am19psu Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I dont know why DT and JB bother with maps. They are terrible short term forecasters fyp. I don't know why people read them. Don S, Wes, et al are all way better than those two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GFS still holds the precip as enough to overcome poitive temps. Well that's certainly interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Well that's certainly interesting I don't know how it's spitting out Ice pellets with temps approaching 40 though, GFS smells funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I don't know how it's spitting out Ice pellets with temps approaching 40 though, GFS smells funny. Lolz...the past few days just seem warped all together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 fyp. I don't know why people read them. Don S, Wes, et al are all way better than those two. interesting trait of human beings that we love people who tell us what we want to hear, right or wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 For BWI on the GFS, freezing level is between 900 and 925mb at 6z and then steadily drops toward 12z reaching 950mb. Lower still at 15z. Surface temps 35-37F the whole time. I surprised that meteogram shows 100% frozen for DCA. DCA's skew-Ts are very similar to BWI's. Not sure where the pellets comes in either as there's no above freezing level aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 To me LWX's forecast for IAD looks pretty good...though maybe a touch warm. Forecast soundings to me look like snow the few hours around 12Z...the GFS keeps it all snow through tomorrow with a small chance of some mixing mid-day. Will be interesting, though precip amounts so light... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 lol dt awful terrible map Agree the map is way too bullish, but I noticed it was posted yesterday afternoon. Maybe his final call map will be more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I don't know how it's spitting out Ice pellets with temps approaching 40 though, GFS smells funny. The GFS was trying to spit out snow a couple of days ago within 24 hours for DCA. The NAM, while much maligned here, handled the boundary layer warmth a lot better once we were close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I know that part... facebook is blocked at work. just looking if you could post the picture This one came out a few minutes ago. The prior one was ridicule-worthy. This isn't terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 New map out from DT...deff a lot lower than previous but still potentially too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This one came out a few minutes ago. The prior one was ridicule-worthy. This isn't terrible. I agree, that looks pretty darn accurate down here I still doubt BOX getting decent accumulations as the bl is depicted to be pretty warm through at least half the qpf on the NCEP maps and this winter we need to respect the models when they depict bl problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This one came out a few minutes ago. The prior one was ridicule-worthy. This isn't terrible. 3-8" for OKV-MRB-HGR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Seems like he always makes dca the battleground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 it is pretty terrible. there is no way I am getting 3-8" of snow this weekend based on any legit model run. .25" QPF at the best, with half of that as rain, isn't going to give me 3" of snow. I don't know what geographical area he is supposed to be excellent in forecasting for--maybe his backyard? Maybe he doesn't know where the mountains are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 it is pretty terrible. there is no way I am getting 3-8" of snow this weekend based on any legit model run. .25" QPF at the best, with half of that as rain, isn't going to give me 3" of snow. I don't know what geographical area he is supposed to be excellent in forecasting for--maybe his backyard? he's yet to get even ONE forecast to verify out here despite years of practice. idk- I'm going to be pretty jealous of your area when the energy comes through after the front. You might squeeze 2" out of that and you may squeeze 1" out of the pre-frontal stuff. It's hard to say really because the precip sweet spots for both "events" are pretty tough to pinpoint. I don't think .5-1" from the vort swinging through sat afternoon around the metro areas is too agressive. You'll do better in your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 But DT was pretty good a few years ago. At least I thought he was. He's lost his touch....or mind....or both... He is playing to a different audience than when he used to be here. Easier to call for bigger things when many will not hold him accountable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'm on the way to wisp now. WSW there for 4-8" this weekend. Good weekend to ski. I'll do my best to get weenie obs posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Euro has the u/l snows too, but more like 1/2" in Central MD per Wunderground maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 it is pretty terrible. there is no way I am getting 3-8" of snow this weekend based on any legit model run. .25" QPF at the best, with half of that as rain, isn't going to give me 3" of snow. I don't know what geographical area he is supposed to be excellent in forecasting for--maybe his backyard? he's yet to get even ONE forecast to verify out here despite years of practice. Yeah, he has his 3-8 line in VA just west of Leesburg down into Fauquier County and further south. I just think he "mis-located" the mountains by about 40 miles. Other than that, his guess is reasonable based on what we are seeing. Waiting for Ellinwoods map. I will go with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 it is pretty terrible. there is no way I am getting 3-8" of snow this weekend based on any legit model run. .25" QPF at the best, with half of that as rain, isn't going to give me 3" of snow. I don't know what geographical area he is supposed to be excellent in forecasting for--maybe his backyard? he's yet to get even ONE forecast to verify out here despite years of practice. That map needs an "up to 2" zone in eastern 50 miles of the 3-8 zone which he has for the high country of wv. I think Jon Jon area will see over a foot total by Sunday as ratios go high there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Some precip aloft in my area by looks of radar. 37/29...just starting to moisten up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaSnow Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yeah, he has his 3-8 line in VA just west of Leesburg down into Fauquier County and further south. I just think he "mis-located" the mountains by about 40 miles. Other than that, his guess is reasonable based on what we are seeing. Waiting for Ellinwoods map. I will go with that one. Geography is not DT's strong suit. Several years ago, I dared to point out that his map of an event for a particular area came nowhere close to matching the text description. He chewed me out in a private message. I usually just look at DT's maps for the entertainment value. I rarely take them seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Cool, I'm in the same zone as western Faquier on his map. 3-6" in western PA and 3-8" for the favored upslope/lake effect region. Unusual for such a slight difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Weenie snowfall maps for the Euro on Wundergound show my neighborhood getting 0.3-0.5" for the entire event tonight and tomorrow. Snow showers manage to miss in every direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Euro has the u/l snows too, but more like 1/2" in Central MD per Wunderground maps Sweet. That would be the 2nd biggest snowfall IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Sweet. That would the 2nd biggest snowfall IMBY. *high-five* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Here's my snow map for now through 12z Sunday: Some additional snow could accumulate up in the mountains past 7am Sunday, but I've got the bulk of it encompassed in the forecast and the 12z cut-off should make verification a bit easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Weenie snowfall maps for the Euro on Wundergound show my neighborhood getting 0.3-0.5" for the entire event tonight and tomorrow. Snow showers manage to miss in every direction. Euro snowfall maps were spot on for Wed, but terrible for last weekend. That's IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Here's my snow map for now through 12z Sunday: Some additional snow could accumulate up in the mountains past 7am Sunday, but I've got the bulk of it encompassed in the forecast and the 12z cut-off should make verification a bit easier. Definitely the anti DT map there for dca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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