showmethesnow Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 No major changes on the 06Z NAM compared to the 00Z. It does swing the trough through a little farther north (50 miles?) going through the region. Also looks as if the colder air may be bleeding in a little quicker as well. Edit: Wanted to add that it has also cut down on precip totals somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 No major suprises on the GFS and the minor changes pretty much mirror the NAM with slightly less precip and with bringing the trough through a little farther north. The SREF's are also cutting down a little on the precip. Unlike the other 2 models they are bringing the trough further south on this run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 LWX is bullish again. Forecast for Hagerstown is for 1-3" tonight, and another half-inch tomorrow afternoon with the arctic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 In winters such as this one, did you notice any anomalous period of time? I remember a while back talking to you about this, and a few others, and I believe some of these styled winters tended to have something ~ Feb 20 and again March 10-15. Interesting that you'd say that. Yesterdays number 1 analog match in the centered means to the current setup was 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 LWX is bullish again. Forecast for Hagerstown is for 1-3" tonight, and another half-inch tomorrow afternoon with the arctic front. Gulf moisture available with this one. precip too light and surface temps would be my concern with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 LWX is bullish again. Forecast for Hagerstown is for 1-3" tonight, and another half-inch tomorrow afternoon with the arctic front. Not surprising given how they handled the last event. One would think that they would revise later today with how it looks right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Full winter furry on the high ridges of WV . Imagine standing on the Spruce Knob Observatory Saturday night. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=38.688725613296725&lon=-79.53620910644531&site=lwx&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 StnID: kdca Profile Thermal Adjust: 0.0 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Average Hourly Sounding: NO Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF S%| I%| L% ============================================================================================================================ 120210/0900Z 3 25003KT 32.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 120210/1200Z 6 VRB02KT 30.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 120210/1500Z 9 VRB01KT 40.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 120210/1800Z 12 21003KT 46.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120210/2100Z 15 VRB02KT 44.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 120211/0000Z 18 VRB00KT 39.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0|100 120211/0300Z 21 VRB02KT 38.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0| 0 120211/0600Z 24 04003KT 39.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120211/0900Z 27 01005KT 37.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.055 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 0| 0|100 120211/1200Z 30 35007KT 35.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 0| 0|100 120211/1500Z 33 33009KT 38.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 0| 0| 0 120211/1800Z 36 33009KT 41.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120211/2100Z 39 33008KT 40.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 120212/0000Z 42 31018KT 31.5F SNOW 15:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 15:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 100| 0| 0 120212/0300Z 45 33021KT 25.7F SNOW 21:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 17:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0 120212/0600Z 48 33018KT 20.8F SNOW 22:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 19:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Darn this snow, it drives me to make maps. 06z GFS and NAM continue to show boundary layer troubles up through northern MD. Based off the models, there's likely no stickage for the lower elevations until at least 09z unless rates are better and/or models are too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Of course, right after I post that... Come on now, Berk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Of course, right after I post that... Come on now, Berk. Sad that if sbos posts another map, I'd take that more seriously than the local JB's. Although on the positive side, it is put together nicely. He probably did well in science fairs as a kid. Berk isn't a met though I think he's a legitimate met, just an unemployed one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Of course, right after I post that... Come on now, Berk. Tony Pann had a simliar forecast out this morning. He had 1-2 inches for most of MD down towards DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Tony Pann had a simliar forecast out this morning. He had 1-2 inches for most of MD down towards DC. People seem to be willingly ignorant WRT the boundary layer temps this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 People seem to be willingly ignorant WRT the boundary layer temps this winter. Agreed... I have a little bit of elevation on my side, but I am in no way expecting 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Though I will share this tweet from am19psu @Amwx_Adam Snow tomorrow: DCA T-1, BWI T-1, PHL 1-2, NYC 2-3, BDL 2-4, BOS 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Here is my map...hoping for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I expect this to be just like the last two events, probably just under an inch for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I expect this to be just like the last two events, probably just under an inch for me. Sounds about right - Adam thinks T-1 for us as well, maybe closer to an inch than a trace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Part of the LWX's morning AFD NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR TNGT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD TOWARD THE WRN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS TNGT...WHILE THE WEAKER SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SE STATES. AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS START TO PHASE...A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST THIS EVE. IT APPEARS THESE TWO SYSTEMS DO NOT TRULY PHASE UNTIL THE COASTAL LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THEREFORE...THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK THAT KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP EAST OF THE CHSPK BAY. MODELS DUE SHOW WEAK FORCING VIA ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LLVL FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE CWA AS MOISTURE STREAMS NWD AHEAD BOTH SYSTEMS. THEREFORE...LGT PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO START OFF AS RAIN THIS EVE...BEFORE MIXING WITH AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE TNGT. SIMILAR TO THE EVENT ON WED...SFC TEMPERATURES START OUT FAIRLY WARM. ATTM...EXPECT THE RA/SN LINE TO BE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SNOW OVER POTOMAC HIGHLANDS/ERN WV/WRN MD AND RAIN ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. PRECIP IS THEN FORECASTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE TNGT ACROSS THE NRN/WRN SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITIES. GIVEN THE LGT QPF TNGT AND MARGINAL SFC TEMPS...GENERALLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH TO PERHAPS TWO INCHES IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE IS POSSIBLE. THE LIKELIHOOD FOR TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY. PRECIP MAY CHANGE OVER TO A WET SNOW IN THE CITIES...BUT THE GROUND WILL LIKELY BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Is there ever an event where Berk is not too high? Why are we surprised? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Tony Pann had a simliar forecast out this morning. He had 1-2 inches for most of MD down towards DC. I wouldn't be so dismissive of his forecast. Tony Pann is a good meteorologist- he's generally a very conservative forecaster and usually ends up right. I doubt it'll happen, but if he's bullish on this storm, I'm taking notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think tonight's event (for lack of a better word) will be marginally better than earlier this week. Although today is likely going to be warmer than during the day on Wednesday, I think dewpoints will be lower so that when the precip starts, the column will cool somewhat more quickly, relatively speaking. Also, if we can get some snow, the fact that it's falling at night might help a little too. Having said that, when I say "marginally better," I mean that my solid coating from Wednesday might actually be measurable, and the cities that didn't even see a flake on Wednesday may actually see some snow falling. I'm certainly not expecting it, but if Oregon Ridge can somehow eek out more than an inch, the plastic toboggan and I might have to watch the sun rise tomorrow morning from the hill overlooking I 83. Either way, hopefully tomorrow evening can produce a fluffy snow shower or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 LWX is bullish again. Forecast for Hagerstown is for 1-3" tonight, and another half-inch tomorrow afternoon with the arctic front. WWA in effect here from 4PM through Sunday...1-3 for tonight, another inch or so Saturday...2-4 total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I wouldn't be so dismissive of his forecast. Tony Pann is a good meteorologist- he's generally a very conservative forecaster and usually ends up right. I doubt it'll happen, but if he's bullish on this storm, I'm taking notice. Not sure where I said his forecast would be wrong? I just said I do not expect 2 inches at my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This is what I'm looking forward to on Saturday. Some sort of squally precip event, hopefully snow. Nice winter lapse rates, with the surface >40 and the 850s at -7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 don't you hate it when you reach that moment and realize you've run out of models to keep hope alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The 12Z NAM looks not far from the 06Z GFS now in terms of the late afternoon/evening snow-- lingers past 0Z accompanied by rapidly falling temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This is what I'm looking forward to on Saturday. Some sort of squally precip event, hopefully snow. Nice winter lapse rates, with the surface >40 and the 850s at -7. Sadly, ever since you said this yesterday, I've been looking forward to tomorrow evening myself. It doesn't look like the surface even begins to cool down until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This is what I'm looking forward to on Saturday. Some sort of squally precip event, hopefully snow. Nice winter lapse rates, with the surface >40 and the 850s at -7. these squally events can be really fun, albeit short-lived..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 total qpf for the u/l low, which as mentioned, will be all snow....some places will see an inch+ I bet http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Paramℑ=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20120210%2F12%2Fnam_namer_048_precip_p12_l.gif&fcast=048&imagesurls=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p12&cycle=02%2F10%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=L&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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