MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I sometimes find those 500 mb to be a bit of a mystery, but the energy swinging through on sat looks better, to me. Seems to still be quite a bit of variability from run to run. Who knows what this looks like tomorrow. Sure would be nice to get those temps down a few degrees just a bit sooner. I can't remember another winter where in mid feb with a slp bombing off the coast we had bl issues like this... They're screwing us out of a moderate event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Judging from the 850 low path, the surface depiction would argue for even closer to the coast... I still think the gfs is sorting things out a bit, but better than the nam there's pretty good consensus on the low track around here at this point.. it's not going ot hit us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 there's pretty good consensus on the low track around here at this point.. it's not going ot hit us It is close enough to toss some more moisture back our way, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I can't remember another winter where in mid feb with a slp bombing off the coast we had bl issues like this... They're screwing us out of a moderate event the low doesnt really bomb initially.. not till it gets up to se of new england and long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 It is close enough to toss some more moisture back our way, though. it enhances a little.. not much. a lot of that precip is not directly related to the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 millz, regarding your post you deleted there is a diff on this run of the nam and gfs but im not sure it's that important. im talking more generally where the low forms and then moves on various runs of late. the front is going to impede its west movement no matter what imo. there's only so much we can get out of it especially with it in its formative stages at the point it passes.. not to mention phases often happen late so who knows if it will even look as "good" as models show right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 It is close enough to toss some more moisture back our way, though. Phin Tom T on channel 11 just said you could get 1-3" storm totals. He is usually conservative and the best forecaster in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Ian or Matt will you be up to do Euro pbp?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Ian or Matt will you be up to do Euro pbp?. i wont .. i like going to bed as it starts then judging how good it is by how many more posts are in the thread in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 In a Nutshell there you have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOS Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Hello Guys... and gals...newbie to this site.....but have been watching for a long time.....just signed up.....love watching the threads and hoping for some winter wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 DT rockin the 2-4" for DC and Balt....why does he seem like a weenie lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 DT rockin the 2-4" for DC and Balt....why does he seem like a weenie lately? Was just about to post.... He seems to think all our qpf falls as snow and sticks immediately... Bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 DT rockin the 2-4" for DC and Balt....why does he seem like a weenie lately? Good teacher....terrible forecaster. Anyway, the best shot for the metros is likely to be with the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I take it the Euro isnt very interesting...New England thread says the southern vort screws them, just .20-.35 precip, so my guess is probably much of the same down here, .1-.2 or whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 True, but unless something changes it seems like even if it snows it will be hard to have stickage on the streets. Well a few nights in the teens/20s will certainly help with ground temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 we have about 5 weeks left here in the immediate metro areas.... In winters such as this one, did you notice any anomalous period of time? I remember a while back talking to you about this, and a few others, and I believe some of these styled winters tended to have something ~ Feb 20 and again March 10-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Good stuff. Assuming the MJO continues to propagate and ENSO doesn't do anything drastic, there is some real potential for some very warm periods in March. There are two possible issues for warmth: 1. Shortening wavelengths may keep a trough near the East Coast late in the month (Alaskan / PAC NW trough = East Coast trough) 2. Reemergence of polar blocking with the state of the sun. Could be a weird look to the monthly anomaly where like the Mid-Atlantic is on either side of normal while New England and the South are definitely above normal. Just speculating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I definitely would lean warm as well....You do get some nasty late season cold fronts but they are so shortlived it is in the 60s, 48 hours later.....I remember in March 2002 we got a couple nasty air masses late in the season and it was cold as sh-it at night probably because of the drought....Late March brought a -20 departure air mass. which was colder wrt normal than we had seen all winter I'm looking for 1 of 2 things in March/April that would make it cool...a heat wave of mid to upper 80s followed by a snowstorm a few days later (probably interior).....and/or a massive epic noreaster which would also probably be an interior event....but a huge QPF event I could definitely see that happening this March. Some impressive warm departures very close to a late-season winter storm. The late March negatives make sense too with the rising averages. There is usually that last cold shot in early April too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 No major changes on the 06Z NAM compared to the 00Z. It does swing the trough through a little farther north (50 miles?) going through the region. Also looks as if the colder air may be bleeding in a little quicker as well. Edit: Wanted to add that it has also cut down on precip totals somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 No major suprises on the GFS and the minor changes pretty much mirror the NAM with slightly less precip and with bringing the trough through a little farther north. The SREF's are also cutting down a little on the precip. Unlike the other 2 models they are bringing the trough further south on this run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 LWX is bullish again. Forecast for Hagerstown is for 1-3" tonight, and another half-inch tomorrow afternoon with the arctic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 In winters such as this one, did you notice any anomalous period of time? I remember a while back talking to you about this, and a few others, and I believe some of these styled winters tended to have something ~ Feb 20 and again March 10-15. Interesting that you'd say that. Yesterdays number 1 analog match in the centered means to the current setup was 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 LWX is bullish again. Forecast for Hagerstown is for 1-3" tonight, and another half-inch tomorrow afternoon with the arctic front. Gulf moisture available with this one. precip too light and surface temps would be my concern with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 LWX is bullish again. Forecast for Hagerstown is for 1-3" tonight, and another half-inch tomorrow afternoon with the arctic front. Not surprising given how they handled the last event. One would think that they would revise later today with how it looks right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Full winter furry on the high ridges of WV . Imagine standing on the Spruce Knob Observatory Saturday night. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=38.688725613296725&lon=-79.53620910644531&site=lwx&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 StnID: kdca Profile Thermal Adjust: 0.0 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Average Hourly Sounding: NO Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF S%| I%| L% ============================================================================================================================ 120210/0900Z 3 25003KT 32.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 120210/1200Z 6 VRB02KT 30.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 120210/1500Z 9 VRB01KT 40.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 120210/1800Z 12 21003KT 46.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120210/2100Z 15 VRB02KT 44.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 120211/0000Z 18 VRB00KT 39.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0|100 120211/0300Z 21 VRB02KT 38.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0| 0 120211/0600Z 24 04003KT 39.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120211/0900Z 27 01005KT 37.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.055 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 0| 0|100 120211/1200Z 30 35007KT 35.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 0| 0|100 120211/1500Z 33 33009KT 38.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 0| 0| 0 120211/1800Z 36 33009KT 41.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120211/2100Z 39 33008KT 40.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 120212/0000Z 42 31018KT 31.5F SNOW 15:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 15:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 100| 0| 0 120212/0300Z 45 33021KT 25.7F SNOW 21:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 17:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0 120212/0600Z 48 33018KT 20.8F SNOW 22:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 19:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Darn this snow, it drives me to make maps. 06z GFS and NAM continue to show boundary layer troubles up through northern MD. Based off the models, there's likely no stickage for the lower elevations until at least 09z unless rates are better and/or models are too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Of course, right after I post that... Come on now, Berk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Of course, right after I post that... Come on now, Berk. Sad that if sbos posts another map, I'd take that more seriously than the local JB's. Although on the positive side, it is put together nicely. He probably did well in science fairs as a kid. Berk isn't a met though I think he's a legitimate met, just an unemployed one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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