mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This one came out a few minutes ago. The prior one was ridicule-worthy. This isn't terrible. I agree, that looks pretty darn accurate down here I still doubt BOX getting decent accumulations as the bl is depicted to be pretty warm through at least half the qpf on the NCEP maps and this winter we need to respect the models when they depict bl problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This one came out a few minutes ago. The prior one was ridicule-worthy. This isn't terrible. 3-8" for OKV-MRB-HGR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Seems like he always makes dca the battleground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 it is pretty terrible. there is no way I am getting 3-8" of snow this weekend based on any legit model run. .25" QPF at the best, with half of that as rain, isn't going to give me 3" of snow. I don't know what geographical area he is supposed to be excellent in forecasting for--maybe his backyard? Maybe he doesn't know where the mountains are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 it is pretty terrible. there is no way I am getting 3-8" of snow this weekend based on any legit model run. .25" QPF at the best, with half of that as rain, isn't going to give me 3" of snow. I don't know what geographical area he is supposed to be excellent in forecasting for--maybe his backyard? he's yet to get even ONE forecast to verify out here despite years of practice. idk- I'm going to be pretty jealous of your area when the energy comes through after the front. You might squeeze 2" out of that and you may squeeze 1" out of the pre-frontal stuff. It's hard to say really because the precip sweet spots for both "events" are pretty tough to pinpoint. I don't think .5-1" from the vort swinging through sat afternoon around the metro areas is too agressive. You'll do better in your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 But DT was pretty good a few years ago. At least I thought he was. He's lost his touch....or mind....or both... He is playing to a different audience than when he used to be here. Easier to call for bigger things when many will not hold him accountable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'm on the way to wisp now. WSW there for 4-8" this weekend. Good weekend to ski. I'll do my best to get weenie obs posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Euro has the u/l snows too, but more like 1/2" in Central MD per Wunderground maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 it is pretty terrible. there is no way I am getting 3-8" of snow this weekend based on any legit model run. .25" QPF at the best, with half of that as rain, isn't going to give me 3" of snow. I don't know what geographical area he is supposed to be excellent in forecasting for--maybe his backyard? he's yet to get even ONE forecast to verify out here despite years of practice. Yeah, he has his 3-8 line in VA just west of Leesburg down into Fauquier County and further south. I just think he "mis-located" the mountains by about 40 miles. Other than that, his guess is reasonable based on what we are seeing. Waiting for Ellinwoods map. I will go with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 it is pretty terrible. there is no way I am getting 3-8" of snow this weekend based on any legit model run. .25" QPF at the best, with half of that as rain, isn't going to give me 3" of snow. I don't know what geographical area he is supposed to be excellent in forecasting for--maybe his backyard? he's yet to get even ONE forecast to verify out here despite years of practice. That map needs an "up to 2" zone in eastern 50 miles of the 3-8 zone which he has for the high country of wv. I think Jon Jon area will see over a foot total by Sunday as ratios go high there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Some precip aloft in my area by looks of radar. 37/29...just starting to moisten up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaSnow Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yeah, he has his 3-8 line in VA just west of Leesburg down into Fauquier County and further south. I just think he "mis-located" the mountains by about 40 miles. Other than that, his guess is reasonable based on what we are seeing. Waiting for Ellinwoods map. I will go with that one. Geography is not DT's strong suit. Several years ago, I dared to point out that his map of an event for a particular area came nowhere close to matching the text description. He chewed me out in a private message. I usually just look at DT's maps for the entertainment value. I rarely take them seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Cool, I'm in the same zone as western Faquier on his map. 3-6" in western PA and 3-8" for the favored upslope/lake effect region. Unusual for such a slight difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Weenie snowfall maps for the Euro on Wundergound show my neighborhood getting 0.3-0.5" for the entire event tonight and tomorrow. Snow showers manage to miss in every direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Euro has the u/l snows too, but more like 1/2" in Central MD per Wunderground maps Sweet. That would be the 2nd biggest snowfall IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Sweet. That would the 2nd biggest snowfall IMBY. *high-five* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Here's my snow map for now through 12z Sunday: Some additional snow could accumulate up in the mountains past 7am Sunday, but I've got the bulk of it encompassed in the forecast and the 12z cut-off should make verification a bit easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Weenie snowfall maps for the Euro on Wundergound show my neighborhood getting 0.3-0.5" for the entire event tonight and tomorrow. Snow showers manage to miss in every direction. Euro snowfall maps were spot on for Wed, but terrible for last weekend. That's IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Here's my snow map for now through 12z Sunday: Some additional snow could accumulate up in the mountains past 7am Sunday, but I've got the bulk of it encompassed in the forecast and the 12z cut-off should make verification a bit easier. Definitely the anti DT map there for dca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Here's my snow map for now through 12z Sunday: Some additional snow could accumulate up in the mountains past 7am Sunday, but I've got the bulk of it encompassed in the forecast and the 12z cut-off should make verification a bit easier. Wow so not even a dusting with the vort pass N&W of the cities?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Here's my snow map for now through 12z Sunday: Some additional snow could accumulate up in the mountains past 7am Sunday, but I've got the bulk of it encompassed in the forecast and the 12z cut-off should make verification a bit easier. Are you just changing the dates on your maps? Doesn't look any different than before Reasonable map, mark. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 WWA just issued here for 1-3". LOL. I'm sure it'll be just as warranted as the one on Wednesday which produced exactly 0.00" of snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Is the gfs messed up or something? What's up with these charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Here's my snow map for now through 12z Sunday: Some additional snow could accumulate up in the mountains past 7am Sunday, but I've got the bulk of it encompassed in the forecast and the 12z cut-off should make verification a bit easier. NWS much more bull****...er, I mean bullish than you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Are you just changing the dates on your maps? Doesn't look any different than before Reasonable map, mark. Good luck. Ha, thanks. Yeah, it seems like the same ol' thing for a good chunk of us. Wow so not even a dusting with the vort pass N&W of the cities?. I'm thinking a dusting to 1/2 inch for most of MD/DC with that vort pass. However, I do not plot snowfall accumulations under an inch on my maps (way too much work when I have to do all of this forecasting and verification in my spare time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Here's my snow map for now through 12z Sunday: Some additional snow could accumulate up in the mountains past 7am Sunday, but I've got the bulk of it encompassed in the forecast and the 12z cut-off should make verification a bit easier. At first I thought you might be over compensating for getting burned a little mid-week, but then I remembered that your map doesn't show less than 1 inch accumulations (other than the word "mixing"). Have you considered a pink area for coatings? Nice map. Edit: You answered my question. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 At first I thought you might be over compensating for getting burned a little mid-week, but then I remembered that your map doesn't show less than 1 inch accumulations (other than the word "mixing"). Have you considered a pink area for coatings? Nice map. Edit: You answered my question. Thanks. I reserve the pink shade for when I think there will be a good amount of only sleet/ice accumulation (that doesn't overlap with the 1"+ snow line). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Snow flakes are falling...37/29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 WWA just issued here for 1-3". LOL. I'm sure it'll be just as warranted as the one on Wednesday which produced exactly 0.00" of snow here. I think this one has a better chance. Better time of day, better in that the sun has been shieded somewhat by the clouds today, better couple of days leading up in that it was "cold" giving us better ground conditions. We'll see, but if we wake up to a little snow cover it won't be a shock. None wouldn't be a shock either. I'm interested in tomorrow afternoon. Anyone with thoughts on how that might play out? Usually that stuff doesn't work well for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.