Thrasher Fan Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Dew points still sitting in the high teens to low 20s across most of NGa. It will take nearly the entire system for the air to saturate and have moisture reach the ground. Not sure that's going to happen before WAA takes over. Should an OBS thread be created or since this is affecting so few board followers we should keep everything in this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Should an OBS thread be created or since this is affecting so few board followers we should keep everything in this thread? Can't we just keep it here? After tonight, this thread is dead anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Well that sucks about you not being here. I don't know if anyone will get 2 inches or not (save higher elevations...although 850mb temps/warm advection doesn't really show them having any better shot of snow than lower elevations) but the 12z nam is certainly encouraging for a quick hit of snow/sleet..and composite radar is impressive. Maybe 2 inches isn't out of the question but I would say an inch is possible across virtually anywhere in north ga. Still not sure about any freezing rain, except areas around the 925mb level. But temps/wetbulbs are very close to supporting it so if the models are off by just a little, we will get a little bit before going over to rain. You really think an inch is possible across virtually all of north ga ? There's not even any frozen precip in the forecast for the entire metro Atlanta area. ALL RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Just keep the obs here and add it to the title of the thread. I will be staying up to see if anything good happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Can't we just keep it here? After tonight, this thread is dead anyway. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx n of atl Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I will be watching FFC new dual-polarization radar see how it responds to rain, sleet and /or snow! Or just all rain... whatever happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Here's what Steve Nelson told me about the dual pol so far.... "The dual-pol retrofit is working great. We've had two events where a TDS (Tornado Debris Signature) has been seen. On 12/22/11, we saw 3 tornadoes (2 EF0 and 1 EF1) near KFFC, all 3 had a TDS. On 1/21/12, we saw another EF1 tornado in Coweta county near the Newnan-Coweta Airport and it too had a TDS. We've had almost no winter weather, so we've not had the opportunity to see how well the dual pol data does distinguishing hydrometeor types." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Has anyone looked at simulated radar vs. reality right now? Is she right on time? early? late? I looked at the simulated radar this morning but have been too busy to compare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Has anyone looked at simulated radar vs. reality right now? Is she right on time? early? late? I looked at the simulated radar this morning but have been too busy to compare. I think precip is ahead of schedule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I know this was not supposed to be much of an event in the upstate sc region to begin with,but was looking forward to some flurries or sleet pellets,but today was the worse case scenario with not a cloud in the sky during maximum heating time and now they are rolling in to keep all the warmth in,bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 FFC lowered their snow over to rain line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The GFS Bufkit from 12z does look a little different for the CAE area although not by much. This is all going to depend on how heavy the initial rates are/timing to see any flakes. I'm leaning towards sleet pellets (little if any) at most currently for this area. Here's the MOS Guidance also for SC. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/state/SC.AVN.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 We've been having sleet and snow here in Memphis, but it's way too warm for anything to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 You really think an inch is possible across virtually all of north ga ? There's not even any frozen precip in the forecast for the entire metro Atlanta area. ALL RAIN. lol...yes sir, I'm going to hedge my bets on ffc. Ugh..i hate posts like this..i really do. You must not have much knowledge of their track record. That said, they might be right for atlanta..if surface temps in atlanta don't cool enough, they might indeed be right and get all rain. The best bet for any winter precip is north and east of atlanta due to later onset and less cloud cover early on, sorry. Second, I didn't say everyone would see an inch. I said an inch max is possible somewhere. This is the aggrivation in forecasting totals because when you mention them, people don't grasp that the said person isn't necessarily talking about their backyard..yet they assume you are talking about everyone. Ugh.. That said,Where that happens is too soon to say..that's a nowcast situation and it could be a very small area. (The poster NeGA who sits at 1500 feet elevation and the mountains are most likely)..soundings in this area support that idea. Otherwise, Most will most likely just see a rain/sleet/snow mixture before going to rain. Accumulations won't be much and will be spotty but somewhere..as is usual, could see a burst of snow with the initial precip outside the higher elevations. A few things that make this possible. First is timing. It comes in late enough that radiational cooling/nocturnal cooling will help out...especially east and north of atlanta. Second, as is usual in these situations (as has been pointed out by not only me, but others including gsp), usually precip arrives a bit earlier than forecast...a 'finger" of precip normally develops in these waa advection time situations. That is what helped give me and a lot of others last year so much snow..a pre-main precip band that dumped a lot of snow before the main area of snow got here. If the nam is right (and even the gfs), precip should come it fairly quickly and hard. There is a small chance the rather intense precip could slightly delay the initial surge of plus freezing temps in the mid levels long enough to allow an hour or so of decent snow/sleet. The waa is very stout though so it won't last long if it occurs. However, evaporational cooling (850mb wetbulbs around -3 to as low as -5c depending on which run/model you choose) should at the very least give most a chance of snow/sleet or a mix of snow/sleet/rain before going to rain. I'm not sure why I've taken so much time to address a rather weenie post but I want to make clear I do *not* think everyone will see an inch, or even close to it. There is only a *chance* somewhere could get lucky and get actual accumulations that much...elevations at or above 1500 feet being the most likely. Regardless, it's not in any way a big deal...in fact it's laughable compared to last year and it will be washed away quickly in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Dew points still running in the upper teens and low 20s across NGa. Thin layer of high clouds streaming into the state. Will be interesting to see how quick the temps can drop before the ceilings come down. Obviously the further east the more temps will drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 lol...yes sir, I'm going to hedge my bets on ffc. Ugh..i hate posts like this..i really do. You must not have much knowledge of their track record. That said, they might be right for atlanta..if surface temps in atlanta don't cool enough, they might indeed be right and get all rain. The best bet for any winter precip is north and east of atlanta due to later onset and less cloud cover early on, sorry. Second, I didn't say everyone would see an inch. I said an inch max is possible somewhere. This is the aggrivation in forecasting totals because when you mention them, people don't grasp that the said person isn't necessarily talking about their backyard..yet they assume you are talking about everyone. Ugh.. That said,Where that happens is too soon to say..that's a nowcast situation and it could be a very small area. (The poster NeGA who sits at 1500 feet elevation and the mountains are most likely)..soundings in this area support that idea. Otherwise, Most will most likely just see a rain/sleet/snow mixture before going to rain. Accumulations won't be much and will be spotty but somewhere..as is usual, could see a burst of snow with the initial precip outside the higher elevations. A few things that make this possible. First is timing. It comes in late enough that radiational cooling/nocturnal cooling will help out...especially east and north of atlanta. Second, as is usual in these situations (as has been pointed out by not only me, but others including gsp), usually precip arrives a bit earlier than forecast...a 'finger" of precip normally develops in these waa advection time situations. That is what helped give me and a lot of others last year so much snow..a pre-main precip band that dumped a lot of snow before the main area of snow got here. If the nam is right (and even the gfs), precip should come it fairly quickly and hard. There is a small chance the rather intense precip could slightly delay the initial surge of plus freezing temps in the mid levels long enough to allow an hour or so of decent snow/sleet. The waa is very stout though so it won't last long if it occurs. However, evaporational cooling (850mb wetbulbs around -3 to as low as -5c depending on which run/model you choose) should at the very least give most a chance of snow/sleet or a mix of snow/sleet/rain before going to rain. I'm not sure why I've taken so much time to address a rather weenie post but I want to make clear I do *not* think everyone will see an inch, or even close to it. There is only a *chance* somewhere could get lucky and get actual accumulations that much...elevations at or above 1500 feet being the most likely. Regardless, it's not in any way a big deal...in fact it's laughable compared to last year and it will be washed away quickly in a few hours. Dang I missed this over this lovely winter..lol. Very good explanation and layout, hopefully most will get something to wet the appetite, no doubt NeGa gets an inch or two in my mind!! I can already see his pictures and everybody saying how lucky he is...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I hit 52 today with a DP still of 13.. Man that's some dry air... This has mainly sleet onset written all over it imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yes, I agree. Sleet was common in Alabama when the rain rolled in this afternoon, even at 50 degrees. Maybe a brief start as sleet around metro Atlanta and then over to a nice cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Good luck to all of you that are getting/will get something! I will enjoy my cloudy skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Dang I missed this over this lovely winter..lol. Very good explanation and layout, hopefully most will get something to wet the appetite, no doubt NeGa gets an inch or two in my mind!! I can already see his pictures and everybody saying how lucky he is...lol I'll be sure to take some too.. Have my camera ready to go, just in case we do see something here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Here is my 18z NAM sounding at 7am Tuesday morning. At this point according to the 18z NAM i have already had .07 inches of liquid fall. I would assume that all of that should be snow based on this sounding. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 168 SFC 991 242 1.8 0.9 94 0.9 1.4 233 5 275.7 276.4 275.0 286.9 4.13 2 950 580 0.1 0.0 99 0.1 0.1 233 15 277.3 278.0 275.8 288.4 4.03 3 900 1013 -0.4 -0.4 100 0.0 -0.4 223 23 281.1 281.8 277.9 292.6 4.12 4 850 1471 0.1 -0.0 99 0.1 0.1 249 25 286.3 287.1 280.9 299.0 4.50 5 800 1957 0.1 -0.1 99 0.2 0.0 252 25 291.3 292.1 283.4 305.0 4.76 6 750 2473 -1.7 -1.8 99 0.1 -1.7 251 24 294.8 295.6 284.5 307.9 4.46 7 700 3020 -4.6 -5.1 97 0.4 -4.8 256 29 297.4 298.0 284.8 308.6 3.74 8 650 3600 -7.8 -8.5 95 0.7 -8.1 255 36 300.1 300.7 285.2 309.6 3.10 9 600 4218 -11.8 -13.0 91 1.2 -12.2 263 35 302.5 302.9 285.2 309.8 2.35 10 550 4881 -15.0 -16.4 89 1.5 -15.4 251 55 306.3 306.7 286.2 312.5 1.93 11 500 5594 -19.9 -26.9 54 7.0 -21.3 247 68 308.8 308.9 285.9 311.6 0.84 12 450 6367 -25.7 -34.8 42 9.1 -26.9 251 69 311.0 311.1 286.2 312.5 0.44 13 400 7207 -33.1 -39.6 53 6.4 -33.8 251 67 311.9 312.0 286.4 313.0 0.31 14 350 8129 -40.7 -51.4 31 10.7 -41.2 262 76 313.9 313.9 286.8 314.3 0.10 15 300 9167 -45.5 -66.8 7 21.2 -46.0 270 92 321.2 321.2 289.1 321.2 0.02 16 250 10366 -50.5 273 103 331.0 17 200 11813 -52.0 271 103 350.4 18 150 13660 -56.6 272 95 372.6 19 100 16164 -66.7 271 71 398.9 TRP 0 WND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I'll be sure to take some too.. Have my camera ready to go, just in case we do see something here. You are in one of the more optimum spots for this event, good luck. I'm looking forward to some pics later on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Dang I missed this over this lovely winter..lol. Very good explanation and layout, hopefully most will get something to wet the appetite, no doubt NeGa gets an inch or two in my mind!! I can already see his pictures and everybody saying how lucky he is...lol i hope i am lucky but as lookout said its nowcast time and i am not expecting much. unlike the last two years, i have seen a FEW flurries a couple of times and thats it. i am honestly hoping to at least get a dusting and whiten things up. once i see the precip on radar and can check the temps and dewpoints hopefully things will be looking good for at least some frozen precip. sad that this is our only real chance so far this year and we are tracking a system that may give a few areas an inch of snow its 45 with a dewpoint of 15 so fingers are crossed. clouds are moving in so just hope the temp can drop enough that some evap cooling does its job I'll be sure to take some too.. Have my camera ready to go, just in case we do see something here. actually you are in a better location than i am so you stand a better chance of snow since you are a farther ne (whats your elevation?) there have been times i have been getting sleet or ice and clayton is getting snow. i would love to see snow, but honestly havent seen any good sleet or freezing rain in a while so i would be happy to get anything, esp at this point lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Our local meteorologist in Charleston (Bill Walsh) was throwing in a small chance of snow flurries inland north of Charleston with no accumulation at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Here is my 18z NAM sounding at 7am Tuesday morning. At this point according to the 18z NAM i have already had .07 inches of liquid fall. I would assume that all of that should be snow based on this sounding. You still in Clemson? Im liking at least from walhalla up to get a dusting to an inch..maybe 2 towards Lombards and of course Catshead! -------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 168 SFC 991 242 1.8 0.9 94 0.9 1.4 233 5 275.7 276.4 275.0 286.9 4.13 2 950 580 0.1 0.0 99 0.1 0.1 233 15 277.3 278.0 275.8 288.4 4.03 3 900 1013 -0.4 -0.4 100 0.0 -0.4 223 23 281.1 281.8 277.9 292.6 4.12 4 850 1471 0.1 -0.0 99 0.1 0.1 249 25 286.3 287.1 280.9 299.0 4.50 5 800 1957 0.1 -0.1 99 0.2 0.0 252 25 291.3 292.1 283.4 305.0 4.76 6 750 2473 -1.7 -1.8 99 0.1 -1.7 251 24 294.8 295.6 284.5 307.9 4.46 7 700 3020 -4.6 -5.1 97 0.4 -4.8 256 29 297.4 298.0 284.8 308.6 3.74 8 650 3600 -7.8 -8.5 95 0.7 -8.1 255 36 300.1 300.7 285.2 309.6 3.10 9 600 4218 -11.8 -13.0 91 1.2 -12.2 263 35 302.5 302.9 285.2 309.8 2.35 10 550 4881 -15.0 -16.4 89 1.5 -15.4 251 55 306.3 306.7 286.2 312.5 1.93 11 500 5594 -19.9 -26.9 54 7.0 -21.3 247 68 308.8 308.9 285.9 311.6 0.84 12 450 6367 -25.7 -34.8 42 9.1 -26.9 251 69 311.0 311.1 286.2 312.5 0.44 13 400 7207 -33.1 -39.6 53 6.4 -33.8 251 67 311.9 312.0 286.4 313.0 0.31 14 350 8129 -40.7 -51.4 31 10.7 -41.2 262 76 313.9 313.9 286.8 314.3 0.10 15 300 9167 -45.5 -66.8 7 21.2 -46.0 270 92 321.2 321.2 289.1 321.2 0.02 16 250 10366 -50.5 273 103 331.0 17 200 11813 -52.0 271 103 350.4 18 150 13660 -56.6 272 95 372.6 19 100 16164 -66.7 271 71 398.9 TRP 0 WND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I think a light dusting is possible; especially in western Oconee County. I’m not counting on it here though. I’m just hoping to be able to see some decent flakes fly early tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 You are in one of the more optimum spots for this event, good luck. I'm looking forward to some pics later on! Will make sure I get some good ones for ya Marietta~ i hope i am lucky but as lookout said its nowcast time and i am not expecting much. unlike the last two years, i have seen a FEW flurries a couple of times and thats it. i am honestly hoping to at least get a dusting and whiten things up. once i see the precip on radar and can check the temps and dewpoints hopefully things will be looking good for at least some frozen precip. sad that this is our only real chance so far this year and we are tracking a system that may give a few areas an inch of snow its 45 with a dewpoint of 15 so fingers are crossed. clouds are moving in so just hope the temp can drop enough that some evap cooling does its job actually you are in a better location than i am so you stand a better chance of snow since you are a farther ne (whats your elevation?) there have been times i have been getting sleet or ice and clayton is getting snow. i would love to see snow, but honestly havent seen any good sleet or freezing rain in a while so i would be happy to get anything, esp at this point lol My elevation is 1963 at my house to 2000 at the top of our hill...so hopefully we'll see something. Will be hoping you get some! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 With High Pressure nearby tomorrow night, I'm interested to see if some of us folks here in the NC Piedmont might get some freezing drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I still have a dew point of 13 I hope there is enough rain to actually get some to the ground, lol. Got a couple of bands headed this way..it'll be interesting later on. I said late in Jan. I thought the first frozen event I'd get in Feb. would be sleet or zrain. It may not be this one, but I'll hold to that thought for now. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I still have a dew point of 13 I hope there is enough rain to actually get some to the ground, lol. Got a couple of bands headed this way..it'll be interesting later on. I said late in Jan. I thought the first frozen event I'd get in Feb. would be sleet or zrain. It may not be this one, but I'll hold to that thought for now. T Tony! I have thought about you all day as the sleet reports have been rolling in. Maybe you will get some sleet out of this dang thing and the winter won't be a complete waste. It's not much but it beats the 90's we'll have in a few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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