mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 essentially over after 36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Warm run up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 i think maybe the westward move of coastal precip is over and it might shift back east a bit in future runs. Strike one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Warm run up the coast. don't worry, there will be claims of 3-10" from some up north regardless of course the GFS will be 1/3 the qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 NIce stripe of QPF from DC to BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Strike one we could get 3/4" qpf, but it would still be mostly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 we could get 3/4" qpf, but it would still be mostly rain Strike one seemed more humble than I'm so awesome... I'm only looking at the low ddweatherman is still hoping will impact us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 at 12z NAM..i was thinking of maybe road trip to New England would be good for DC folks...now...not even a drive is going would do much good. your better off driving to Western MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 At least the NAM is showing the snow showers the GFS was hinting at in the cold air on saturday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Strike one seemed more humble than I'm so awesome... I'm only looking at the low ddweatherman is still hoping will impact us nah i just wanted some precip enhacement, but whatever our only hope is cooler sfc temps with our solid NAM qpf to squeeze out a miracle inch and for other models to pick up on the saturday evening gfs miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 actually, NAM has those snow showers over us for 3-3 hr panels, so that seems like our best shot as some have said I believe at least it will be cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 actually, NAM has those snow showers over us for 3-3 hr panels, so that seems like our best shot as some have said I believe at least it will be cold enough Is the 33 hr panel surface temp that warm? At least it is a better time. Just wondering if the BL is that far above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Is the 33 hr panel surface temp that warm? At least it is a better time. Just wondering if the BL is that far above freezing. The NAM is running really warm, and yes sfc temps at 33 are around 35.5 in Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Is the 33 hr panel surface temp that warm? At least it is a better time. Just wondering if the BL is that far above freezing. The freezing line is parallel to the VA/ WV border at 33hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The NAM is running really warm, and yes sfc temps at 33 are around 35.5 in Baltimore. For yesterdays non event I was at 43 when the precip started and it took 3 hours to overcome that BL and go to mostly snow at my house. I think 850s were similar but time of day was a killer. Perhaps we'll do better at that time of day. I ended with a slushy coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The freezing line is parallel to the VA/ WV border at 33hr. I have learned the power of the BL. LWX had me at SNOW 100 percent until it started raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Time of day is one helping aspect of this one. Another very marginal event it would seem. On saturday, the snow fell primarily after 4pm. Yesterday it fell primarily from about 1 to 5 pm. We had good snowfall here yesterday, comparable to sat., but the result was much different. Maybe we sneak in a degree or two under guidance, no sun to deal with, and get a small event. I don't think anyone expects anything much. Maybe we at least get a taste of snow here and there before it mercifully ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I see some signs from the NAM that this shortwave that ushers in an arctic front will overperform. The deep moisture at 700 mb is positioned over our area for over 12 hours and during the entire time, the 850 mb layer is safely below freezing. Also of note the energetic 500 mb trough becomes negatively tilted after sunset Saturday. Whatever falls Friday night into Saturday will probably be slushy at best. After sunset Saturday evening, maybe we can get dusting to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Hmm 0z GFS... 1028 High over the lakes, 1002 SLP just east of ORF.... -6 850's, NW wind at surface... .2 qpf through 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Hmm 0z GFS... 1028 High over the lakes, 1002 SLP just east of ORF.... -6 850's, NW wind at surface... .2 qpf through 36 Yeah GFS still kinda warm at the surface but that wind should cool us off a bit, interesting thing is the heavier qpf barely misses baltimore, and the city squeaks out .3ish thru 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GFS paints a nice QPF stripe from DC to BWI just like the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The surface is still pretty warm at 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GFS has the precip from the vort, but more to the south than NAM that remains our only shot of seeing real, frozen snow falling from the sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The surface is still pretty warm at 42. The precip is gone by that time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I don't really understand why we due N winds, a high to the NW and a slp bombing in NE look at the big High Pressure off the Atlantic coast..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Serious cold push after the storm passes. Gets the freezing line down to the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The qpf with the trailing vort precip is looking good this run, but is just a bit south. Let's go for mitch's undeniable trend north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The surface is still pretty warm at 42. There could be a quick shot of accumulating snow around sunset on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks like .35 qpf for DC-BWI... Haven't analyzed how much of that is frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks like .35 qpf for DC-BWI... Haven't analyzed how much of that is frozen the smaller part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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