MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Judging from the 850 low path, the surface depiction would argue for even closer to the coast... I still think the gfs is sorting things out a bit, but better than the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 How are SR's analyzed/done? 00z GFS at 48 is snow, temps around 30, and 850s of -9c at 48 and -12c at 51. also, per h7, there is some UVV action from hrs 45 to 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I sometimes find those 500 mb to be a bit of a mystery, but the energy swinging through on sat looks better, to me. Seems to still be quite a bit of variability from run to run. Who knows what this looks like tomorrow. Sure would be nice to get those temps down a few degrees just a bit sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The qpf with the trailing vort precip is looking good this run, but is just a bit south. Let's go for mitch's undeniable trend north. Works out well for me...runs right through central VA. Surface temps are cold enough around hr 48 and that is when the bulk of the precip moves through. You're probably right as far as the north trend goes, though. I'm just looking for RIC to report anything more than a T this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I sometimes find those 500 mb to be a bit of a mystery, but the energy swinging through on sat looks better, to me. Seems to still be quite a bit of variability from run to run. Who knows what this looks like tomorrow. Sure would be nice to get those temps down a few degrees just a bit sooner. I can't remember another winter where in mid feb with a slp bombing off the coast we had bl issues like this... They're screwing us out of a moderate event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Judging from the 850 low path, the surface depiction would argue for even closer to the coast... I still think the gfs is sorting things out a bit, but better than the nam there's pretty good consensus on the low track around here at this point.. it's not going ot hit us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 there's pretty good consensus on the low track around here at this point.. it's not going ot hit us It is close enough to toss some more moisture back our way, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I can't remember another winter where in mid feb with a slp bombing off the coast we had bl issues like this... They're screwing us out of a moderate event the low doesnt really bomb initially.. not till it gets up to se of new england and long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 It is close enough to toss some more moisture back our way, though. it enhances a little.. not much. a lot of that precip is not directly related to the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 millz, regarding your post you deleted there is a diff on this run of the nam and gfs but im not sure it's that important. im talking more generally where the low forms and then moves on various runs of late. the front is going to impede its west movement no matter what imo. there's only so much we can get out of it especially with it in its formative stages at the point it passes.. not to mention phases often happen late so who knows if it will even look as "good" as models show right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 It is close enough to toss some more moisture back our way, though. Phin Tom T on channel 11 just said you could get 1-3" storm totals. He is usually conservative and the best forecaster in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Ian or Matt will you be up to do Euro pbp?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Ian or Matt will you be up to do Euro pbp?. i wont .. i like going to bed as it starts then judging how good it is by how many more posts are in the thread in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 In a Nutshell there you have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Ian or Matt will you be up to do Euro pbp?. i'll stay up.... T minus 30 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOS Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Hello Guys... and gals...newbie to this site.....but have been watching for a long time.....just signed up.....love watching the threads and hoping for some winter wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 DT rockin the 2-4" for DC and Balt....why does he seem like a weenie lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 DT rockin the 2-4" for DC and Balt....why does he seem like a weenie lately? Was just about to post.... He seems to think all our qpf falls as snow and sticks immediately... Bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 DT rockin the 2-4" for DC and Balt....why does he seem like a weenie lately? Good teacher....terrible forecaster. Anyway, the best shot for the metros is likely to be with the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 euro says next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I take it the Euro isnt very interesting...New England thread says the southern vort screws them, just .20-.35 precip, so my guess is probably much of the same down here, .1-.2 or whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I take it the Euro isnt very interesting...New England thread says the southern vort screws them, just .20-.35 precip, so my guess is probably much of the same down here, .1-.2 or whatever. closer to the 1st number Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 No but i was hoping that we would get more than .10 total from the first part and the vort pass. we do...probably at least 0.12" or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 True, but unless something changes it seems like even if it snows it will be hard to have stickage on the streets. Well a few nights in the teens/20s will certainly help with ground temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 True, but unless something changes it seems like even if it snows it will be hard to have stickage on the streets. we need a real airmass/storm....we may see some -SN/snowshowers at points through Wednesday....but it is unlikely to amount to much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 we have about 5 weeks left here in the immediate metro areas.... In winters such as this one, did you notice any anomalous period of time? I remember a while back talking to you about this, and a few others, and I believe some of these styled winters tended to have something ~ Feb 20 and again March 10-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 In winters such as this one, did you notice any anomalous period of time? I remember a while back talking to you about this, and a few others, and I believe some of these styled winters tended to have something ~ Feb 20 and again March 10-15. I guess it depends how you define this type of winter....and where the storms occurred I kind of lump this winter in with the torch winters of the past that were either ninas or nina - like (neutral after nina)...I included 1971 and 1975 even though they werent quite as torchy from beginning to end 1889, 1949, 1971, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1996, 1998, 2001, 2007 1889, 1949 both had moderate mid to late march storms and 1975 had the good interior one 1973, 1974, 1996, 2001, 2007 were pretty much shutouts after 2/15 though there may have been something interior 1971 (2/15-2/25) and 1998 (2/25 - 3/15) were the only 2 that had good wintry periods in late season and this pretty much lines up with my thinking from here on out 15% - we get a period with multiple 3"+ events in DC metro or two separate 3"+ events without the "good" period 20% - we get one 3"+ in immediate DC metro, and interior sees at least one 25% - we get shutout other than a minor cartop/grassy event or 2 but interior gets a decent event (widespread 4"+) 40% - virtual shutout...maybe a cartop coating for DC metro, and interior at best gets a couple localized 1-2" like we just saw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Good stuff. Assuming the MJO continues to propagate and ENSO doesn't do anything drastic, there is some real potential for some very warm periods in March. There are two possible issues for warmth: 1. Shortening wavelengths may keep a trough near the East Coast late in the month (Alaskan / PAC NW trough = East Coast trough) 2. Reemergence of polar blocking with the state of the sun. Could be a weird look to the monthly anomaly where like the Mid-Atlantic is on either side of normal while New England and the South are definitely above normal. Just speculating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Good stuff. Assuming the MJO continues to propagate and ENSO doesn't do anything drastic, there is some real potential for some very warm periods in March. There are two possible issues for warmth: 1. Shortening wavelengths may keep a trough near the East Coast late in the month (Alaskan / PAC NW trough = East Coast trough) 2. Reemergence of polar blocking with the state of the sun. Could be a weird look to the monthly anomaly where like the Mid-Atlantic is on either side of normal while New England and the South are definitely above normal. Just speculating... I definitely would lean warm as well....You do get some nasty late season cold fronts but they are so shortlived it is in the 60s, 48 hours later.....I remember in March 2002 we got a couple nasty air masses late in the season and it was cold as sh-it at night probably because of the drought....Late March brought a -20 departure air mass. which was colder wrt normal than we had seen all winter I'm looking for 1 of 2 things in March/April that would make it cool...a heat wave of mid to upper 80s followed by a snowstorm a few days later (probably interior).....and/or a massive epic noreaster which would also probably be an interior event....but a huge QPF event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I definitely would lean warm as well....You do get some nasty late season cold fronts but they are so shortlived it is in the 60s, 48 hours later.....I remember in March 2002 we got a couple nasty air masses late in the season and it was cold as sh-it at night probably because of the drought....Late March brought a -20 departure air mass. which was colder wrt normal than we had seen all winter I'm looking for 1 of 2 things in March/April that would make it cool...a heat wave of mid to upper 80s followed by a snowstorm a few days later (probably interior).....and/or a massive epic noreaster which would also probably be an interior event....but a huge QPF event I could definitely see that happening this March. Some impressive warm departures very close to a late-season winter storm. The late March negatives make sense too with the rising averages. There is usually that last cold shot in early April too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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