mappy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Of course, right after I post that... Come on now, Berk. Tony Pann had a simliar forecast out this morning. He had 1-2 inches for most of MD down towards DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Tony Pann had a simliar forecast out this morning. He had 1-2 inches for most of MD down towards DC. People seem to be willingly ignorant WRT the boundary layer temps this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 People seem to be willingly ignorant WRT the boundary layer temps this winter. Agreed... I have a little bit of elevation on my side, but I am in no way expecting 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Though I will share this tweet from am19psu @Amwx_Adam Snow tomorrow: DCA T-1, BWI T-1, PHL 1-2, NYC 2-3, BDL 2-4, BOS 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Here is my map...hoping for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I expect this to be just like the last two events, probably just under an inch for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I expect this to be just like the last two events, probably just under an inch for me. Sounds about right - Adam thinks T-1 for us as well, maybe closer to an inch than a trace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Part of the LWX's morning AFD NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR TNGT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD TOWARD THE WRN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS TNGT...WHILE THE WEAKER SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SE STATES. AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS START TO PHASE...A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST THIS EVE. IT APPEARS THESE TWO SYSTEMS DO NOT TRULY PHASE UNTIL THE COASTAL LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THEREFORE...THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK THAT KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP EAST OF THE CHSPK BAY. MODELS DUE SHOW WEAK FORCING VIA ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LLVL FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE CWA AS MOISTURE STREAMS NWD AHEAD BOTH SYSTEMS. THEREFORE...LGT PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO START OFF AS RAIN THIS EVE...BEFORE MIXING WITH AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE TNGT. SIMILAR TO THE EVENT ON WED...SFC TEMPERATURES START OUT FAIRLY WARM. ATTM...EXPECT THE RA/SN LINE TO BE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SNOW OVER POTOMAC HIGHLANDS/ERN WV/WRN MD AND RAIN ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. PRECIP IS THEN FORECASTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE TNGT ACROSS THE NRN/WRN SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITIES. GIVEN THE LGT QPF TNGT AND MARGINAL SFC TEMPS...GENERALLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH TO PERHAPS TWO INCHES IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE IS POSSIBLE. THE LIKELIHOOD FOR TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY. PRECIP MAY CHANGE OVER TO A WET SNOW IN THE CITIES...BUT THE GROUND WILL LIKELY BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Is there ever an event where Berk is not too high? Why are we surprised? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Tony Pann had a simliar forecast out this morning. He had 1-2 inches for most of MD down towards DC. I wouldn't be so dismissive of his forecast. Tony Pann is a good meteorologist- he's generally a very conservative forecaster and usually ends up right. I doubt it'll happen, but if he's bullish on this storm, I'm taking notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think tonight's event (for lack of a better word) will be marginally better than earlier this week. Although today is likely going to be warmer than during the day on Wednesday, I think dewpoints will be lower so that when the precip starts, the column will cool somewhat more quickly, relatively speaking. Also, if we can get some snow, the fact that it's falling at night might help a little too. Having said that, when I say "marginally better," I mean that my solid coating from Wednesday might actually be measurable, and the cities that didn't even see a flake on Wednesday may actually see some snow falling. I'm certainly not expecting it, but if Oregon Ridge can somehow eek out more than an inch, the plastic toboggan and I might have to watch the sun rise tomorrow morning from the hill overlooking I 83. Either way, hopefully tomorrow evening can produce a fluffy snow shower or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 LWX is bullish again. Forecast for Hagerstown is for 1-3" tonight, and another half-inch tomorrow afternoon with the arctic front. WWA in effect here from 4PM through Sunday...1-3 for tonight, another inch or so Saturday...2-4 total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I wouldn't be so dismissive of his forecast. Tony Pann is a good meteorologist- he's generally a very conservative forecaster and usually ends up right. I doubt it'll happen, but if he's bullish on this storm, I'm taking notice. Not sure where I said his forecast would be wrong? I just said I do not expect 2 inches at my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This is what I'm looking forward to on Saturday. Some sort of squally precip event, hopefully snow. Nice winter lapse rates, with the surface >40 and the 850s at -7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 don't you hate it when you reach that moment and realize you've run out of models to keep hope alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The 12Z NAM looks not far from the 06Z GFS now in terms of the late afternoon/evening snow-- lingers past 0Z accompanied by rapidly falling temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This is what I'm looking forward to on Saturday. Some sort of squally precip event, hopefully snow. Nice winter lapse rates, with the surface >40 and the 850s at -7. Sadly, ever since you said this yesterday, I've been looking forward to tomorrow evening myself. It doesn't look like the surface even begins to cool down until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This is what I'm looking forward to on Saturday. Some sort of squally precip event, hopefully snow. Nice winter lapse rates, with the surface >40 and the 850s at -7. these squally events can be really fun, albeit short-lived..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 total qpf for the u/l low, which as mentioned, will be all snow....some places will see an inch+ I bet http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Paramℑ=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20120210%2F12%2Fnam_namer_048_precip_p12_l.gif&fcast=048&imagesurls=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p12&cycle=02%2F10%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=L&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Well, our only hope now is the SQUALL!!1!! It does continue to show up on the models, which is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 NAM is pretty insistent on the squall line coming through...looks like a general .08-.11 for everyone...could be a powdery half inch to an inch for some and with the cold temps maybe Sunday morning might look like what winter is supposed to look like...of course with the high winds if there is snow on the ground it will probably be blown into corners.....1" drifts anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 BUFKIT of the NAM for BWI 120211/0400Z 16 06004KT 39.7F RAIN 0.004 120211/0500Z 17 06004KT 39.4F RAIN 0.008 120211/0600Z 18 VRB02KT 38.8F RAIN 0.028 120211/0700Z 19 01005KT 38.3F RAIN 0.031 120211/0800Z 20 02004KT 37.8F RAIN 0.016 120211/0900Z 21 34004KT 37.4F RAIN 0.035 120211/1000Z 22 32005KT 36.5F RAIN 0.031 120211/1100Z 23 32006KT 35.4F RASN 0.016 120211/1200Z 24 31006KT 35.1F RASN 0.004 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Break out windex parameters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Meh, at least the NAM has it changing over this run, 6z was all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 BUFKIT of the NAM for BWI 120211/0400Z 16 06004KT 39.7F RAIN 0.004 120211/0500Z 17 06004KT 39.4F RAIN 0.008 120211/0600Z 18 VRB02KT 38.8F RAIN 0.028 120211/0700Z 19 01005KT 38.3F RAIN 0.031 120211/0800Z 20 02004KT 37.8F RAIN 0.016 120211/0900Z 21 34004KT 37.4F RAIN 0.035 120211/1000Z 22 32005KT 36.5F RAIN 0.031 120211/1100Z 23 32006KT 35.4F RASN 0.016 120211/1200Z 24 31006KT 35.1F RASN 0.004 12Z NAM has 1.3" at MRB for this evening's activity and 0.4" from the frontal passage tomorrow afternoon. At HGR its 0.8" tonight and 1.0" tomorrow. Being between the two, looks like I may see another minor accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 12Z NAM has 1.3" at MRB for this evening's activity and 0.4" from the frontal passage tomorrow afternoon. At HGR its 0.8" tonight and 1.0" tomorrow. Being between the two, looks like I may see another minor accumulation. Take whatever you can get, right? NAM also some snow late Saturday night into Sunday 120212/0300Z 39 30015KT 27.5F SNOW 0.004 120212/0400Z 40 31013KT 27.9F SNOW 0.012 120212/0500Z 41 33014KT 29.7F SNOW 0.016 120212/0600Z 42 34017KT 28.4F SNOW 0.012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GFS looks pretty darn good on the u/l event EDIT: pretty darn good for us east of the mts. that rarely score with them, that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 this "should" be all snow per GFS 24hr-period ending 45 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F10%2F2012+12UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p24&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=045&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I've actually been more interested in that feature (and that's kinda sad too). I'm tired of chasing snow that can't survive the last 1000' drop. Could be some "winterlike" snow in the air even if just for an hour or 2. Somebody might score an inch. Mtns usually steal it all but I'm not mad at this map at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 this "should" be all snow per GFS 24hr-period ending 45 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=L Total precip for 36hr is actually decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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