mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 for exercise purposes only, but the GFS looks like it's moving toward something better than 12Z EDIT: it did through 39, now at 42 not so sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 for exercise purposes only, but the GFS looks like it's moving toward something better than 12Z good thing this was exercise purposes only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 nah, never mind on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 i might Our B&B is booked this weekend -- but if you or anyone else makes it up into this area this weekend let me know, I'll buy a round of drinks (or two). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 good thing this was exercise purposes only. the surface was noticeably colder so I thought, hey, that's diff, then the next panel showed it moving ENE meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 the surface was noticeably colder so I thought, hey, that's diff, then the next panel showed it moving ENE meh i think maybe the westward move of coastal precip is over and it might shift back east a bit in future runs. this run keys more heavily on the eastern "barrel" of the low. at least there's still some light stuff ot the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 the surface was noticeably colder so I thought, hey, that's diff, then the next panel showed it moving ENE meh Well it's still holding onto the Saturday evening thump.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Well it's still holding onto the Saturday evening thump.. oh winter 11-12.. what you've lowered us to. bullseye! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20120209/18/gfs_namer_054_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 oh winter 11-12.. what you've lowered us to. bullseye! http://mag.ncep.noaa...mslp_precip.gif Not as good on this run anyway-- more of it comes before 0Z than on the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Well it's still holding onto the Saturday evening thump.. Its sad when less than an inch is a thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 that might be our cartopper..though the euro doesnt seem to agree We must keep #faithintheflakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 that might be our cartopper..though the euro doesnt seem to agree It is there, but it is lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Henry Marusity's new map is the most loltastic thing i have seen this winter. It is in the banter thread for those that care to laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Henry Marusity's new map is the most loltastic thing i have seen this winter. It is in the banter thread for those that care to laugh. Cantore was talking up a significant event around VA to Maine earlier today. I think a lot of these national guys don't understand how hard it is to get a good snow in this area. Of course, Henry is probanbly just hyping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Cantore was talking up a significant event around VA to Maine earlier today. I think a lot of these national guys don't understand how hard it is to get a good snow in this area. Of course, Henry is probanbly just hyping. I agree, i was watching Fox news earlier today with my GF Maria Molina on and she was saying it could be the biggest storm of the winter on the EC and i was thinking what the hell. But i don't understand how Henry keeps his job posting a map showing Baltimore will get 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 that might be our cartopper..though the euro doesnt seem to agree Getting even cartopper snow from a northern stream vort under cold advection is tough but still migh be a beter chance than with the actual low that scoots by to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 this is rain with some slush mixed in, no more, no less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks like 0.25 QPF on the 21z SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks like 0.25 QPF on the 21z SREFs I can't even remember what 15z showed... Is thaf up or down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I can't even remember what 15z showed... Is thaf up or down Its over a 24 hr period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 h5 energy was in NE WI on 18z at 21 hrs. On 00z at 15 hrs, its in SW MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 h5 energy was in NE WI on 18z at 21 hrs. On 00z at 15 hrs, its in SW MN The 21Z sref temps are pretty warm and the probability of .25 is 30-50 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 The first step is your posts start disappearing. The next step is 5posted. Keep that in mind when you post in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 at 27 hrs, NAM has a Great Lakes low showing up....the ultimate kiss of death for our region http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Paramℑ=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20120210%2F00%2Fnam_namer_024_10m_wnd_precip.gif&fcast=024&imagesurls=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=02%2F10%2F2012+00UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 NW VA into C MD 0.25 QPF through 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 as usual..the models started trending the wrong way again as soon as they started trending the right way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 essentially over after 36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Warm run up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 i think maybe the westward move of coastal precip is over and it might shift back east a bit in future runs. Strike one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Warm run up the coast. don't worry, there will be claims of 3-10" from some up north regardless of course the GFS will be 1/3 the qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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