Valentine's day 2012 system

[MotoWeatherman]

Where did this table come from?

Link....

http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text2.htm

Can you get this for me for KDNN or a link? Thanks!

DNN

Station ID: KDNN Lat:   34.72 Long:   84.86                                                        
GFS Model Run: 12Z  9FEB 2012
 HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb  MSLP  TCC PRS WX  Low      Middle     High     Max    Min  Sfc Snowfall
               Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in.     Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp    mb    %  TEXT   Clouds    Clouds    Clouds    Tmp    Tmp  Vis    in 
  0 02/09 12Z   32     31     349       4    0.00  0.00    545    566   -0.8 -17.0 1026.9   0          CLR       CLR       CLR    ****   ****  1.5    0.0
  3 02/09 15Z   39     30      11       8    0.00  0.00    545    567    1.0 -17.1 1027.0  38          FEW       CLR    295SCT356   39     32 20.0    0.0
  6 02/09 18Z   47     30      12       4    0.00  0.00    546    567    1.2 -17.4 1025.0  30          FEW       CLR    287SCT352   47     32 20.0    0.0
  9 02/09 21Z   49     30     317       2    0.00  0.00    547    566    1.0 -17.8 1023.0  31          CLR       CLR    287SCT358   49     47 20.0    0.0
 12 02/10 00Z   35     30     323       2    0.00  0.00    547    566    0.9 -18.3 1023.2  32          CLR       CLR    261SCT356   49     35 20.0    0.0
 15 02/10 03Z   33     29      20       1    0.00  0.00    547    566    0.7 -18.3 1023.8  14          CLR       CLR    311FEW360   35     33 20.0    0.0
 18 02/10 06Z   34     29     356       2    0.00  0.00    547    566    0.8 -18.0 1023.5  46          CLR       CLR    300SCT376   35     33 20.0    0.0
 21 02/10 09Z   33     29     133       2    0.00  0.00    547    565    2.5 -19.2 1021.9  91          CLR       CLR    284BKN369   34     33 20.0    0.0
 24 02/10 12Z   36     29     157       3    0.00  0.00    546    563    1.4 -19.0 1021.4  95          CLR    201FEW233 259BKN363   36     33 20.0    0.0
 27 02/10 15Z   44     34     155       4    0.00  0.00    545    562    1.3 -18.2 1021.3  99 -RA      CLR    153BKN233 233OVC353   44     36 20.0    0.0
 30 02/10 18Z   47     37     193       6    0.01  0.00    544    560    1.2 -18.0 1019.5  99 -RA   098FEW118 138BKN221 244OVC345   49     36 20.0    0.0
 33 02/10 21Z   48     37     228       6    0.01  0.00    544    558   -0.1 -18.8 1016.4  95 -RA   095SCT118 132BKN196 262BKN339   48     46 20.0    0.0
 36 02/11 00Z   41     38     252       4    0.05  0.00    542    556   -2.2 -18.9 1017.3  97 -RA   082BKN116 130BKN210 244BKN331   48     41  2.7    0.0
 39 02/11 03Z   38     36     277       5    0.01  0.00    539    554   -2.6 -22.1 1017.9  99 -RA   059SCT113 146OVC230 230OVC305   41     38  2.1    0.0
 42 02/11 06Z   34     32     294       4    0.00  0.00    539    552   -1.9 -22.0 1016.7  70 -RA   059FEW112 154BKN229 229BKN298   41     34  0.8    0.0
 45 02/11 09Z   32     31     308       5    0.00  0.00    539    552   -2.2 -20.3 1015.6   8          FEW       CLR       CLR      34     32  2.2    0.0
 48 02/11 12Z   36     35     309      10    0.00  0.00    537    551   -5.0 -19.7 1017.5  36 -RA   028SCT049    CLR       CLR      36     32  0.5    0.0
 51 02/11 15Z   31     24     336      18    0.00  0.00    535    552   -6.0 -19.1 1020.3  47 -SN   033SCT047    CLR       CLR      36     31  7.1    0.0
 54 02/11 18Z   32     20     340      18    0.00  0.00    533    550   -9.1 -18.5 1021.3  45 -SN   030SCT042    CLR       CLR      36     30 20.0    0.0
 57 02/11 21Z   30     15     343      18    0.00  0.00    529    547  -12.4 -18.7 1022.3   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      32     30 20.0    0.0
 60 02/12 00Z   22     12     348      14    0.00  0.00    525    546  -13.8 -18.8 1026.5   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      32     22 20.0    0.0
 63 02/12 03Z   19     10     356      12    0.00  0.00    525    547  -13.2 -19.5 1028.7   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      22     19 20.0    0.0
 66 02/12 06Z   19     13     350      11    0.00  0.00    526    548  -10.3 -19.7 1029.1   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      22     19 20.0    0.0
 69 02/12 09Z   19     13     349      11    0.00  0.00    529    551   -8.2 -20.2 1029.2   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      19     19 15.4    0.0
 72 02/12 12Z   18     10     348       9    0.00  0.00    531    555   -8.1 -20.8 1031.0   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      19     18 20.0    0.0
 75 02/12 15Z   24      3     355      10    0.00  0.00    533    558   -7.6 -20.3 1032.3   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      24     18 20.0    0.0
 78 02/12 18Z   33      4     351       9    0.00  0.00    535    559   -6.6 -19.5 1030.1   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      33     18 20.0    0.0
 81 02/12 21Z   36      7     351      10    0.00  0.00    538    560   -4.6 -17.7 1027.6   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      36     33 20.0    0.0
 84 02/13 00Z   28     10       4       7    0.00  0.00    540    562   -2.5 -17.6 1027.5   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      36     28 20.0    0.0
 87 02/13 03Z   25     10      10       5    0.00  0.00    542    564   -1.2 -17.2 1027.7   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      28     25 20.0    0.0
 90 02/13 06Z   23      9      14       3    0.00  0.00    542    563   -1.5 -17.1 1026.5   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      28     23 20.0    0.0
 93 02/13 09Z   22      8      18       2    0.00  0.00    542    562   -1.3 -17.3 1025.1   1          CLR       CLR    256FEW276   23     22 20.0    0.0
 96 02/13 12Z   23      8       9       1    0.00  0.00    542    562   -1.2 -17.7 1025.1  27          CLR    208FEW232 250SCT284   23     22 20.0    0.0
 99 02/13 15Z   34      8     224       1    0.00  0.00    542    562   -1.1 -18.0 1025.4  77          CLR    161BKN225 234SCT272   34     24 20.0    0.0
102 02/13 18Z   41     11     185       4    0.00  0.00    543    561   -0.3 -18.0 1021.7  71          FEW    140BKN214 233SCT271   41     24 20.0    0.0
105 02/13 21Z   45     17     204       6    0.00  0.00    543    559    0.3 -18.8 1018.9  53 -SN   094SCT118 137FEW166 269FEW335   45     41 20.0    0.0
108 02/14 00Z   35     18     198       4    0.00  0.00    543    559   -0.6 -19.3 1020.0  74 -SN   088SCT118 123FEW200 243BKN323   45     35 20.0    0.0
111 02/14 03Z   36     21     143       6    0.01  0.00    543    559   -0.5 -19.6 1020.0  92 -RA   084SCT118 121BKN220 231BKN319   37     35 20.0    0.0
114 02/14 06Z   34     25     145       6    0.03  0.00    543    557   -2.1 -19.6 1018.6  96 -SN   075SCT116 124BKN226 231BKN319   37     34 20.0    0.0
117 02/14 09Z   33     29     124       7    0.13  0.00    543    557    0.5 -20.0 1016.7  99 -RA   045BKN118 120BKN227 231BKN305   34     33 11.1    0.3
120 02/14 12Z   34     32     113       6    0.23  0.00    542    556    1.4 -21.8 1016.6 100 RA    039BKN118 119OVC217 231BKN295   34     33  0.5    0.0

[Jon]

I thought the Christmas storm ended up being weaker than progged. Didn't the Euro at one point show a bomb? If your post is right then I stand corrected. But in general I have seen totals decrease as time goes on. It's not a scientific thing it's just the feel I get from the models usually when we are looking at a storm.

On my cell so I don't have the pic, but it was 984mb just off hatteras inside 200hrs if I'm not mistaken amounting to 12"+ totals for NC

[Cold Rain]

The Christmas storm was shown on the models more than 5 days out, vanished and came back. The Euro had it bombing out at one point, but it did end up weaker than that prog.

This is a different setup entirely, though. Then, we had a nice HP moving in from the west. Now, we have a HP sliding out east and we're having to hope that the precip moves in before the cold air exits. Usually, you want to see the cold front come through before or coincident with the storm development...unless you have a strong phasing situation, which is another story altogether.

[Bevo]

I thought the Christmas storm ended up being weaker than progged. Didn't the Euro at one point show a bomb? If your post is right then I stand corrected. But in general I have seen totals decrease as time goes on. It's not a scientific thing it's just the feel I get from the models usually when we are looking at a storm.

I believe that was the case, although it came back in better than it looked 4 days out from the event (for northern upstate SC anyway) and turned out well for us.

My thought was more with last January 10-11. I realize it looked good from the gate, however, I do remember it waffling for a few days closing in toward 72 hrs out. Then, from around 48-36 hrs out, it was beginning to show some magnitude again (GSP held the advisory in their pocket to the bitter end though). Then *smack* - my back yard was sitting under 9 inches of snow with - quite literally - icing on top.

I suppose it could be argued that the ending of ZR was a negative trend.

[jmundie]

The Christmas storm was shown on the models more than 5 days out, vanished and came back. The Euro had it bombing out at one point, but it did end up weaker than that prog.

This is a different setup entirely, though. Then, we had a nice HP moving in from the west. Now, we have a HP sliding out east and we're having to hope that the precip moves in before the cold air exits. Usually, you want to see the cold front come through before or coincident with the storm development...unless you have a strong phasing situation, which is another story altogether.

On the euro at least, there is a reinforcing cold shot coming in behind this system. That's a new development as far as I can tell. Drops 850s down to around -7 at BNA. I think the models may be missing something here... euro is really gung ho on this snow (its missed a lot of light accums in the mid south this year) yet this one its been on it like white on rice. Maybe a piece of the PV ends up getting left back in the plains and kinda follows this shortwave?

[ams30721us]

Link....

http://www.wxcaster....odels_text2.htm

Thanks!

[Brick Tamland]

The Christmas storm was shown on the models more than 5 days out, vanished and came back. The Euro had it bombing out at one point, but it did end up weaker than that prog.

This is a different setup entirely, though. Then, we had a nice HP moving in from the west. Now, we have a HP sliding out east and we're having to hope that the precip moves in before the cold air exits. Usually, you want to see the cold front come through before or coincident with the storm development...unless you have a strong phasing situation, which is another story altogether.

On the euro at least, there is a reinforcing cold shot coming in behind this system. That's a new development as far as I can tell. Drops 850s down to around -7 at BNA. I think the models may be missing something here... euro is really gung ho on this snow (its missed a lot of light accums in the mid south this year) yet this one its been on it like white on rice. Maybe a piece of the PV ends up getting left back in the plains and kinda follows this shortwave?

Any chance it could be like yesterday, where the high was supposed to be 55 and just a couple of showers? Instead, it seemed the showers can earlier and the temp was a lot colder than predicted. There was even some sleet reported here.

[Gastonwxman]

I thought the Christmas storm ended up being weaker than progged. Didn't the Euro at one point show a bomb? If your post is right then I stand corrected. But in general I have seen totals decrease as time goes on. It's not a scientific thing it's just the feel I get from the models usually when we are looking at a storm.

It may not be the same period that Jon mentioned, but he and Cold Rain are correct that it did at one point show this system bombing off especially after it departed from NC. Here's the image. Hopefully it was okay to post an old SV image since this was all I could find:

[calculus1]

Okay, I stand corrected on the bomb of a storm. I never said it didn't show anything stronger at any point, but it was gone in the 5-day period and then the GFS really began ramping up the totals the day before it hit. Mainstream media was really downplaying the event in the 2 days before it hit, until we woke up on Christmas morning with a nice surprise!

[msuwx]

If anybody wants to take a stroll down memory lane regarding how the models were behaving leading up to the Christmas 2010 storm, you can check out my discussion and videos from that week. Here you go!

http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/2010_12_19_archive.html

The bottom post on that page is for 12/19/2010....top post is early Christmas morning.

Okay, I stand corrected on the bomb of a storm. I never said it didn't show anything stronger at any point, but it was gone in the 5-day period and then the GFS really began ramping up the totals the day before it hit. Mainstream media was really downplaying the event in the 2 days before it hit, until we woke up on Christmas morning with a nice surprise!

[sctvman]

Brad Panovich's GFS link just posted on Twitter of possible snow Tuesday. Still a ways off.

http://twitpic.com/8hql8t

[burrel2]

This storm reminds me of the February 1, 2007 event. It was a front end thump imby with out any sort of high pressure locking in cold air. Wetbulbing and residual cold air was enough to drop 2.75 inches at my house from that storm before it switched over to rain.

[Jenny Marie Photo]

I like that image a lot

Brad Panovich's GFS link just posted on Twitter of possible snow Tuesday. Still a ways off.

http://twitpic.com/8hql8t

[Brick Tamland]

Brad Panovich's GFS link just posted on Twitter of possible snow Tuesday. Still a ways off.

http://twitpic.com/8hql8t

I guess it's something. Need to bring it a tad east.

[valkhorn]

Morristown is playing it conservatively, as usual:

Area forecast discussion

National Weather Service Morristown Tennessee

308 PM EST Thursday Feb 9 2012

Short term (tonight through Saturday night)...surface high pressure

remains over the areas tonight. Mostly clear skies with temperatures

at or below normal. Surface high pressure shifts east on Friday. A

middle level short wave approaches from the SW. Cloud cover increases

and lowers through the day. Patches of rain will advance into the

area by late afternoon. The freezing level at the beginning of the

precipitation event will be between 3500 to 4000 feet. The short

wave will move quickly east across the southern part of the mrx County Warning Area.

A strong upper jet will quickly follow from the northwest. The freezing

level will lower Friday night and the rain will change to mostly

snow by Saturday morning. The temperature profile is becoming

favorable for light accumulations in the northern and Central Valley

by Saturday morning. The available moisture...especially in the snow

growth region is marginal and questionable at this time. Confidence

is rising for a requirement for a Snow Advisory across SW Virginia and the

central and northeast mountains of Tennessee Friday night into

Saturday. Strong cold air advection on Saturday will keep

temperatures well below normal. Upslope and scattered instability

snow showers will persist much of the day but limited moisture will

hold down significant accumulations. 850 mb temperatures will range from -10

to -15c and surface temperatures in the teens will be common Sunday

morning.

Long term (sunday through thursday)...high pressure building the

region bringing dry weather for Sunday and Monday. A front is

expecting to move into the area on Monday night and Tuesday. Will

keep the low probability of precipitation going. May see snow on Monday night and Tuesday

morning morning with the best chance for snow accumulation across

the higher elevation. Will go with a dry forecast for Wednesday for

now. Another front enters the area on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Will add chance probability of precipitation for rain. It should be warm enough for all

rain. Stayed near mex/HPC guidance for temperatures.

------------------------------------

They're calling for up to 1" of snow tomorrow night in the central valley, and a few days ago they had us at 30% or less of rain only. They'll probably up the chances for precip and the potential for snow but only after Saturday.

[SN_Lover]

12z gfs ensembles don't look all that impressive, temperature wise. i have noticed on the OP run that the energy associated with this system is very weak, even with a phase. I expect if snow was to come out of this, that it would not exceed advisory criteria.

But things can change, the spaghetti maps deviate greatly after hour 42,

[BrierCreekWx]

This storm reminds me of the February 1, 2007 event. It was a front end thump imby with out any sort of high pressure locking in cold air. Wetbulbing and residual cold air was enough to drop 2.75 inches at my house from that storm before it switched over to rain.

Just from quickly looking at the data today, I was actually already thinking about that storm as a potential analog. Big concern is that any insitu-cad is going to be difficult to set up if the precip doesn't move in quick, as the 1000-850mb level is warming up rapidly with the southerly flow between the weak low and the offshore high.

[FallsLake]

RAH is keeping an eye on next week. Afternoon discussion (partial of Long Range Section):

..... INTERESTINGLY... PARTIAL

THICKNESSES FROM THE 12Z GFS AND THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF AS WELL AS GFS

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS THE

NORTHERN CWA. GIVEN THE COLD AIR IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AND

SATURATION WELL UP TO -20C... CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MID LEVEL

THICKNESSES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT. THE

QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY AIR HOLDS OVER NORTHERN

NC ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF NEW ENGLAND AND

NOSING TO THE SW IN A WEDGE-LIKE FASHION INTO THE NRN PIEDMONT.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AVAILABILITY OF LOW LEVEL

COLD/DRY AIR THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WITH THE PARENT HIGH CENTERED SO

FAR AWAY... WILL KEEP THE PRECIP ALL LIQUID FOR NOW... BUT THIS

EVENT CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

WILL END RAIN CHANCES WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TOP-DOWN

DRYING AS THE WAVE EXITS. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF THE CAROLINA

COAST AND DEEPENS WHILE DEPARTING TO THE NE... THE RESULTANT LIGHT

NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP

LOW CLOUDS IN THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. LOWS IN THE MID

30S.

[griteater]

This storm reminds me of the February 1, 2007 event. It was a front end thump imby with out any sort of high pressure locking in cold air. Wetbulbing and residual cold air was enough to drop 2.75 inches at my house from that storm before it switched over to rain.

Just from quickly looking at the data today, I was actually already thinking about that storm as a potential analog. Big concern is that any insitu-cad is going to be difficult to set up if the precip doesn't move in quick, as the 1000-850mb level is warming up rapidly with the southerly flow between the weak low and the offshore high.

That's a great analog for this storm. Usually, surface winds out of the south leading up to precip arrival is a no-go for snow in these parts...but it can happen on rare occasion.

The track of our wave on the modeling has taken a noticeable trend south over the past day (more suppressed). Before, the core of the wave was tracking through Kansas, and now it is tracking through Oklahoma. Also, there is additional vort energy dropping into the backside of the wave, down into TX, so the wave is not weakening as quick as it moves east. The wave is going from slightly positive tilt to slightly negative tilt through the lower MS Valley - and you can see the 700mb RH expand during that time.

Looking at the RH and wet-bulb temps on the GFS forecasted soundings, I estimate 0.26 snow (liquid equiv) at Asheville and 0.09 at Charlotte. There is deep moisture as the precip gets going, with high RH extending up to 350mb.

We'll have to see how this trends in terms of how long the stale, cold air mass can hang around....and how strong and how far south our wave tracks....but I could see this easily trending to a 3-6 inch snow for the mtns.

[oconeexman]

This storm reminds me of the February 1, 2007 event. It was a front end thump imby with out any sort of high pressure locking in cold air. Wetbulbing and residual cold air was enough to drop 2.75 inches at my house from that storm before it switched over to rain.

Remember it well burrel! I'd take a repeat of that in a minute with a touch more cold locking in this time. I think we ended up with a touch over 3" over here, that would be a blizzard at this point to most of us.

[burgertime]

18z looks colder on this go round. I'm sick though so my eyes could be playing tricks on me.

[griteater]

The UKMet and Euro are slightly more amped with the wave as it moves into California (compared to the GFS and Canadian). Here's the UKMet...

[burgertime]

Just checked the 12z @120 the 18z is colder than the 12z @126 with our 850's...surface still warm though.

[burgertime]

18z

[beanskip]

Huge BL issues with this system.

[burgertime]

Huge BL issues with this system.

Yep...but I think all of us will take our chances.

[oconeexman]

Yep...but I think all of us will take our chances.

Buries Highlands, Cashiers and WCU! A pretty good system to track imo, could get a lot better if it rolls in earlier as many have done before. A lot of time for specifics to be worked out.

[NavarreDon]

Buries Highlands, Cashiers and WCU! A pretty good system to track imo, could get a lot better if it rolls in earlier as many have done before. A lot of time for specifics to be worked out.

Seems like a really good look for the central & southern mnts. Def. something to get the juices flowing. As you said still a lot of ifs and buts....with all the ten days teases this year. When the models show something this close. I start to feel like a gun shy dog at a plantation quail hunt!

[jmundie]

No one mentioned this but a couple of the 12z ensemble members dump up to 8 inches in middle and east Tennessee.

[AcworthWx]

GFS soundings are too warm for mby just NW of ATL Unless this trends colder, which with the setup seems unlikely, this will be a mountain event for Georgia with perhaps the exception being NE sections outside the mountains. If I were in mid-north TN or the NC mountains I'd be a happy camper with what the CMC, Euro, and GFS are showing. Areas in between; extreme N. GA/AL and southern TN it's a borderline deal that could go either way quite easily imo. As for NC the system looks to weaken as it moves east so I have much less confidence in what they will get out of this. This is all verbatim off the 12Z suite and much can change in five days. I have seen this before and my fear is things trend warmer not cooler. I mean really when was the last time we had a storm five days out that trended towards more snow?

Using Moto's link, (Thanks again for the link, Moto ) here's what we(KRYY) are looking at on the 12z run. As the moisture comes in the DP starts rising and the wind direction isn't going to help matters either.

GFS_KRYY.txt