ams30721us Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Dewpoints in the teens well down into South GA this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Deep moisture approaching South and West of Little Rock to the Mississippi Border moving ENE. Surface Obs would indicate this is where Precip is reaching the ground and back to the SW... And right on cue with the update after radar check: Little Rock, Adams Field 06:53 Light Snow 33 18 54 S 9 30.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 how is it only the southwest mtns of nc are in a winter weather adv.? why isn't the rest of the nc mtns. under a winter weather adv. or are they waiting until this afternoon to get a better look at the system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 how is it only the southwest mtns of nc are in a winter weather adv.? why isn't the rest of the nc mtns. under a winter weather adv. or are they waiting until this afternoon to get a better look at the system? can't believe if some of the mtns are under adv. for slick roads in the morning all of the mtns i would think would have slick roads tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david30 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Confirming sleet showers in MW MS Greenville/Cleveland area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Next up should be West Central Mississippi. I expect to get reports from the Greenville,MS area with the next update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Confirming sleet showers in MW MS Greenville/Cleveland area Oops look like we got the report while I was posting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david30 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Was just posting about it in the above post actually sticking to roofs cars here in cleveland right north of greenville Next up should be West Central Mississippi. I expect to get reports from the Greenville,MS area with the next update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Was just posting about it in the above post actually sticking to roofs cars here in cleveland right north of greenville Thanks. Keep us updated with reports. As expected a heavier band of precip is streaming out in advance of forecast. If this band holds together I expect this would move across all of north central Miss and into NW Alabama by lunch time which would be well above schedule..Will have to watch and see. I think the chance for frz. rain will also increase this afternoon across nrn miss. with temps wetbulbing below freezing most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The wet bulb is still WAY down south. http://www.daculaweather.com/conus/mesoanalysis.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 As expected, looks like some areas will see this kick off earlier than forecast. Looks like if this band holds together over North Central Mississippi moving into NE Mississippi into NW Alabama by lunchtime things could get kicked off. Already overcast in Florence and 28 with dewpoint in the mid teens. Def. think those MOS number forecast from today at least in the Western Tennessee Valley are going to bust. Shocker right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 12z NAM 850's look colder over North Central Georgia, with a healthy band of precip aimed right at Atlanta. http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Posting from my droid....12z looks good for north GA. Nice vertical velocities. Still thinking a finger band will streak out and give someone in GA a surprise greater than 2". Too bad im going to miss this. In orlando at disney. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 how is it only the southwest mtns of nc are in a winter weather adv.? why isn't the rest of the nc mtns. under a winter weather adv. or are they waiting until this afternoon to get a better look at the system? can't believe if some of the mtns are under adv. for slick roads in the morning all of the mtns i would think would have slick roads tomorrow morning .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA TUE WITH DECENT FORCING. THERE IS SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE AS A JET STREAK MOVES OVER AS WELL. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SLY AS A WEAK SFC FRONT/LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES THRU BRINGING DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WELL. TEMPS... THICKNESSES...AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WINTRY MIX LATE TONIGHT EARLY TUE AS PRECIP MOVES IN. A REAL MIXED BAG WILL DEVELOP AS SNOW AND SLEET FALL EARLY THEN FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN AS WARM NOSE THEN LOW LEVEL WARMING MOVES IN. BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SWRN NC MTNS AND NE GA MTNS WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF COLD AIR...QPF AND DURATION DEVELOP. EVEN THERE...ANY WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE COMBINATION OF P-TYPES A WINTER WX ADV WILL BE NEEDED. ELSEWHERE...THE PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT ENUF OR WINTRY PRECIP BRIEF ENUF THAT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THAT SAID...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BAND OF SLEET MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS PRECIP DEVELOPS...WHICH OFTEN OCCURS DURING THE WINTER AS PRECIP MOVES IN. EXPECT ALL RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 NWS took all the snow or sleet outta the forecast for us,, they did up the rain chances however.. maybe we can get some heavy moisture alittle quicker have a forecast low of 35 tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 NWS took all the snow or sleet outta the forecast for us,, they did up the rain chances however.. maybe we can get some heavy moisture alittle quicker have a forecast low of 35 tonight Yea and they might be a little premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 dewpoint is 17 - i really hope we can at least see a little snow tonight. this might be our only chance this year lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 that was my thought. the models still dont look good at all to me. to bad we couldnt be alittle colder thats always the story here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Posting from my droid....12z looks good for north GA. Nice vertical velocities. Still thinking a finger band will streak out and give someone in GA a surprise greater than 2". Too bad im going to miss this. In orlando at disney. Well that sucks about you not being here. I don't know if anyone will get 2 inches or not (save higher elevations...although 850mb temps/warm advection doesn't really show them having any better shot of snow than lower elevations) but the 12z nam is certainly encouraging for a quick hit of snow/sleet..and composite radar is impressive. Maybe 2 inches isn't out of the question but I would say an inch is possible across virtually anywhere in north ga. Still not sure about any freezing rain, except areas around the 925mb level. But temps/wetbulbs are very close to supporting it so if the models are off by just a little, we will get a little bit before going over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 New GFS pretty much in line withe the NAM. Not to shabby for this winter. Good enough to keep a close eye on that E-W band that looks pointed this way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Not a cloud in the sky in columbia and warming up fast. Oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Well that sucks about you not being here. I don't know if anyone will get 2 inches or not (save higher elevations...although 850mb temps/warm advectioni doesn't really show them having any better shot of snow than lower elevations) but the 12z nam is certainly encouraging for a quick hit of snow/sleet..and composite radar is impressive. Maybe 2 inches isn't out of the question but I would say an inch is possible across virtually anywhere in north ga. Still not sure about any freezing rain, except areas around the 925mb level. But temps/wetbulbs are very close to supporting it so if the models are off by just a little, we will get a little bit before going over to rain. If there is no streaker band in GA by 8-9pm then I too think it will be difficult for anyone to get 2+ outside the highest elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 If there is no streaker band in GA by 8-9pm then I too think it will be difficult for anyone to get 2+ outside the highest elevations. that does suck that you are out of town. looking for maybe 1/2 inch of sloppy slush....would love to see a feeder band but not expecting a good one or anything at this point. checking the RUC and now casting - pathetic that we are looking at whats normally a near non event as the possible biggest of the season (biggest being said sarcastically) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Looking at the SE Radar there is a finger of moisture... looks more like an arrow head... but a finger of moisture for sure ahead of the bulk moisture behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 BMX update: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 1010 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012 .UPDATE... MORNING FORECAST UPDATE. && .DISCUSSION... QUITE A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES GOING ON THIS MORNING BACK TO OUR WEST. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE...AND RADAR... WILL MAKE THE FOLLOWING CHANGES TO TODAY'S FORECAST... - BUMP POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY IN THE WEST CENTRAL ZONES... AND EXPAND THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT EASTWARD. - NUDGE THE AREA OF IP MIXED WITH THE RAIN FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. - PUSH THE START TIME OF THE PRECIP UP TO NOON. - TWEAK HOURLY TEMPS (BUT LIKELY LEAVE HIGHS AS IS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 I have found it intriguing how the 12Z runs of the models the past several days have been warmer than the 00Z runs- it hs happened again this AM with no model suggesting much if any snow anythere in the AL/GA/SC zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I have found it intriguing how the 12Z runs of the models the past several days have been warmer than the 00Z runs- it hs happened again this AM with no model suggesting much if any snow anythere in the AL/GA/SC zone. last year this would be pretty much a non event lol. still not overly optimistic and i noticed the lack of much frozen precip as well. i am basically in now cast. watching temps and dewpoint and then the radar. 43 with a dewpoint of 15 (down from 17 earlier this morning). probably wishful thinking but hopefully we can eek out a few flakes before the cold rain commences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 last year this would be pretty much a non event lol. still not overly optimistic and i noticed the lack of much frozen precip as well. i am basically in now cast. watching temps and dewpoint and then the radar. 43 with a dewpoint of 15 (down from 17 earlier this morning). probably wishful thinking but hopefully we can eek out a few flakes before the cold rain commences If anything frozen falls outside the mountains (even they won't have much in the way of snowflakes imo) in Georgia I think it will be some sleet. I don't like the look of the RUC it does not bode well for north Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 If anything frozen falls outside the mountains (even they won't have much in the way of snowflakes imo) in Georgia I think it will be some sleet. I don't like the look of the RUC it does not bode well for north Georgia. Haven't looked at this in detail, but the one caution I would put out is with respect to the RUC - I've seen numerous times where it was too warm with 850mb temps. Looking at 06z tonight, the GFS and NAM are both colder than the RUC. Would be curious to hear other opinions on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Not a cloud in the sky in columbia and warming up fast. Oh well Todays temp doesn't really matter. If something frozen falls around CAE it will be the wee- morning hours into the early AM. There were reports of 40F+ areas receiving frozen precip last night due to the evaporational cooling effects in the atmosphere. Anyway, the Hi-Res NAM is a little more dense with the moisture this morning on 12z especially in the GA area. The band basically "splits" and heads due south of the CAE metro area though and southward once it reaches SC. It also supports a brief snow/sleet/mix for the far North Georgia areas before switching to rain. The majority of SC looks to be around .10 QPF and around .25-.50 for the NGA area. (keep it mind it wouldn't all be snow before waa kicks in) This event is basically shaping up to be something nice to look at the sky for in a few areas especially NGA. Not much more than that in my opinion. Stranger things have happened though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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