ThreeRedheads Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 For those who didn't see this thread Weather Forecast and Discussion, this is a really helpful excel based forecasting tool: http://www.txtornado.net/Worksheet.html The thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32389-cool-new-free-excel-based-forecasting-tool/ I'm interested to see what the MA mets have to say about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 radar has much more coverage than wednesday this looks to be far better than Wednesday particularly what ever is around will be followed by cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Flakes have also started here. A couple hours ahead of schedule. I'm sure this translates into much more snow for the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 i guess the general public is too stupid to realize the difference but im not sure why everyone's still calling this coastal storm precip. i guess it's a nuance not really worth getting into but it seems to leave at least some with more hope than they should have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Flakes have also started here. A couple hours ahead of schedule. I'm sure this translates into much more snow for the DC area. i cant tell if people are being serious or joking anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 i cant tell if people are being serious or joking anymore. He's being mean. I used to like him. And who's saying "coastal precipitation?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'm proably letting the weenie side of me take control a bit but I do like the vort moving into northern IL. I don't have high hopes for anything before that because frankly there's no reason to think it will amount to anything different that what I've already seen because of the stupid surface temps. Maybe we do get more than a line of snow showers/squalls on sat afternoon? I'm looking forward to the 18z nam. Is one stinking inch of snow actually sticking to the grass AND sidewalks too much to ask for god sakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 He's being mean. I used to like him. And who's saying "coastal precipitation?" most of the media etc. i think it's probably just because it's easier.. it is related of course. i suppose it's a stupid thing for me to be annoyed about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'm proably letting the weenie side of me take control a bit but I do like the vort moving into northern IL. I don't have high hopes for anything before that because frankly there's no reason to think it will amount to anything different that what I've already seen because of the stupid surface temps. Maybe we do get more than a line of snow showers/squalls on sat afternoon? I'm looking forward to the 18z nam. Is one stinking inch of snow actually sticking to the grass AND sidewalks too much to ask for god sakes? A few minutes ago I was on the goes site and realized that I couldn't remember the last time I looked at a water vapor loop just to watch cold air intrusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 i cant tell if people are being serious or joking anymore. just remember, lawyers lie the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 i cant tell if people are being serious or joking anymore. I was serious that it is snowing. Joking about it meaning more for the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 For those who didn't see this thread Weather Forecast and Discussion, this is a really helpful excel based forecasting tool: http://www.txtornado.../Worksheet.html The thread: http://www.americanw...recasting-tool/ I'm interested to see what the MA mets have to say about it. Oh man - reminds me of that snowmachine program thing - anybody remember - I will not comment again on it - the guy acted like a robot? anybody remember and know if he/she was ever exposed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 most of the media etc. i think it's probably just because it's easier.. it is related of course. i suppose it's a stupid thing for me to be annoyed about. You might be annoyed because it falls into the hype category. I watched a WMAR video clip just a while ago and weather woman that I've never seen before said that this won't be a big deal because our precip "will not join up with the coastal storm." Quite the antithesis of JB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 You might be annoyed because it falls into the hype category. I watched a WMAR video clip just a while ago and weather woman that I've never seen before said that this won't be a big deal because our precip "will not join up with the coastal storm." Quite the antithesis of JB. quite the opposite of what we would have expected a former met on that station would have suggested, don't you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 quite the opposite of what we would have expected a former met on that station would have suggested, don't you think? Yeah. That's what I meant by, "Quite the antithesis of JB." Maybe I should have said the local JB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Map from Millersville's Eric Horst, funny thing is he is actually a really good met from Millersville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 You might be annoyed because it falls into the hype category. I watched a WMAR video clip just a while ago and weather woman that I've never seen before said that this won't be a big deal because our precip "will not join up with the coastal storm." Quite the antithesis of JB. that's good.. i know the former wmar person is talking about bust potential in the se if the coastal gives more than currently anticipated. i know some of it is just ease of explanation tho i think people are generally receptive to learning. but take all the rain after lee.. the big days were ones in which "lee" was already well to our northeast even if it helped the upper trough orientation/strength. yet everyone called it flooding from lee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yeah. That's what I meant by, "Quite the antithesis of JB." Maybe I should have said the local JB. I'm sorry, my fault I always associate JB w/Bastardi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Map from Millersville's Eric Horst, funny thing is he is actually a really good met from Millersville. It's probably a little bullish, but his maps have been pretty accurate so far this season with the nickle and dime events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 that GL low is gunna' bollux up some forecasts in the NE I think pretty strong on the 18Z NAM (if it's right) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 18z sim radar (hrs 12 an 15) shows some precip around late late tonight... freezing line back near Apps... flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 18hrs on the NAM looks OK to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 that's good.. i know the former wmar person is talking about bust potential in the se if the coastal gives more than currently anticipated. i know some of it is just ease of explanation tho i think people are generally receptive to learning. but take all the rain after lee.. the big days were ones in which "lee" was already well to our northeast even if it helped the upper trough orientation/strength. yet everyone called it flooding from lee. A few of our flood events are like that. I've tried to explain the reality to friends or co-workers and all that happens is that I come across as petty. I honestly think people like being able to say, "Remember the time we got hit by ______!" Everyone loves being "that guy." I'm sorry, my fault I always associate JB w/Bastardi An easy mistake, and I even like the local one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 18hrs on the NAM looks OK to me This is a cooler run near the surface. If you take 975mb as a decent guide for snow, we are ok from about 9z forward to the end of the first part of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 vort swinging through ky is stronger vs same period on 12z run. a real inch of snow is on the way. i can feel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This is a cooler run near the surface. If you take 975mb as a decent guide for snow, we are ok from about 9z forward to the end of the first part of the storm. yeah, but (always a "but" this year) after 12Z, it warms back above 32 (compare 18hrs to 21 and 24 hrs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 vort swinging through ky is stronger vs same period on 12z run. a real inch of snow is on the way. i can feel it. ya' beat me to it Bob, I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This is a cooler run near the surface. If you take 975mb as a decent guide for snow, we are ok from about 9z forward to the end of the first part of the storm. Not sure at 24 hrs... doesn't look like much with the h5 energy coming in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 yeah, but (always a "but" this year) after 12Z, it warms back above 32 (compare 18hrs to 21 and 24 hrs) Ahh I don't know so much about the legitimacy of it rising back up until after the precip falls, nonetheless I'd agree with MN it'd be snow after 9z til the the first round of precip ends, as for part 2 I'm more impressed this run with that vort and sim rad looks good if you ask me on IWM.com at 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 yeah, but (always a "but" this year) after 12Z, it warms back above 32 (compare 18hrs to 21 and 24 hrs) Yes, we are entirely dependant on the precipitation as the cold surface air is well back. At least the time of day isn't a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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