DixieBlizzard Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Well, I know it's not much but I am excited to see some accumulating snow in the forecast. I really didn't think we would see anything close to this based on the way this winter has gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Just heard from friends in Austin, TX and they were mowing the lawn during a sleet storm. Hahahaha You really have to love those Texans. That would be our little system for Monday night into Tuesday. Of course, it is supposed to dry up before it gets to MBY. Not sure, at this point, if I would take 10 sleets and call it a good day or get really, really mad about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 242 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2012 SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/ THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. THE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT SHOWING TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTH FLOW AND A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION TOWARD MORNING. THE GFS IS FASTER MOVING THE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA COMPARED TO THE NAM. THE GFS MOS INDICATED A 30 PERCENT POP AT AGS COMPARED TO THE NAM MOS WITH 4 PERCENT. THE SLOWER TIMING MAY BE BETTER BASED ON THE INITIAL DRYNESS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE SOMETIMES SPREADS INTO THE AREA QUICKER THAN THE MODELS INDICATE WITH A FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW. BELIEVE THE BEST FORECAST IS TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST PART DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TUESDAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE POP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BECAUSE OF CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE MODELS KEEP MOISTURE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW AND SHOW LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT IN A FLAT H5 PATTERN. THEREFORE... THE CHANCE POPS APPEARED REASONABLE TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE PLUS THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL SUPPORTS A CONCERN FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT THE START. EXPECT LIGHT AMOUNTS SO THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY BE RAIN AND THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY ALL 09Z SREF MEMBERS SHOWING LIQUID. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE LINGERING COLD AIR MASS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. FORECASTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLEET. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...RAIN AND SLEET APPEARED MORE LIKELY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD EXCEPT THE COLDER GUIDANCE APPEARS BETTER FOR TUESDAY BECAUSE OF A COLD START AND EXPECTED CLOUDINESS WITH A LIKELY IN- SITU WEDGE PATTERN AS THE MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE DRY AIR MASS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Huntsville AFD: THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE REVOLVES AROUND THE WINTRY PRECIP TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE IMPACT TO THE SHORT-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST EXPECTED FROM THE FIRST REAL WINTER EVENT THIS YEAR. && .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT WILL BE THE LAST COLD NIGHT FOR A WHILE WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASING BY TOMORROW MORNING AND LOWS DIPPING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. THE REAL STORY OF THE SHORT-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES AND ITS MOVEMENT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS WILL INVOKE SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PUSHING PRECIP EASTWARD INTO NW AL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED...THE OUTCOME OF THIS EVENT WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUNDING ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY COLUMN THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. BETWEEN 12-18Z MONDAY...THE COLUMN ALOFT BECOMES SATURATED AND IS WELL BELOW 0C. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (18-00Z)...SATURATION CONTINUES DOWNWARD TO ROUGHLY 900MB. IT IS AROUND 00Z THAT MODELS INDICATE THAT PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT NW AL. ACCORDING TO GFS/ECMWF/NAM/UKMET SOUNDINGS...TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC WILL STILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AT THIS POINT IN TIME. HOWEVER...WITH MOST OF THE COLUMN SATURATED AND BELOW FREEZING...WB COOLING WILL OCCUR AND ALLOW THE EVENT TO BEGIN AS ALL SNOW AROUND SUNSET TOMORROW EVENING. (CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MODELS ARE NOT ACCOUNTING FOR THE WB COOLING EFFECT IN THE OUTPUT OF MOS GUIDANCE/PRECIP TYPE). THE PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX BETWEEN 03-06Z FOR NW AND N CENTRAL AL...WITH STILL ALL SNOW EXPECTED AROUND MIDNIGHT IN NE AL/SRN MIDDLE TN. BETWEEN 09-12Z TUESDAY MORNING...THE PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN IN NW AL...WITH SLEET (POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN) IN NE AL/SRN MIDDLE TN. AS THE WARM NOSE ALOFT PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE WARMER THAN THOSE LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE EASTERN AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW ANY RESIDUAL COLD AIR TO POOL IN THESE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND WHEN THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN...THE RAIN MAY FREEZE ON CONTACT WHEN IT FALLS TO THE SFC IN THESE LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. BETWEEN 12-15Z...ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. THE BIG QUESTION WITH THIS EVENT REVOLVES AROUND THE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED...AND IF SO...HOW MUCH? WITH THE CURRENT MODEL DATA...FEEL THAT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE AND WOULD LIKELY BE AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES WARM FASTER...MORE RAIN (INSTEAD OF FROZEN PRECIP) WOULD FALL...LESSENING THE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS. IT IS FOR THIS REASON THAT I DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS POINT IN TIME...BUT ONE MAY BE WARRANTED IF NEW MODEL DATA COMES IN OVERNIGHT AND SUGGESTS MORE ACCUMULATIONS THAN THE CURRENT RUNS OF THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I will take the 18z Nam SIM REF Radar look for tomorrow night over NW GA... Keep in mind models keeping WAA off until around 6am Tuesday. IF that happens would mean all this that falls between 10pm and just before sunrise would be mainly frozen. Radar would look very nice over nrn Alabama and Nrn GA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 ams30721us, You have been all over this! Thanks man! PS....Are you in Dalton right now?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 ams30721us, You have been all over this! Thanks man! PS....Are you in Dalton right now?? I know! Right? I've been watching for the posts and it might not even rain at my house. So happy that at least someone will see something out of this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 ams30721us, You have been all over this! Thanks man! PS....Are you in Dalton right now?? I am through March. On Co-op program until then working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I know! Right? I've been watching for the posts and it might not even rain at my house. So happy that at least someone will see something out of this thing. Ha Thanks. Just happy to be able to actually track something! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Well, I know it's not much but I am excited to see some accumulating snow in the forecast. I really didn't think we would see anything close to this based on the way this winter has gone. You and me both! the best part of winter weather is seeing it fall to me. If i can see a couple hours it will go a long way considering this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 This is going to all depend upon timing. I think we got a shot here in the Triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I will take the 18z Nam SIM REF Radar look for tomorrow night over NW GA... Keep in mind models keeping WAA off until around 6am Tuesday. IF that happens would mean all this that falls between 10pm and just before sunrise would be mainly frozen. Radar would look very nice over nrn Alabama and Nrn GA... Definitely not looking too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 The high res nam rader images are located here from 18z. The moisture just drops. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NAMSFC4SE_18z/rloop.html Example image: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I too am just excited to finally have something to watch. I'm on the far northern edge of FFC's "Rain/ Snow with no accumulation" zone. It'll be interesting to see how it all turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VW Builder Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Looking at the bufkit I think areas of extreme N. GA and SE TN will have several hours of heavy snow. When I say several I mean 3 to 4 hours with intense snowfall under the heavier bands. It wouldn't surprise me to see the area from Dalton or Ringgold up to Chattanooga to pick up 2 or 3 inches of the heavy, wet sloppy snow before the temps warm up and melt it away. AMS, what is your take on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I'll say it because it's going through my mind. I worry that some of the earlier onset precip is going to get eaten by the dry air over northern Georgia. I hope I'm completely wrong but with the way the rainfall falls apart due to weakening of the system to begin with I think it's a valid concern especially when we are fighting against the clock of WAA. Otherwise I'm not very optimistic but I think mby could squeeze out a short period of non-accumulating snow. Yes, I'm not the most gung ho poster to begin with, usually looking at what could go wrong with a system in general, so keep that in mind also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Looking at the bufkit I think areas of extreme N. GA and SE TN will have several hours of heavy snow. When I say several I mean 3 to 4 hours with intense snowfall under the heavier bands. It wouldn't surprise me to see the area from Dalton or Ringgold up to Chattanooga to pick up 2 or 3 inches of the heavy, wet sloppy snow before the temps warm up and melt it away. AMS, what is your take on this? I def. think we will see about 3-6 hours worth of wintry precip. I have said since the other day this would probably just be a low end advisory event and I think that will continue to be the case. More like 1-2" possible unless we see a really heavy band stream ahead. Also with the eventual mix I think that cuts down also. So more like a sloppy wet inch or so for most areas from Rome to Calhoun to NE GA on average with some areas possibly seeing up to 2". Now if precip begins earlier than I am currently expecting (Around 10pm-Midnight in N. GA) then that may change things a bit with a longer duration and more wintry precip IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The Greatness of Evaporational Cooling: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 730 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2012 .UPDATE... MIXED PRECIPITATION (RA/SN/PL) CONTINUES SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE SURFACE WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 40F. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS...TEMPS QUICKLY FALL AS PRECIP BEGINS. WHERE PRECIP HAS PERSISTED... EVAPORATIVE COOLING HAS BEEN EXHAUSTED...BUT TEMPS IN WESTERN ZONES HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING DURING THE PROCESS. HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ERATH...COMANCHE...MILLS... AND HAMILTON. ACCUMULATION IN THIS AREA HAS BEEN UNDER AN INCH... BUT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH TEMPERATURES 30 T0 32F. OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yeah, I think it's the TD's that give us a chance down here, but there isn't a lot of precip forecast anyway, and a lot will never find the ground up front. Still, my sights are set very low...all I need is 40 pellets of sleet to break my yearly total, lol, and some of the early patches flying across might be heavy enough to find dirt. And if it's snow, oh, well, you takes what you can gets, lol. Don't think I'll be sledding, but I'll be out getting cold looking for something. And I like the way the future is looking, so no reason to be down about anything. Winter finally seems to be looking for Ga. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The new Hi-Res NAM is looking even worse especially for SC. The moisture is getting eaten up by the dry air mass. I tend to believe the NAM over the GFS this close to a system moving in. EDIT: We need the evaporational cooling effects to get frozen precip so its a tossup though. Hopefully the moisture will be more robust at onset than NAM's progs. EDIT2: The CMC 00z is even less precip also and pretty much a rain event for the Midlands of SC especially (if the rain even makes it here!) EDIT3: The Sref(ensembles) & GFS in Bufkit are even rain. The wetbulbing effect doesn't get to or below freezing on any of the models for CAE. I wanted a vday frozen event. :[ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The new Hi-Res NAM is looking even worse especially for SC. The moisture is getting eaten up by the dry air mass. I tend to believe the NAM over the GFS this close to a system moving in. EDIT: We need the evaporational cooling effects to get frozen precip so its a tossup though. Hopefully the moisture will be more robust at onset than NAM's progs. EDIT2: The CMC 00z is even less precip also and pretty much a rain event for the Midlands of SC especially (if the rain even makes it here!) Cue the Upstate sadness... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Cue the Upstate sadness... You guys have a much better chance than the Midlands. I definitely expect the upstate to see wintry weather even if it's brief or a rogue band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 You guys have a much better chance than the Midlands. I definitely expect the upstate to see wintry weather even if it's brief or a rogue band. Cue the Upstate happiness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 My thoughts on the upcoming Valentine's Day event: http://gwxmanblog.blogspot.com/2012/02/more-valentines-day-storm-details.html Note: Details of how the map can change are explained in the blog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The last 2 events (incl. this one) are a good case study and proof of how synoptic meteorology works nicely. The temperatures continue to be blown, and I expect the same on Tuesday. Looks like a raw day in this zone. GFS looks good, and nailed highs again in the cold wave. Also, it handles shallow cold air and in-situ wedging well. The split flow shown about 2 weeks ago is in full force , and fun times ahead. First the incoming system. I like around MEM to the bootheel as a local spot of decent snow amounts, and another burst in northern Alabama to northern GA by late tonight. For north GA the mountains will probably stay all frozen/freezing in this event, but totals aren't high because moisture is limited. However, the GFS is producing enough and streaking it eastward quickly, so I want be surprised to see accum snow and sleet in north Alabama reaching southern TN and n. GA by tonight, then western NC mtns (mostly AVL west) by overnight. . The GFS then splits the flow again in the Plains, and a potential major storm develops in the western Gulf by Friday, with incoming cold air and a strong developing Northeast Confluent zone and this time the placement of the High pressure looks nice and classic on ECMWF and GFS. In my opinion, this one bears the best shot, but temps still aren't that cold for areas further south toward central Al-Ga but with time we'll see where the thermal gradient aligns. Cold pressing in from the north and west and East, so the TENN valley to Apps to NC are the first choice at a winter storm so far, but we're going out in time to be specific. GFS, NAM latest have the southwest system developing and a western ridge pushing the cold back into the central and eastern states: A classic setup we haven't seen yet this season. I made a snow /sleet/ZR map call on the current event at my website. Hope you guys can join (its not much) and see what all I will be offering there. I could use your support after having been here so many years and now finally got this new site going which has been a dream a couple years now. www.wxsouth.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 547 AM EST MON FEB 13 2012 ...WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA... .AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA OVERNIGHT WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE. COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS COULD HELP GIVE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...CONSISTING OF MOSTLY SNOW WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BEFORE NOON TUESDAY. GAZ001>009-011-013>016-131900- /O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0003.120214T0500Z-120214T1700Z/ DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS- CHATTOOGA-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND 547 AM EST MON FEB 13 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST TUESDAY. * LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS * HAZARD TYPES...LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 1.50 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG WITH LIGHT ICING. * TIMING...MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM TUESDAY. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Shreveport Downtown Airport 04:53 Light Snow 36 24 62 E 5 30.22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Deep moisture approaching South and West of Little Rock to the Mississippi Border moving ENE. Surface Obs would indicate this is where Precip is reaching the ground and back to the SW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Per quick check of surface obs looks like the area where the precip is reaching the ground is moving into South Central Arkansas and moving near the Mississippi border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 And thats gonna all be gone once it hits SC. Go figure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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