Valentine's day 2012 system

[ams30721us]

00z Euro images:

[superjames1992]

I'm not seeing a lot of hope from this system, but a few flakes would be nice. It's mid-February now and I've yet to see a single flake fall from the heavens.

[MotoWeatherman]

6z GFS holds server as does the EURO. EURO is way better for TN than the GFS but amounts die rapidly once you get past GA.

The far northern counties of GA are still in play as the bulk of QPF on the map would have fallen as snow. So verbatim the past 2 runs of GFS show 1-2" for the far northern counties of GA with P-Type mostly snow ending as some light rain or drizzle.

Still a long way to go but at least there is something to track. But it's still 95+ hours away....

[MotoWeatherman]

As has already been stated earlier, with the cold exiting but the bulk of the moisture falling as snow, on Feb 1st 2007 this is what happened IMBY:

1" of slush snow to rain when I lived in Dawsonville.

While 5" of wet snow fell on my lot in Dahlonega...where I live today. I believe NEGA did well on this one also.

[BrierCreekWx]

"WE WILL LEAVE CURRENT POP IN AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED WITH A SLIM CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY. THE P-TYPE WOULD LIKELY BE RAIN (WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE) IF WE DO GET ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP. THIS GIVEN THE FORECAST WARMING ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL THICKNESSES IN THE 1550+ RANGE AND RISING BETWEEN 12Z-18Z... AND THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES IN THE 1310M RANGE AND RISING."

Overnight RAH AFD echoes my sentiments exactly from last night. This is looking more and more like a non-event here in central NC, and to my surprise we may not even get much precipitation at all now if the wave continues to dampen like the overnight trends suggest.

[tnweathernut]

It certainly seems the trend overnight was to lower qpf for the entire system, especially more east. Even the Euro presentation wasn't as juiced up as prior runs. Time to reverse i suppose, but with a system on its heels, my guess is the lower qpf amounts are right (without taking into account what precipitation type will be)

[eyewall]

Looks like a bit of rain for Central NC.

[GaWx]

It certainly seems the trend overnight was to lower qpf for the entire system, especially more east. Even the Euro presentation wasn't as juiced up as prior runs. Time to reverse i suppose, but with a system on its heels, my guess is the lower qpf amounts are right (without taking into account what precipitation type will be)

Yeah, the 0z Euro lowered snowfall quite a bit vs. 12z. However, fwiw, it still gives most of TN a significant event with 2-3" for all but the far NE portion.

[Mr Bob]

Yeah, the 0z Euro lowered snowfall quite a bit vs. 12z. However, fwiw, it still gives most of TN a significant event with 2-3" for all but the far NE portion.

I don't know Larry...Maybe Nashville...North I 40, plateau, higher elevations...not big on southeast TN valley from CHA up to TYS...the timing is such that we may never actually see it unless you want to stay up all night long as it will likely be lost in the following rain if it does actually accumulate here...

[ams30721us]

I don't know Larry...Maybe Nashville...North I 40, plateau, higher elevations...not big on southeast TN valley from CHA up to TYS...the timing is such that we may never actually see it unless you want to stay up all night long as it will likely be lost in the following rain if it does actually accumulate here...

hmmm that possible I guess. although Most models last night were colder and in fact again has the bulk of precip falling in the wintery form. Seems like if current model trends hold it would not be to much rain. Esp. if the cooler air can stay trapped just a bit with a slight wedge. I love the timing as it stands currently and in fact thinks it helps out the area imo. Of course its still 5 days away so we will see if it trends warmer in the future. I am pretty impressed especially this year with the amount of agreement from all the globals on picking up the Evaporational Cooling process so far out with consistency and agreement fairly well so far.

[NEGa]

As has already been stated earlier, with the cold exiting but the bulk of the moisture falling as snow, on Feb 1st 2007 this is what happened IMBY:

While 5" of wet snow fell on my lot in Dahlonega...where I live today. I believe NEGA did well on this one also.

yes i did very well - seems like that was a case where just a little elevation made a huge difference in accumulations.

[ams30721us]

As has already been stated earlier, with the cold exiting but the bulk of the moisture falling as snow, on Feb 1st 2007 this is what happened IMBY:

1" of slush snow to rain when I lived in Dawsonville.

While 5" of wet snow fell on my lot in Dahlonega...where I live today. I believe NEGA did well on this one also.

Do you remember an event similar to this around Jan. 2010 by chance? I remember Chattanooga got like 4 or 5 inches. It came fast and hard with whiteout conditions for about an hour before tapering down and mixing then ending as some light rain. But not before snarling traffic and trapping kids at school and on buses for hours. I can't remember the exact date. I just remember it too dealt with Evap. cooling that was supposed to be a minor Snow to sleet to rain event that turned into a sloppy mess in the valleys and all snow in the Higher Elevations.

[19jpc]

Are you talking about February 28 - March 1 2010?

Do you remember an event similar to this around Jan. 2010 by chance? I remember Chattanooga got like 4 or 5 inches. It came fast and hard with whiteout conditions for about an hour before tapering down and mixing then ending as some light rain. But not before snarling traffic and trapping kids at school and on buses for hours. I can't remember the exact date. I just remember it too dealt with Evap. cooling that was supposed to be a minor Snow to sleet to rain event that turned into a sloppy mess in the valleys and all snow in the Higher Elevations.

[MotoWeatherman]

Do you remember an event similar to this around Jan. 2010 by chance? I remember Chattanooga got like 4 or 5 inches. It came fast and hard with whiteout conditions for about an hour before tapering down and mixing then ending as some light rain. But not before snarling traffic and trapping kids at school and on buses for hours. I can't remember the exact date. I just remember it too dealt with Evap. cooling that was supposed to be a minor Snow to sleet to rain event that turned into a sloppy mess in the valleys and all snow in the Higher Elevations.

Sorry...drawing a blank on that one. If it didn't happen IMBY, my memory usually forgets it pretty fast.

[ams30721us]

I am not sure. It could be, I will check that date to see. I thought it was a little earlier during the year but possibly. Lets check it out.

[Thrasher Fan]

12z NAM at hr 84. If only the freezing line could hold right there. I still believe there will be assistance from CAD with this storm. The strength is still hard to determine at this point.

[Stovepipe]

Do you remember an event similar to this around Jan. 2010 by chance? I remember Chattanooga got like 4 or 5 inches. It came fast and hard with whiteout conditions for about an hour before tapering down and mixing then ending as some light rain. But not before snarling traffic and trapping kids at school and on buses for hours. I can't remember the exact date. I just remember it too dealt with Evap. cooling that was supposed to be a minor Snow to sleet to rain event that turned into a sloppy mess in the valleys and all snow in the Higher Elevations.

I remember one of these around Jan 9th 2011. It was the most snow west Knoxville got all season and some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen fall. We ended up with about 3 inches. It was supposed to change over to rain but never did here. Pure whiteout condidtions.

[ams30721us]

Sorry...drawing a blank on that one. If it didn't happen IMBY, my memory usually forgets it pretty fast.

Ha thats okay man.

[ams30721us]

Okay dug through some old weather vids to find it. I remember this system because I was upset after trying to warn Dalton Public Schools that day this system could be a bigger deal and them not closing school early like everyone else. I also had a weather talk plan for that day with students so I was also trapped in the gridlock for an hour and a half in a 5 min drive and almost missed my first weather hit.

It was January 29th,2010. I know its not a perfect analog but in regards to Evap. Cooling etc. I will dig up the old maps here in a second if I can find any.

[iRoll]

I am not sure. It could be, I will check that date to see. I thought it was a little earlier during the year but possibly. Lets check it out.

I believe it was Jan 29, 2010. I remember hearing about kids stranded on buses and/or at school due to Whitfield/Dalton not releasing early when all other area schools did

*Oops, Sorry I posted this before I saw you had found it

[MotoWeatherman]

Okay dug through some old weather vids to find it. I remember this system because I was upset after trying to warn Dalton Public Schools that day this system could be a bigger deal and them not closing school early like everyone else. I also had a weather talk plan for that day with students so I was also trapped in the gridlock for an hour and a half in a 5 min drive and almost missed my first weather hit.

It was January 29th,2010. I know its not a perfect analog but in regards to Evap. Cooling etc. I will dig up the old maps here in a second if I can find any.

Looks like I just got a little bit of freezing rain from that one. Only pictures I have from Jan 29/30 is of freezing rain.

[Chattownsnow]

Do you remember an event similar to this around Jan. 2010 by chance? I remember Chattanooga got like 4 or 5 inches. It came fast and hard with whiteout conditions for about an hour before tapering down and mixing then ending as some light rain. But not before snarling traffic and trapping kids at school and on buses for hours. I can't remember the exact date. I just remember it too dealt with Evap. cooling that was supposed to be a minor Snow to sleet to rain event that turned into a sloppy mess in the valleys and all snow in the Higher Elevations.

Yeah I remember this storm well. it was Jan 29. 2010. the days leading up to the event it was a very tricky forecast as only a few degrees warmer or colder would completely change the forecast. most forecasts were for an inch or so then changing to rain later in the afternoon. It started snowing around 2pm and thats about when forecasts changed for the better. it continued snowing until about 8pm and finally changed to freezing drizzle but by then we had about 5 inches on the ground. I loved that storm because it ended up trending better at the last second as upposed to the usual in which things generally trended worse. here is a link to the blog for the storm in the local area

http://stormtrack9.f...ng.com/page/65/

[SN_Lover]

Iv'e given up hope for snow in the Piedmont of NC. Looks like the low will be decaying too fast.

[Southern Track]

Okay dug through some old weather vids to find it. I remember this system because I was upset after trying to warn Dalton Public Schools that day this system could be a bigger deal and them not closing school early like everyone else. I also had a weather talk plan for that day with students so I was also trapped in the gridlock for an hour and a half in a 5 min drive and almost missed my first weather hit.

It was January 29th,2010. I know its not a perfect analog but in regards to Evap. Cooling etc. I will dig up the old maps here in a second if I can find any.

Is that you? Great forecasting there man.

[ams30721us]

hmmm... thats odd. I know the Valley got hammered mainly from the first wave. The second wave was mainly Freezing rain/sleet down here but by that time the damage had been done. I remember them issuing Winter Storm Warnings right before news time after the first couple inches had fallen.

Here are some maps...Obviously right off the bat the High was in a better place but form Rome to Calhoun Northward got a very decent event out of it. WAA was slow in arriving.

[Tyler Penland]

Something to note is how badly the models generally handle wedges. They tend to kick it out WAY before it actually does and generally really overdo surface temps. I know the last one we had last month the called for high was 57 and we topped out at 45 with temps falling all afternoon bottoming out at 39 or something.

[ams30721us]

I believe it was Jan 29, 2010. I remember hearing about kids stranded on buses and/or at school due to Whitfield/Dalton not releasing early when all other area schools did

*Oops, Sorry I posted this before I saw you had found it

Yep, that was the one. Needless to say I got plenty of calls on what I thought from the schools after that storm! lol

[MotoWeatherman]

hmmm... thats odd. I know the Valley got hammered mainly from the first wave. The second wave was mainly Freezing rain/sleet down here but by that time the damage had been done. I remember them issuing Winter Storm Warnings right before news time after the first couple inches had fallen.

Here are some maps...Obviously right off the bat the High was in a better place but form Rome to Calhoun Northward got a very decent event out of it. WAA was slow in arriving.

Here is my weather log entry for that deal. Yawn.....

6 1/30/2010 ZR/Snow .1" About 1/10" of freezing rain then later that afternoon light snow for about an hour for a dusting. Gulf low overrunning CAD.

[MotoWeatherman]

Something to note is how badly the models generally handle wedges. They tend to kick it out WAY before it actually does and generally really overdo surface temps. I know the last one we had last month the called for high was 57 and we topped out at 45 with temps falling all afternoon bottoming out at 39 or something.

I agree with this regarding surface temps but regarding 850 temps the models usually do a good job...CAD or not.

[ams30721us]

Yeah I remember this storm well. it was Jan 29. 2010. the days leading up to the event it was a very tricky forecast as only a few degrees warmer or colder would completely change the forecast. most forecasts were for an inch or so then changing to rain later in the afternoon. It started snowing around 2pm and thats about when forecasts changed for the better. it continued snowing until about 8pm and finally changed to freezing drizzle but by then we had about 5 inches on the ground. I loved that storm because it ended up trending better at the last second as upposed to the usual in which things generally trended worse. here is a link to the blog for the storm in the local area

http://stormtrack9.f...ng.com/page/65/

Yep. It was a very tricky forecast. The key was the amount of dry air in place that morning. When I saw dewpoints so low and temps around freezing with moisture pooling to the Southwest it was a pretty obvious call after that. But even I never thought the amounts would happen as they did. Great little system that turned into a big mess.