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Valentine's day 2012 system


Cheeznado

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Since this threat has firmed up and it is no longer in the medium range I felt it needed it own thread..

I think north GA, at least north of the perimeter will see some snow, but accumulation is the question. Looks like the area in the mountains and over to Gainesville and Athens could maybe get an inch or two if the precip comes in fast enough. I guess we may get some benefit from the brief -NAO after all...

Euro is rolling.....

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Euro shows little significant differences from the 00Z run- precip arrives in north GA between 06Z and 12Z- 0 line at 850 is from just east of CHA to GVL to AHN at 12Z. Would mean some snow north and NE of the ATL metro- evap cooling will be a big factor here.

Not that big of a deal really compared to last season, but at least it is something...

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Euro shows little significant differences from the 00Z run- precip arrives in north GA between 06Z and 12Z- 0 line at 850 is from just east of CHA to GVL to AHN at 12Z. Would mean some snow north and NE of the ATL metro- evap cooling will be a big factor here.

Not that big of a deal really compared to last season, but at least it is something...

2-4 and 4+ is a huge deal up this way. I am guessing you are talking more for the ATL area and northern GA

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How important is 1000-500mb thickness when 850's are marginal? The Thickness just looks really borderline to not good enough for AL/GA/SC/most of NC, (mountains excluded). Although TN looks quite a bit better.

I personally don't pay much attention to the thickness. I would just focus on the sounding and if there is enough moisture in the snow growth area.

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I posted this in the other thread, but thought I would put it here too.

For Tuesday AM in NC, far from an ideal setup. There is nothing at all to hold the cold air in with this setup. However, with that said, look at what happened just yesterday morning. There were some flakes out into parts of the NW piedmont with the lower levels hardly supportive. If the 12z GFS (and Euro now too) is a perfect prog (and most other models too), I would fully expect a period of snow with this out into the foothills and a chunk of the piedmont. How long it would last would depend on precip rates especially.

If you can get this to come in prior to daybreak, you might have a little something.

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Hey Larry, is this something thats a far bigger deal for western and middle tennessee. just looking at 500 it appears as if this dampens out toward east TN, which i would assume means the precip also peters out the further east you are. Additionally, I am guessing BNA looks like a good spot to be? TIA

Most of TN is in the 0.5"+ QPFM all except the eastern 1/3 which is 0.25-0.5" of liquid. 850 0C isotherm roughly splits the state in half for the event, northern half below 0 at 850, southern half above. Northern 2/3 of GA, above roughly Macon is in the 0.25-0.5" based on 850's I would think this would be a north of ATL event, maybe confined to the N GA mountains, most of NC, excluding the mountains are in the 0.1-0.25" area, mountains of NC are - category more, and likely the best place to see measurable SN. Surprised no one has mentioned, and I know it is still early, surface temps look warm for everyone outside of elevation.

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Euro has north of 40 in tennessee wetbulbing to below freezing - trying to add accum totals for the 3 hour images, looks like widespread 4 inches in tennessee with local spots of 6+

This would be a heavy wet snow I'd imagine. Ground should be pretty cold after this weekend.

If this verifies, it will be the biggest snow at BNA since 2003. We need this system in Middle Tennessee.

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Weather underground wundermaps. They have 3 hour increments for the Euro up to hour 180.

Click model data

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

Dr. Jeff Masters creation....

Thanks Marietta and Bing.

Well to me the Euro looks very similar to the GFS for this system. Quick thump of 1-2" type of snow for far NE GA before a change over to rain. ATL is still in the hunt for a period of snow thanks to the very dry air that would help support initial flakes down to the surface. Then we have the CMC which looks too warm for pretty much all of GA except maybe Rabun County or the highest elevations.

But this is still 100+ hours away with too many model runs to go.

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Most of TN is in the 0.5"+ QPFM all except the eastern 1/3 which is 0.25-0.5" of liquid. 850 0C isotherm roughly splits the state in half for the event, northern half below 0 at 850, southern half above. Northern 2/3 of GA, above roughly Macon is in the 0.25-0.5" based on 850's I would think this would be a north of ATL event, maybe confined to the N GA mountains, most of NC, excluding the mountains are in the 0.1-0.25" area, mountains of NC are - category more, and likely the best place to see measurable SN. Surprised no one has mentioned, and I know it is still early, surface temps look warm for everyone outside of elevation.

GFS soundings are too warm for mby just NW of ATL Unless this trends colder, which with the setup seems unlikely, this will be a mountain event for Georgia with perhaps the exception being NE sections outside the mountains. If I were in mid-north TN or the NC mountains I'd be a happy camper with what the CMC, Euro, and GFS are showing. Areas in between; extreme N. GA/AL and southern TN it's a borderline deal that could go either way quite easily imo. As for NC the system looks to weaken as it moves east so I have much less confidence in what they will get out of this. This is all verbatim off the 12Z suite and much can change in five days. I have seen this before and my fear is things trend warmer not cooler. I mean really when was the last time we had a storm five days out that trended towards more snow?

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12z GFS extracted data paints .38" liquid equiv. of snow for Gainesville GA early Tuesdsay AM.

GFS Model Run: 12Z  9FEB 2012
 HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb  MSLP  TCC PRS WX  Low      Middle     High     Max    Min  Sfc Snowfall
               Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in.     Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp    mb    %  TEXT   Clouds    Clouds    Clouds    Tmp    Tmp  Vis    in 
  0 02/09 12Z   33     31     335       6    0.00  0.00    547    567    2.2 -16.7 1026.0   0          CLR       CLR       CLR    ****   ****  6.0    0.0
  3 02/09 15Z   40     31      33       3    0.00  0.00    547    568    1.7 -16.4 1026.5   1          CLR       CLR       CLR      40     32 20.0    0.0
  6 02/09 18Z   48     34     155       5    0.00  0.00    548    568    1.3 -16.7 1024.6   1          CLR       CLR       CLR      48     32 20.0    0.0
  9 02/09 21Z   50     36     182       5    0.00  0.00    548    567    0.4 -17.1 1022.7  66          CLR    219SCT238 259SCT290   50     48 20.0    0.0
 12 02/10 00Z   39     35     179       4    0.00  0.00    548    567    0.8 -17.8 1022.9  51          FEW    219FEW238 264SCT311   50     39 19.5    0.0
 15 02/10 03Z   36     33     185       3    0.00  0.00    548    568    0.7 -17.8 1023.7  16       049FEW054    CLR    282FEW324   39     36 14.0    0.0
 18 02/10 06Z   35     32     207       2    0.00  0.00    548    567    1.4 -18.1 1023.5  51          CLR       CLR    293BKN369   39     35 11.4    0.0
 21 02/10 09Z   35     33     159       3    0.00  0.00    548    566    2.0 -18.6 1022.2  90          CLR       CLR    290BKN366   35     34  9.8    0.0
 24 02/10 12Z   37     34     157       3    0.00  0.00    547    565    2.4 -18.2 1021.6  93          CLR    204SCT238 264BKN364   37     34  7.0    0.0
 27 02/10 15Z   42     37     127       3    0.01  0.00    546    564    3.2 -17.6 1021.7 100 -RA      CLR    154OVC238 238OVC348   42     37  4.2    0.0
 30 02/10 18Z   50     37     234       7    0.00  0.00    546    562    1.0 -18.2 1019.5  97 -RA      CLR    141BKN232 245BKN345   50     37 20.0    0.0
 33 02/10 21Z   50     36     230       5    0.00  0.00    546    560    2.2 -18.5 1016.3  98 -RA   104FEW116 118OVC200 245FEW324   50     49 20.0    0.0
 36 02/11 00Z   44     37     280       8    0.00  0.00    545    559   -0.6 -18.5 1016.6  95 -RA   091SCT118 125BKN198 247SCT325   50     44 18.1    0.0
 39 02/11 03Z   41     38     280       7    0.03  0.00    543    557   -1.2 -20.5 1017.0  98 -RA   063BKN116 128BKN235 236SCT303   44     41  3.8    0.0
 42 02/11 06Z   37     35     293      10    0.00  0.00    541    554   -0.8 -21.7 1015.8  95 -RA   061SCT113 148BKN234 234BKN288   44     37  3.5    0.0
 45 02/11 09Z   34     33     293      10    0.00  0.00    542    553    0.2 -19.1 1014.3   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      37     34  3.8    0.0
 48 02/11 12Z   34     32     297      12    0.00  0.00    541    553   -2.1 -18.7 1015.5   1       023FEW043    CLR       CLR      37     33  5.1    0.0
 51 02/11 15Z   39     30     310      18    0.00  0.00    541    554   -4.1 -18.0 1017.2   9       027FEW052    CLR       CLR      39     34 20.0    0.0
 54 02/11 18Z   37     21     312      19    0.00  0.00    539    553   -6.4 -18.4 1017.8   4       029FEW051    CLR       CLR      39     34 20.0    0.0
 57 02/11 21Z   34     16     318      19    0.00  0.00    536    550   -9.0 -18.9 1018.9   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      37     34 20.0    0.0
 60 02/12 00Z   24     13     317      14    0.00  0.00    532    549   -8.1 -17.6 1023.6   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      37     24 20.0    0.0
 63 02/12 03Z   20      8     325      12    0.00  0.00    530    549   -7.0 -17.9 1026.3   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      24     20 20.0    0.0
 66 02/12 06Z   19      6     319       8    0.00  0.00    529    549   -5.6 -19.2 1027.0   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      24     19 20.0    0.0
 69 02/12 09Z   19      7     328       8    0.00  0.00    530    550   -4.5 -20.0 1027.3   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      19     19 20.0    0.0
 72 02/12 12Z   20      9     319       6    0.00  0.00    531    554   -5.5 -20.8 1029.4   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      20     19 20.0    0.0
 75 02/12 15Z   27      7     323       8    0.00  0.00    534    557   -5.0 -20.7 1030.9   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      27     20 20.0    0.0
 78 02/12 18Z   37      3     319       7    0.00  0.00    536    558   -4.2 -19.6 1028.6   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      37     20 20.0    0.0
 81 02/12 21Z   39      7     311       8    0.00  0.00    539    560   -2.8 -17.3 1026.2   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      40     37 20.0    0.0
 84 02/13 00Z   29      9     317       7    0.00  0.00    542    562   -1.3 -16.8 1026.6   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      40     29 20.0    0.0
 87 02/13 03Z   26      9     338       4    0.00  0.00    543    564   -0.6 -17.0 1027.0   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      29     26 20.0    0.0
 90 02/13 06Z   25      8     329       3    0.00  0.00    543    564   -0.8 -16.9 1026.1   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      29     25 20.0    0.0
 93 02/13 09Z   24      7     316       2    0.00  0.00    544    563   -0.2 -17.0 1024.9   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      25     24 20.0    0.0
 96 02/13 12Z   23      6     271       2    0.00  0.00    543    563   -0.3 -17.5 1025.1  11          CLR       CLR    259FEW295   25     23 20.0    0.0
 99 02/13 15Z   35      7     245       3    0.00  0.00    543    563   -0.7 -17.6 1025.5  64          CLR    167SCT234 238BKN274   35     23 20.0    0.0
102 02/13 18Z   44     11     227       5    0.00  0.00    544    562    0.1 -18.0 1022.5  72          CLR    145BKN205 237SCT272   44     23 20.0    0.0
105 02/13 21Z   46     16     215       7    0.00  0.00    545    561    0.4 -17.9 1019.0  39          CLR    121SCT160 269FEW288   46     43 20.0    0.0
108 02/14 00Z   34     15     225       5    0.00  0.00    544    561    0.5 -18.4 1020.7  59       096FEW117 120SCT161 253SCT322   46     34 20.0    0.0
111 02/14 03Z   34     16     219       4    0.00  0.00    544    561   -0.7 -18.9 1020.6  83       098FEW116 132BKN197 241BKN317   36     32 20.0    0.0
114 02/14 06Z   35     21     162       4    0.04  0.00    543    559   -2.0 -19.3 1019.8  91 -SN   069SCT117 130BKN213 238BKN320   36     32 20.0    0.0
117 02/14 09Z   34     25     102       5    0.05  0.00    543    558   -2.4 -19.0 1018.0 100 -SN   053BKN117 121BKN229 236BKN314   35     34 20.0    0.2
120 02/14 12Z   32     30      66       7    0.29  0.00    544    559   -0.3 -20.1 1018.0 100 SN    043BKN118 119BKN233 236OVC311   35     32  0.5    1.5

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GFS soundings are too warm for mby just NW of ATL Unless this trends colder, which with the setup seems unlikely, this will be a mountain event for Georgia with perhaps the exception being NE sections outside the mountains. If I were in mid-north TN or the NC mountains I'd be a happy camper with what the CMC, Euro, and GFS are showing. Areas in between; extreme N. GA/AL and southern TN it's a borderline deal that could go either way quite easily imo. As for NC the system looks to weaken as it moves east so I have much less confidence in what they will get out of this. This is all verbatim off the 12Z suite and much can change in five days. I have seen this before and my fear is things trend warmer not cooler. I mean really when was the last time we had a storm five days out that trended towards more snow?

How about Christmas 2010? Nothing on the GFS model for 3-5 days out and then BOOM! A lot of people were caught unawares by that storm. (Of course, not on this board, but people solely listening to mainstream media.) Waking up Christmas morning in Asheville and checking the board, I knew we were in for a special treat, yet my in-laws didn't believe me at all. The Citizen-Times paper for that morning mentioned the possibility of a novelty snow event for the day. (They were working off the previous day's info, and they did not keep up to pace with the system.)

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GFS soundings are too warm for mby just NW of ATL Unless this trends colder, which with the setup seems unlikely, this will be a mountain event for Georgia with perhaps the exception being NE sections outside the mountains. If I were in mid-north TN or the NC mountains I'd be a happy camper with what the CMC, Euro, and GFS are showing. Areas in between; extreme N. GA/AL and southern TN it's a borderline deal that could go either way quite easily imo. As for NC the system looks to weaken as it moves east so I have much less confidence in what they will get out of this. This is all verbatim off the 12Z suite and much can change in five days. I have seen this before and my fear is things trend warmer not cooler. I mean really when was the last time we had a storm five days out that trended towards more snow?

It will be close but timing (mostly overnight into the early AM) and evap cooling are working in our favor, especially north of the perimeter. True the heviest snow will be north of us, but at least we have a shot (you more than me) of seeing maybe an inch if the stars align correctly. I may take a road trip early Tues up north to get into the better area.
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12z GFS extracted data paints .38" liquid equiv. of snow for Gainesville GA early Tuesdsay AM.

GFS Model Run: 12Z  9FEB 2012
 HR Valid	 2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb  MSLP  TCC PRS WX  Low	  Middle	 High	 Max	Min  Sfc Snowfall
			Deg F  Deg F   deg	  kt	in.   in.	 Thk	GPH   Tmp   Tmp	mb	%  TEXT   Clouds	Clouds	Clouds	Tmp	Tmp  Vis	in
  0 02/09 12Z   33	 31	 335	   6	0.00  0.00	547	567	2.2 -16.7 1026.0   0		  CLR	   CLR	   CLR	****   ****  6.0	0.0
  3 02/09 15Z   40	 31	  33	   3	0.00  0.00	547	568	1.7 -16.4 1026.5   1		  CLR	   CLR	   CLR	  40	 32 20.0	0.0
  6 02/09 18Z   48	 34	 155	   5	0.00  0.00	548	568	1.3 -16.7 1024.6   1		  CLR	   CLR	   CLR	  48	 32 20.0	0.0
  9 02/09 21Z   50	 36	 182	   5	0.00  0.00	548	567	0.4 -17.1 1022.7  66		  CLR	219SCT238 259SCT290   50	 48 20.0	0.0
 12 02/10 00Z   39	 35	 179	   4	0.00  0.00	548	567	0.8 -17.8 1022.9  51		  FEW	219FEW238 264SCT311   50	 39 19.5	0.0
 15 02/10 03Z   36	 33	 185	   3	0.00  0.00	548	568	0.7 -17.8 1023.7  16	   049FEW054	CLR	282FEW324   39	 36 14.0	0.0
 18 02/10 06Z   35	 32	 207	   2	0.00  0.00	548	567	1.4 -18.1 1023.5  51		  CLR	   CLR	293BKN369   39	 35 11.4	0.0
 21 02/10 09Z   35	 33	 159	   3	0.00  0.00	548	566	2.0 -18.6 1022.2  90		  CLR	   CLR	290BKN366   35	 34  9.8	0.0
 24 02/10 12Z   37	 34	 157	   3	0.00  0.00	547	565	2.4 -18.2 1021.6  93		  CLR	204SCT238 264BKN364   37	 34  7.0	0.0
 27 02/10 15Z   42	 37	 127	   3	0.01  0.00	546	564	3.2 -17.6 1021.7 100 -RA	  CLR	154OVC238 238OVC348   42	 37  4.2	0.0
 30 02/10 18Z   50	 37	 234	   7	0.00  0.00	546	562	1.0 -18.2 1019.5  97 -RA	  CLR	141BKN232 245BKN345   50	 37 20.0	0.0
 33 02/10 21Z   50	 36	 230	   5	0.00  0.00	546	560	2.2 -18.5 1016.3  98 -RA   104FEW116 118OVC200 245FEW324   50	 49 20.0	0.0
 36 02/11 00Z   44	 37	 280	   8	0.00  0.00	545	559   -0.6 -18.5 1016.6  95 -RA   091SCT118 125BKN198 247SCT325   50	 44 18.1	0.0
 39 02/11 03Z   41	 38	 280	   7	0.03  0.00	543	557   -1.2 -20.5 1017.0  98 -RA   063BKN116 128BKN235 236SCT303   44	 41  3.8	0.0
 42 02/11 06Z   37	 35	 293	  10	0.00  0.00	541	554   -0.8 -21.7 1015.8  95 -RA   061SCT113 148BKN234 234BKN288   44	 37  3.5	0.0
 45 02/11 09Z   34	 33	 293	  10	0.00  0.00	542	553	0.2 -19.1 1014.3   0		  CLR	   CLR	   CLR	  37	 34  3.8	0.0
 48 02/11 12Z   34	 32	 297	  12	0.00  0.00	541	553   -2.1 -18.7 1015.5   1	   023FEW043	CLR	   CLR	  37	 33  5.1	0.0
 51 02/11 15Z   39	 30	 310	  18	0.00  0.00	541	554   -4.1 -18.0 1017.2   9	   027FEW052	CLR	   CLR	  39	 34 20.0	0.0
 54 02/11 18Z   37	 21	 312	  19	0.00  0.00	539	553   -6.4 -18.4 1017.8   4	   029FEW051	CLR	   CLR	  39	 34 20.0	0.0
 57 02/11 21Z   34	 16	 318	  19	0.00  0.00	536	550   -9.0 -18.9 1018.9   0		  CLR	   CLR	   CLR	  37	 34 20.0	0.0
 60 02/12 00Z   24	 13	 317	  14	0.00  0.00	532	549   -8.1 -17.6 1023.6   0		  CLR	   CLR	   CLR	  37	 24 20.0	0.0
 63 02/12 03Z   20	  8	 325	  12	0.00  0.00	530	549   -7.0 -17.9 1026.3   0		  CLR	   CLR	   CLR	  24	 20 20.0	0.0
 66 02/12 06Z   19	  6	 319	   8	0.00  0.00	529	549   -5.6 -19.2 1027.0   0		  CLR	   CLR	   CLR	  24	 19 20.0	0.0
 69 02/12 09Z   19	  7	 328	   8	0.00  0.00	530	550   -4.5 -20.0 1027.3   0		  CLR	   CLR	   CLR	  19	 19 20.0	0.0
 72 02/12 12Z   20	  9	 319	   6	0.00  0.00	531	554   -5.5 -20.8 1029.4   0		  CLR	   CLR	   CLR	  20	 19 20.0	0.0
 75 02/12 15Z   27	  7	 323	   8	0.00  0.00	534	557   -5.0 -20.7 1030.9   0		  CLR	   CLR	   CLR	  27	 20 20.0	0.0
 78 02/12 18Z   37	  3	 319	   7	0.00  0.00	536	558   -4.2 -19.6 1028.6   0		  CLR	   CLR	   CLR	  37	 20 20.0	0.0
 81 02/12 21Z   39	  7	 311	   8	0.00  0.00	539	560   -2.8 -17.3 1026.2   0		  CLR	   CLR	   CLR	  40	 37 20.0	0.0
 84 02/13 00Z   29	  9	 317	   7	0.00  0.00	542	562   -1.3 -16.8 1026.6   0		  CLR	   CLR	   CLR	  40	 29 20.0	0.0
 87 02/13 03Z   26	  9	 338	   4	0.00  0.00	543	564   -0.6 -17.0 1027.0   0		  CLR	   CLR	   CLR	  29	 26 20.0	0.0
 90 02/13 06Z   25	  8	 329	   3	0.00  0.00	543	564   -0.8 -16.9 1026.1   0		  CLR	   CLR	   CLR	  29	 25 20.0	0.0
 93 02/13 09Z   24	  7	 316	   2	0.00  0.00	544	563   -0.2 -17.0 1024.9   0		  CLR	   CLR	   CLR	  25	 24 20.0	0.0
 96 02/13 12Z   23	  6	 271	   2	0.00  0.00	543	563   -0.3 -17.5 1025.1  11		  CLR	   CLR	259FEW295   25	 23 20.0	0.0
 99 02/13 15Z   35	  7	 245	   3	0.00  0.00	543	563   -0.7 -17.6 1025.5  64		  CLR	167SCT234 238BKN274   35	 23 20.0	0.0
102 02/13 18Z   44	 11	 227	   5	0.00  0.00	544	562	0.1 -18.0 1022.5  72		  CLR	145BKN205 237SCT272   44	 23 20.0	0.0
105 02/13 21Z   46	 16	 215	   7	0.00  0.00	545	561	0.4 -17.9 1019.0  39		  CLR	121SCT160 269FEW288   46	 43 20.0	0.0
108 02/14 00Z   34	 15	 225	   5	0.00  0.00	544	561	0.5 -18.4 1020.7  59	   096FEW117 120SCT161 253SCT322   46	 34 20.0	0.0
111 02/14 03Z   34	 16	 219	   4	0.00  0.00	544	561   -0.7 -18.9 1020.6  83	   098FEW116 132BKN197 241BKN317   36	 32 20.0	0.0
114 02/14 06Z   35	 21	 162	   4	0.04  0.00	543	559   -2.0 -19.3 1019.8  91 -SN   069SCT117 130BKN213 238BKN320   36	 32 20.0	0.0
117 02/14 09Z   34	 25	 102	   5	0.05  0.00	543	558   -2.4 -19.0 1018.0 100 -SN   053BKN117 121BKN229 236BKN314   35	 34 20.0	0.2
120 02/14 12Z   32	 30	  66	   7	0.29  0.00	544	559   -0.3 -20.1 1018.0 100 SN	043BKN118 119BKN233 236OVC311   35	 32  0.5	1.5

Can you get this for me for KDNN or a link? Thanks!

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Any chance this could develop into an ice storm? Seems that high pressure could setup shop off the east coast and create a nice CAD event.

I don't think so. You need the High to be in a place like NY. An offshore high will place the SE in return flow (warmer SW winds). You need to be on the front side of the high or have it directly north of you for the winds to come from the NE and dam down the apps.

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How about Christmas 2010? Nothing on the GFS model for 3-5 days out and then BOOM! A lot of people were caught unawares by that storm. (Of course, not on this board, but people solely listening to mainstream media.) Waking up Christmas morning in Asheville and checking the board, I knew we were in for a special treat, yet my in-laws didn't believe me at all. The Citizen-Times paper for that morning mentioned the possibility of a novelty snow event for the day. (They were working off the previous day's info, and they did not keep up to pace with the system.)

I was thinking the same think. I wouldn't take the models as truth until at least 48 hours out. Usually if it shows a big system more than that far in advance, it weakens. And sometimes the opposite is true, and it actually gets bigger on the models a day or two out.

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How about Christmas 2010? Nothing on the GFS model for 3-5 days out and then BOOM! A lot of people were caught unawares by that storm. (Of course, not on this board, but people solely listening to mainstream media.) Waking up Christmas morning in Asheville and checking the board, I knew we were in for a special treat, yet my in-laws didn't believe me at all. The Citizen-Times paper for that morning mentioned the possibility of a novelty snow event for the day. (They were working off the previous day's info, and they did not keep up to pace with the system.)

I thought the Christmas storm ended up being weaker than progged. Didn't the Euro at one point show a bomb? If your post is right then I stand corrected. But in general I have seen totals decrease as time goes on. It's not a scientific thing it's just the feel I get from the models usually when we are looking at a storm.

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