stormtracker Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Well, our only hope now is the SQUALL!!1!! It does continue to show up on the models, which is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 NAM is pretty insistent on the squall line coming through...looks like a general .08-.11 for everyone...could be a powdery half inch to an inch for some and with the cold temps maybe Sunday morning might look like what winter is supposed to look like...of course with the high winds if there is snow on the ground it will probably be blown into corners.....1" drifts anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 BUFKIT of the NAM for BWI 120211/0400Z 16 06004KT 39.7F RAIN 0.004 120211/0500Z 17 06004KT 39.4F RAIN 0.008 120211/0600Z 18 VRB02KT 38.8F RAIN 0.028 120211/0700Z 19 01005KT 38.3F RAIN 0.031 120211/0800Z 20 02004KT 37.8F RAIN 0.016 120211/0900Z 21 34004KT 37.4F RAIN 0.035 120211/1000Z 22 32005KT 36.5F RAIN 0.031 120211/1100Z 23 32006KT 35.4F RASN 0.016 120211/1200Z 24 31006KT 35.1F RASN 0.004 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Break out windex parameters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Meh, at least the NAM has it changing over this run, 6z was all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 BUFKIT of the NAM for BWI 120211/0400Z 16 06004KT 39.7F RAIN 0.004 120211/0500Z 17 06004KT 39.4F RAIN 0.008 120211/0600Z 18 VRB02KT 38.8F RAIN 0.028 120211/0700Z 19 01005KT 38.3F RAIN 0.031 120211/0800Z 20 02004KT 37.8F RAIN 0.016 120211/0900Z 21 34004KT 37.4F RAIN 0.035 120211/1000Z 22 32005KT 36.5F RAIN 0.031 120211/1100Z 23 32006KT 35.4F RASN 0.016 120211/1200Z 24 31006KT 35.1F RASN 0.004 12Z NAM has 1.3" at MRB for this evening's activity and 0.4" from the frontal passage tomorrow afternoon. At HGR its 0.8" tonight and 1.0" tomorrow. Being between the two, looks like I may see another minor accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 12Z NAM has 1.3" at MRB for this evening's activity and 0.4" from the frontal passage tomorrow afternoon. At HGR its 0.8" tonight and 1.0" tomorrow. Being between the two, looks like I may see another minor accumulation. Take whatever you can get, right? NAM also some snow late Saturday night into Sunday 120212/0300Z 39 30015KT 27.5F SNOW 0.004 120212/0400Z 40 31013KT 27.9F SNOW 0.012 120212/0500Z 41 33014KT 29.7F SNOW 0.016 120212/0600Z 42 34017KT 28.4F SNOW 0.012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GFS looks pretty darn good on the u/l event EDIT: pretty darn good for us east of the mts. that rarely score with them, that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 this "should" be all snow per GFS 24hr-period ending 45 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F10%2F2012+12UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p24&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=045&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I've actually been more interested in that feature (and that's kinda sad too). I'm tired of chasing snow that can't survive the last 1000' drop. Could be some "winterlike" snow in the air even if just for an hour or 2. Somebody might score an inch. Mtns usually steal it all but I'm not mad at this map at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 this "should" be all snow per GFS 24hr-period ending 45 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=L Total precip for 36hr is actually decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Charleston has WSW for Elkins and Snoeshoe. I'm sure Pittsburgh will follow suit for Garrett and Tucker soon. I'm heading up there next weekend for four days. Hopefully anything that falls will still be around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Total precip for 36hr is actually decent AND the stupid dumb suface will be well below freezing. Stiff NW winds to go along with. I've been mostly shut out imby this year. Always on the edge of acum snow but nothing really noteworthy. To think that this little feature might be the most "wintery" event kinda puts it all in perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Charleston has WSW for Elkins and Snoeshoe. I'm sure Pittsburgh will follow suit for Garrett and Tucker soon. I'm heading up there next weekend for four days. Hopefully anything that falls will still be around. I'll be interested to see how LWX reacts to the latest models. They look a bit better to me, but there's always the knowledge that there's much I don't see that others do. Then there's the weenie faithful "temps are under forecast". It's true though. It seems we will have a tough time reaching the forecast temps here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'll be interested to see how LWX reacts to the latest models. They look a bit better to me, but there's always the knowledge that there's much I don't see that others do. Then there's the weenie faithful "temps are under forecast". It's true though. It seems we will have a tough time reaching the forecast temps here. Things now look better than Wednesday, specifically when MN Transplant was posting temps and dews. Right now my winds are light out of the NW, but I think there's going to be a southerly component this afternoon that will probably nudge surface temps and dews somewhat higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Shortwave looks nice...hoping the models don't continue the trend of pulling it north and thus shutting out central VA. We had a similar event two years ago to the day - about 3 hours of blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Saturday afternoon squall looks interesting. Like last Saturday but with colder ground and maybe temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Have 2" in the full shade areas here left over from past two "events". Maybe build to a 4" shade snow pack here by tomorrow eveening. Temp now 33.4... with all the clouds low 40's seems a stretch Have to be at my VA house this weekend for kids events. hate missing weekend here as it looks to be the best winter weekend of the season. Maybe squalls will be fun in VA tomorrow while I work on the "honey do" list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Maybe I need glasses but does 12z gfs not say the 42hr 2m temp is 18 for DCA with precip still falling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 With 850s at -12 and surface temps in the 20s I'm not so sure we won't have better ratios than 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Maybe I need glasses but does 12z gfs not say the 42hr 2m temp is 18 for DCA with precip still falling? The map shows the precip. ENDING at 42hr (in other words, the QPF is for the hours prior to 42hr). The GFS does not show any QPF beyond 42hr, so precip. is not still falling at 42hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The map shows the precip. ENDING at 42hr (in other words, the QPF is for the hours prior to 42hr). The GFS does not show any QPF beyond 42hr, so precip. is not still falling at 42hr. Yea just noticed nada on 48 map... Still in the mid 20s during some of the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Nobody posted DT's first guess?!? It gets a big . 2-4" for the cities from DCA northward towards Philly with 1-2" around that north and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Nobody posted DT's first guess?!? It gets a big . 2-4" for the cities from DCA northward towards Philly with 1-2" around that north and south. well, if you call it a "guess" or "potential" you can pretty much say anything and claim it's not a "forecast" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Nobody posted DT's first guess?!? It gets a big . 2-4" for the cities from DCA northward towards Philly with 1-2" around that north and south. lol terrible map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 lol terrible map I dont know why DT and JB bother with maps. They are terrible short term forecasters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GFS still holds the precip as enough to overcome poitive temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 can you post it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I dont know why DT and JB bother with maps. They are terrible short term forecasters But DT was pretty good a few years ago. At least I thought he was. He's lost his touch....or mind....or both... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 https://www.facebook...&type=1 I know that part... facebook is blocked at work. just looking if you could post the picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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