nw baltimore wx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Charleston has WSW for Elkins and Snoeshoe. I'm sure Pittsburgh will follow suit for Garrett and Tucker soon. I'm heading up there next weekend for four days. Hopefully anything that falls will still be around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Total precip for 36hr is actually decent AND the stupid dumb suface will be well below freezing. Stiff NW winds to go along with. I've been mostly shut out imby this year. Always on the edge of acum snow but nothing really noteworthy. To think that this little feature might be the most "wintery" event kinda puts it all in perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Charleston has WSW for Elkins and Snoeshoe. I'm sure Pittsburgh will follow suit for Garrett and Tucker soon. I'm heading up there next weekend for four days. Hopefully anything that falls will still be around. I'll be interested to see how LWX reacts to the latest models. They look a bit better to me, but there's always the knowledge that there's much I don't see that others do. Then there's the weenie faithful "temps are under forecast". It's true though. It seems we will have a tough time reaching the forecast temps here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'll be interested to see how LWX reacts to the latest models. They look a bit better to me, but there's always the knowledge that there's much I don't see that others do. Then there's the weenie faithful "temps are under forecast". It's true though. It seems we will have a tough time reaching the forecast temps here. Things now look better than Wednesday, specifically when MN Transplant was posting temps and dews. Right now my winds are light out of the NW, but I think there's going to be a southerly component this afternoon that will probably nudge surface temps and dews somewhat higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Shortwave looks nice...hoping the models don't continue the trend of pulling it north and thus shutting out central VA. We had a similar event two years ago to the day - about 3 hours of blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Saturday afternoon squall looks interesting. Like last Saturday but with colder ground and maybe temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Have 2" in the full shade areas here left over from past two "events". Maybe build to a 4" shade snow pack here by tomorrow eveening. Temp now 33.4... with all the clouds low 40's seems a stretch Have to be at my VA house this weekend for kids events. hate missing weekend here as it looks to be the best winter weekend of the season. Maybe squalls will be fun in VA tomorrow while I work on the "honey do" list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Maybe I need glasses but does 12z gfs not say the 42hr 2m temp is 18 for DCA with precip still falling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 With 850s at -12 and surface temps in the 20s I'm not so sure we won't have better ratios than 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Maybe I need glasses but does 12z gfs not say the 42hr 2m temp is 18 for DCA with precip still falling? The map shows the precip. ENDING at 42hr (in other words, the QPF is for the hours prior to 42hr). The GFS does not show any QPF beyond 42hr, so precip. is not still falling at 42hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The map shows the precip. ENDING at 42hr (in other words, the QPF is for the hours prior to 42hr). The GFS does not show any QPF beyond 42hr, so precip. is not still falling at 42hr. Yea just noticed nada on 48 map... Still in the mid 20s during some of the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Nobody posted DT's first guess?!? It gets a big . 2-4" for the cities from DCA northward towards Philly with 1-2" around that north and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Nobody posted DT's first guess?!? It gets a big . 2-4" for the cities from DCA northward towards Philly with 1-2" around that north and south. well, if you call it a "guess" or "potential" you can pretty much say anything and claim it's not a "forecast" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Nobody posted DT's first guess?!? It gets a big . 2-4" for the cities from DCA northward towards Philly with 1-2" around that north and south. lol terrible map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 lol terrible map I dont know why DT and JB bother with maps. They are terrible short term forecasters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GFS still holds the precip as enough to overcome poitive temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 can you post it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I dont know why DT and JB bother with maps. They are terrible short term forecasters But DT was pretty good a few years ago. At least I thought he was. He's lost his touch....or mind....or both... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 https://www.facebook...&type=1 I know that part... facebook is blocked at work. just looking if you could post the picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I dont know why DT and JB bother with maps. They are terrible short term forecasters fyp. I don't know why people read them. Don S, Wes, et al are all way better than those two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GFS still holds the precip as enough to overcome poitive temps. Well that's certainly interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Well that's certainly interesting I don't know how it's spitting out Ice pellets with temps approaching 40 though, GFS smells funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I don't know how it's spitting out Ice pellets with temps approaching 40 though, GFS smells funny. Lolz...the past few days just seem warped all together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 fyp. I don't know why people read them. Don S, Wes, et al are all way better than those two. interesting trait of human beings that we love people who tell us what we want to hear, right or wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 For BWI on the GFS, freezing level is between 900 and 925mb at 6z and then steadily drops toward 12z reaching 950mb. Lower still at 15z. Surface temps 35-37F the whole time. I surprised that meteogram shows 100% frozen for DCA. DCA's skew-Ts are very similar to BWI's. Not sure where the pellets comes in either as there's no above freezing level aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 To me LWX's forecast for IAD looks pretty good...though maybe a touch warm. Forecast soundings to me look like snow the few hours around 12Z...the GFS keeps it all snow through tomorrow with a small chance of some mixing mid-day. Will be interesting, though precip amounts so light... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 lol dt awful terrible map Agree the map is way too bullish, but I noticed it was posted yesterday afternoon. Maybe his final call map will be more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I don't know how it's spitting out Ice pellets with temps approaching 40 though, GFS smells funny. The GFS was trying to spit out snow a couple of days ago within 24 hours for DCA. The NAM, while much maligned here, handled the boundary layer warmth a lot better once we were close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I know that part... facebook is blocked at work. just looking if you could post the picture This one came out a few minutes ago. The prior one was ridicule-worthy. This isn't terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 New map out from DT...deff a lot lower than previous but still potentially too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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