LithiaWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GFS to NAM 0Z NAM is colder at the end of it's run than the GFS was at the same time frame at 18Z. Don't mind me I'm bored lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 One thing to keep in mind, correct me if I wrong, but haven't the models busted on Temps (on the low side) ALL WINTER LONG? It seems to me that EVERYTIME a blowtorch is shown, it never verifies (or is rare to materialize). I guess I saying we should not worry too much about Temps, but overall track/placement of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 One thing to keep in mind, correct me if I wrong, but haven't the models busted on Temps (on the low side) ALL WINTER LONG? It seems to me that EVERYTIME a blowtorch is shown, it never verifies (or is rare to materialize). I guess I saying we should not worry too much about Temps, but overall track/placement of the low. looks like we're about to enter the most active part of Winter. The split flow remains to some degree, and the southerly storm tracks are at their southern most trajectory, both climo-wise and model shown, for the next couple of weeks. Nows definitely not the time to bail on a winter storm for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I was thinking the same think. I wouldn't take the models as truth until at least 48 hours out. Usually if it shows a big system more than that far in advance, it weakens. And sometimes the opposite is true, and it actually gets bigger on the models a day or two out. the last couple of years we got used to the trend being in "our" favor, ie colder and wetter usually. lately that has not been the case and most things are puttering out. i am with you on the models and getting to comfy in thinking we will see snow. even if its still showing up 48 hours out i am a little wary until its obs time (or close to it) to see the temps at or near freezing and drop and radar all lit up lol. side note: i cant believe we have a thread to discuss a possible storm!! its about time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 850s much colder on 00z GFS versus 12z @ 84 versus 96 hour. Not truly surprising given trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 0z GFS may be coming in a bit slower with the precip at 90 hours... EDIT: timiing definitely slower by 102... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 00z out to 108 is just a tad colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 @114 not looking good for moisture in the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This looks like a Tuesday morning/afternoon timeframe instead of a midnight to noon Tuesday timeframe shown on the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This run is very light with precip in the Carolinas...a tad colder but just not much there precip wise. On to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Another similar event occurred the very next year, Jan 17, 2008. It also had a very marginal temp setup. Charlotte reported surface winds out of the south for several hours leading up to precip start and during the first few hours of precip, before weak damming kicked in....snow for the first 4 hours, then freezing rain, then rain. several of the marginal events the last few years have turned out well here (except for one in march a couple of years ago) - the snow started just before dawn (i think 2 started as a rain/snow mix) and turned moderate to heavy quickly. the temps dropped below freezing, and stayed there, for most of the storms. whats odd is that usually the snows here end as freezing rain, but we really havent had more than .25 or more since dec 05. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Certainly the GFS snow output mimics the 12z Euro run somewhat at least in Arkansas. I wonder how raleighwx computes snow output? Goes over to rain anyways so it may be a mute point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 looks like we're about to enter the most active part of Winter. The split flow remains to some degree, and the southerly storm tracks are at their southern most trajectory, both climo-wise and model shown, for the next couple of weeks. Nows definitely not the time to bail on a winter storm for someone. Robert, Do you notice the CAD sigat 105 hrs? I looking for the HO supplying the cold filter down the east side of the APPS. Is this due to a MESO High? Or do you think the GFS may be overdoing it with evap cooling? Either way you slice it, someone in the SE will see snow AND we are in for a wild rode to end winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Euro is holding the strength of the wave (amplitude) longer as it tracks into TN compared to the GFS....so, that's key with respect to ultimately how much precip gets generated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GFS holds serve...except for WNC (much less QPF on this run). Precip just goes "poof" after GA. The QPF amount in this image is mostly snow across the far northern counties of GA. The cold air erodes rapidly but not until the "best" moisture has happened....at least for the far northern counties. This is so borderline any slight deviation and nothing but rain happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Here is Job Bastardi's take on this possible storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Here is Job Bastardi's take on this possible storm: Wow, left out TN almost completely. I guess JB thinks the WAA will be too much? I'm wondering the same thing. I keep seeing the snow output maps, but the boundary layer issues abound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 00z CMC looks nice. It pops a weak surface low over Pensacola at 108hrs. It’s a good bit colder than the 12z run. Precip is also moving in a little faster. The only downside is that there is less moisture for TN and KY. Northern AL,GA, and NW SC appear to do good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 00z CMC looks nice. It pops a weak surface low over Pensacola at 108hrs. It’s a good bit colder than the 12z run. Precip is also moving in a little faster. The only downside is that there is less moisture for TN and KY. Northern AL,GA, and NW SC appear to do good. Looks decent, but I'm not sure how anyone reads the black & white copy. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GFS and Canadian have trended weaker with the precip in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GFS and Canadian have trended weaker with the precip in NC Agreed, it all disappears when it reaches NC. Any met or anyone else know why the models are doing this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Agreed, it all disappears when it reaches NC. Any met or anyone else know why the models are doing this? That's what happens when you have another wave coming right on its heels. The trailing wave is coming into California at hr96 as our storm wave is moving out of Oklahoma toward the TN Valley, and that causes our wave to dampen out (weaken). Ideally instead you'd like to have substantial ridging behind our storm wave, without the trailing wave following so closely behind...that would allow the initial wave to amplify and dig to the southeast. Same type thing happened in the Jan 9-10 snow last winter...precip amounts were less and less as you moved from Arkansas to the Carolina coast. This will simply come down to how long the wave holds its amplitude as it moves east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 That's what happens when you have another wave coming right on its heels. The trailing wave is coming into California at hr96 as our storm wave is moving out of Oklahoma toward the TN Valley, and that causes our wave to dampen out (weaken). Ideally instead you'd like to have substantial ridging behind our storm wave, without the trailing wave following so closely behind...that would allow the initial wave to amplify and dig to the southeast. Same type thing happened in the Jan 9-10 snow last winter...precip amounts were less and less as you moved from Arkansas to the Carolina coast. This will simply come down to how long the wave holds its amplitude as it moves east. Ohh ok,Thanks for the explanation! So the low isn't going to get any stronger as it moves through? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Agreed, it all disappears when it reaches NC. Some nice images on that Canadian loop for N AR, TN, and portions of N GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Ohh ok,Thanks for the explanation! So the low isn't going to get any stronger as it moves through? It could trend a little stronger over the next few days, but there's no way it's going to trend much stronger with that trailing wave coming into California. With a marginal temp environment, it's a balancing act...you get a mega wave and you end up with too much warm air advection. A modest wave can still generate a good slug of precip (via overrunning), but you don't want to see the wave dampening out (weakening). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Don't have the paid Euro maps, but it looks like it is on par with the rest of the model runs tonight. Looks good to me for at least N AR and TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 It could trend a little stronger over the next few days, but there's no way it's going to trend much stronger with that trailing wave coming into California. With a marginal temp environment, it's a balancing act...you get a mega wave and you end up with too much warm air advection. A modest wave can still generate a good slug of precip (via overrunning), but you don't want to see the wave dampening out (weakening). Oh ok. Hopefully someone will get snow from this. I wouldn't mind just a flurry. 0Z Euro = NC Piedmont snow fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Don't have the paid Euro maps, but it looks like it is on par with the rest of the model runs tonight. Looks good to me for at least N AR and TN. 0z Euro kinda looks like the CMC. Keeps the SN to TN, N GA, N AL, WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yea here is the txt output for here in NW GA....Basically still looks like Snow to mix to cold light rain toward the end. Majority of the main precip falls in the wintry form IMO.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The 0z gfs is offering me .06 of precip Sat. Shoot, if it gets cold enough, I'll just see clouds At least it finds over a half inch on Tues. and much better later in the week, when it's nice and warm. I knew there would be more problems with the precip. than the cold. Feb. has been tripe for rain down here. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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