guess even with the strong CAD in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Not sure why people are throwing in the towel because of one set of model runs. Not saying we will get snow...but as of right now everything is still on the table good and bad. It's going to come down to timing, but one run of models pulling back on precip is nothing new. We see it every storm...in fact I seem to recall the NAM during the Christmas storm last year going bonkers with precip, then going dry just to go back to being really good. Not all of us ever had a towel in the mix to begin with. The synoptic pattern and timing are not conducive to even the onset of the event being winter weather in the eastem 2/3 of NC. The most it could ever be is a wet flake or two from CLT to RDU and 100% all rain east of there, but even that is unlikely, even with last night's solutions, in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Here is my weather log entry for that deal. Yawn..... 6 1/30/2010 ZR/Snow .1" About 1/10" of freezing rain then later that afternoon light snow for about an hour for a dusting. Gulf low overrunning CAD. That is incredible. How did that happen? 5-8 inches here yet higher up only a bit of Freezing Rain? WAA warm yall up to quick in the higher elevations or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 That is incredible. How did that happen? 5-8 inches here yet higher up only a bit of Freezing Rain? WAA warm yall up to quick in the higher elevations or what? WAA. You got the heavy QPF at just the right time while I got the light pitter patter stuff. I remember that day and how it irked me to see Dalton getting dumped while I got basically ZIP. Oh well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Here is my weather log entry for that deal. Yawn..... 6 1/30/2010 ZR/Snow .1" About 1/10" of freezing rain then later that afternoon light snow for about an hour for a dusting. Gulf low overrunning CAD. PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) STATION: CHATTANOOGA ASOS MONTH: JANUARY YEAR: 2010 LATITUDE: 35 1 N LONGITUDE: 85 12 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR =============================================================================== 28 59 31 45 5 20 0 T T 0 5.0 14 350 M M 7 17 340 29 39 31 35 -5 30 0 1.16 4.8 2 9.6 18 10 M M 9 1246 22 20 30 36 28 32 -8 33 0 0.45 0.2 0 4.8 16 340 M M 10 146 20 340 31 40 25 33 -7 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.8 17 360 M M 7 21 360 -------------------------------------------------------------- STATION: ATLANTA 28 62 34 48 5 17 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.2 20 310 M M 6 25 310 29 49 37 43 -1 22 0 0.14 0.0 0 10.9 25 80 M M 9 30 80 30 38 31 35 -9 30 0 0.30 T 0 12.3 22 80 M M 10 12 26 80 31 45 26 36 -8 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.7 21 340 M M 8 29 350 It isn't surprising that Atlanta got no measurable S/IP due to the track being quite a bit north of the climo favored track for sig. snow at Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 It's probably not a good thing that I am far MORE impressed with these maps than I am for what the maps look like for the Monday night-Tuesday system. That doesn't bode well at all. Yeah, that one was much more impressive with the precip amts and temp setup....Tues is marginal for both (precip and temps) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Not all of us ever had a towel in the mix to begin with. The synoptic pattern and timing are not conducive to even the onset of the event being winter weather in the eastem 2/3 of NC. The most it could ever be is a wet flake or two from CLT to RDU and 100% all rain east of there, but even that is unlikely, even with last night's solutions, in my opinion. So I take it you disagree with other posters who feel a High could slide into VA creating a In Situ CAD or a hybrid CAD and with dynamics help cool the column? I don't disagree that this is far from a perfect setup. Just holding out hope still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yeah, that one was much more impressive with the precip amts and temp setup....Tues is marginal for both (precip and temps) While I am not thinking anything like that day happens with this, I was just showing the fact these can produce in these Evaportational Cooling events. Of course that being said lets remember this system also was very marginal on both ahead of time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 12z GFS run getting close to our timeframe for this storm.... Hr 69 NAM vs GFS shows big difference in how cold the air will be at the onset of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 So I take it you disagree with other posters who feel a High could slide into VA creating a In Situ CAD or a hybrid CAD and with dynamics help cool the column? I don't disagree that this is far from a perfect setup. Just holding out hope still. In my own humble opinion, looking at the H5 pattern I see no way that a meso high is going to form in VA which would result in hybrid CAD (which consists of both contributions from a parent high and evapotational cooling from precipitation). Why? Look at the H5/H7 flow by 00z Tuesday, there's no confluence to be found on the east coast, it's almost a pure southwesterly flow. Furthermore, every model run I've looked at to date shows the low levels becoming too warm to support anything other than a very, VERY brief onset of a few wet flakes in the areas I mentioned before quickly changing over to rain. This entire event is driven by WAA and with dewpoints rising rapidly from the single digits into the twenties as precipitation begins to arrive, there just isn't going to be a significant cad wedge in my opinion. This is different than some similar events such as 2/1/2007 in that the high slides offshore and return flow sets up for a longer period of time before precipitation arrives. I had discussed how our low level thicknesses are a good 15-20m warmer at the onset of precipitation with this event than in 2007, so there just isn't enough dry air left to lock in a cold wedge and allow for a quick accumulation of snow before a changeover would occur. Sure, something drastic could change but looking at the big picture I think the chances of it trending greatly towards a wintry solution are slim to none for the eastern 2/3 of NC. Just my opinion though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Not all of us ever had a towel in the mix to begin with. The synoptic pattern and timing are not conducive to even the onset of the event being winter weather in the eastem 2/3 of NC. The most it could ever be is a wet flake or two from CLT to RDU and 100% all rain east of there, but even that is unlikely, even with last night's solutions, in my opinion. I hear you man, I have had serious doubts about this system since it's inception. The setup is just not very good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Out to 93 12z is a tad slower, warmer and less qpf than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 In my own humble opinion, looking at the H5 pattern I see no way that a meso high is going to form in VA which would result in hybrid CAD (which consists of both contributions from a parent high and evapotational cooling from precipitation). Why? Look at the H5/H7 flow by 00z Tuesday, there's no confluence to be found on the east coast, it's almost a pure southwesterly flow. Furthermore, every model run I've looked at to date shows the low levels becoming too warm to support anything other than a very, VERY brief onset of a few wet flakes in the areas I mentioned before quickly changing over to rain. This entire event is driven by WAA and with dewpoints rising rapidly from the single digits into the twenties as precipitation begins to arrive, there just isn't going to be a significant cad wedge in my opinion. This is different than some similar events such as 2/1/2007 in that the high slides offshore and return flow sets up for a longer period of time before precipitation arrives. I had discussed how our low level thicknesses are a good 15-20m warmer at the onset of precipitation with this event than in 2007, so there just isn't enough dry air left to lock in a cold wedge and allow for a quick accumulation of snow before a changeover would occur. Sure, something drastic could change but looking at the big picture I think the chances of it trending greatly towards a wintry solution are slim to none for the eastern 2/3 of NC. Just my opinion though! Thanks for the explanation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Thanks for the explanation! You're welcome, and that's just my take on it. I certainly don't have all the answers and I've been wrong before, so maybe I'm missing a piece of the puzzle - I hope so if it means I'll get to see snow. I don't ever mind being wrong when it means colder and snowier that's for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 12z GFS is depressing for folks in NC...we go dry fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 You're welcome, and that's just my take on it. I certainly don't have all the answers and I've been wrong before, so maybe I'm missing a piece of the puzzle - I hope so if it means I'll get to see snow. I don't ever mind being wrong when it means colder and snowier that's for sure! Well so far 12z seems to validate your points so I hope you bust horribly as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 12z GFS holds suite to quick hit snow in far northern counties of GA. Sometimes these type of systems can have a "finger" of precip that streaks out ahead and lays down a higher QPF in a very narrow band that usually yields an over achieving amount in a very narrow west to east band. Something like that is possible. I'm not saying likely...but possible. What I don't like about this whole thing is that right now everything is razor thin in far N GA so any slight deviations the wrong way throw the whole thing out the door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 12z GFS is depressing for folks in NC...we go dry fast. I would not go that far to say "depressing". There are still a LOT of cards left on the table. For instance, the precip and temperatures have busted (more precip-colder temps than progged) a lot of times this season. This is still 93+ hours out as well. Just sayin...keep the faith brotha! We will at least get to see some flurrie action. LOL. Still a lot of winter left. Thanks again for all your PBP. It is very helpful for us weenies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Sounds like if we get a few hit or miss flurries tomorrow, we better enjoy them because Tuesday may be another unicorn. I will be curious if any of the later runs look better but it sure looks like BrierCreekWx and Robert were all over this. Thanks Dalton, (sorry, I mean Moto) for your analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 So - I'm trying to understand how the gfs builds 582 heights in towards greenland, and then the pv just pushes it out of the way. If that doesn't happen, it would seem that temps will be much more favorable, evap cooling or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This is the 12z for NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTriadwx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This is the 12z for NC Well, that doesn't look good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This is the 12z for NC The warm air wedge it's showing in the western piedmont of NC at the 93h frame is certainly strange looking. Usually we only end up with cold air wedges. Not that it matters, there's no precip anyway, just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTriadwx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The warm air wedge it's showing in the western piedmont of NC at the 93h frame is certainly strange looking. Usually we only end up with cold air wedges. Not that it matters, there's no precip anyway, just curious. It's probably just the return flow around the high to our north. WAA flowing in from the sw due to the high retreating off the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 New 12z Canadian is: 1) slightly slower with the max QPF for GA 2) slightly warmer at 850 3) lower on the QPF. My gut tells me that this will be the trend as the event gets closer but hopefully I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yeah, that one was much more impressive with the precip amts and temp setup....Tues is marginal for both (precip and temps) Whenever I see this word being used for an event, I know to move on. Marginal = ain't gonna happen in CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Do you remember an event similar to this around Jan. 2010 by chance? I remember Chattanooga got like 4 or 5 inches. It came fast and hard with whiteout conditions for about an hour before tapering down and mixing then ending as some light rain. But not before snarling traffic and trapping kids at school and on buses for hours. I can't remember the exact date. I just remember it too dealt with Evap. cooling that was supposed to be a minor Snow to sleet to rain event that turned into a sloppy mess in the valleys and all snow in the Higher Elevations. Remember it like it was yesterday...that one burned me pretty good...came in at midday...previous day was in the upper 50s IIRC and a nice 3 hr drive home...That storm had a great deal more moisture with it...KCHA ended up with ~1.5 liquid from it. We won't see anything like that this time...BTW, I have saved radar from it as well as snow totals from Tenn.... Jan 29, 2010 ROCKY FORK, TN 14.0 HUNTSVILLE, TN 10.0 PARIS 7.5 NASHVILLE 7.0 DYER 7.0 KINGSPORT 6.0 ALLARDT 6.0 CHARLESTON 6.0 JACKSON 6.0 MANCHESTER 6.0 ATHENS 5.0 CENTERVILLE 5.0 HOHENWALD 5.0 CHATTANOOGA 4.7 KNOXVILLE 4.5 PADUCAH 3.2 MEMPHIS 2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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