aldie 22 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Sun def trying to come through that cloud layer, Leesburg, no? A few flurries here in Paeonian Springs. I would say it is very bright out but no sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 fixed. That's better. Let's hope this squall line can replenish whatever has melted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 If i were to use a line of summer storms as my guide I would say that the development would be pretty much over or just east of me...just past the mountains then intensifies as it moves east...pretty standard thunderstorm route in my 8 years here...I say it happens this does feel a bit like watching storms fire over the higher terrain and hoping they get organized as they move east. i don't see any reason we won't see an expansion of precipitation along that line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 it is forming the last few images...look at 16:49...we will have to see how well it develops or not looks like some good convective development on visible sat. too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Would be nice if that line extends down to RIC. I looked at the HRRR and the sim radar looks to be that way. Temps are the question down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 draw a line from Cumberland MD to Bryce Mountain...that's the line to watch and see if it develops yup you're right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 it's kind of nice to see it popping up now..... Agree...the mo west the mo better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 it's kind of nice to see it popping up now..... yup, radar improving each scan....i'm liking the inverted trough for this evening that you mentioned earlier too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 the first band rain or snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spud Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 just got a new weather station. Is 38.6 a correct reading near bethesda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 the first band rain or snow? i think anything under good rates will be all snow. freezing levels around 960 mb right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I dunno?... snow in fairfax per cwg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Wind chill tonight are going to be near zero or single digits tonight... we haven't felt that since 2 winters ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Its snow...centreville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 It's east-west oriented though?...like a norlun? yup..could be wrong but that's what i'm thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I dunno?... Prob snow. my precip finally turned over with this last band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Studying the CAA aloft and some of the fronto... watch this area for development soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 It's east-west oriented though?...like a norlun? Are we talking about the 12 to 15 hr time period on the 12z GFS? Also, I don't think we get norluns down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Snow here last nights coating melted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Band is firing up right now out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Are we talking about the 12 to 15 hr time period on the 12z GFS? Also, I don't think we get norluns down here? Yes, most of the models do show a norlun trough rotating down from PA during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Thanks SBoswx....Unrelated, did you hear...The Giants won the super bowl All the jersey people at school remind me every second of my waking life... including my Giants roomate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Are we talking about the 12 to 15 hr time period on the 12z GFS? Also, I don't think we get norluns down here? you can get them anywhere they're just not very common around here. it's not a norlun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Yes, most of the models do show a norlun trough rotating down from PA during that time. Ah thanks. QPF field looked light, but that's to be expected I guess. Would be nice to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 you can get them anywhere they're just not very common around here. it's not a norlun. Ian is right, it's not correct to call it a norlun (its missing a few of the necessary features), so i stand corrected, its a surface trough which is enhancing convergence Edit: (for reference) Five criteria must be met to be considered a NORLUN trough. They are: T1-T5 (approx. 500 feet AGL to 7000 feet AGL [~950 mb to 800 mb for the east coast]) temperature difference is 10C or greater (Basically states that there has to be instability in the low levels of the atmosphere) Boundary layer RH must be greater than 50% with a wind component from off the ocean on one side of the trough (Basically states that you need a decent amount of boundary layer moisture; the wind from the ocean just helps to maintain this moisture) 500 mb positive vorticity advection is observed with associated 700 mb vertical velocity values (This enhances upward vertical motion and increases the depth of the unstable layer) trough axis is expected to be nearly stationary for at least 6 hours. 850 mb flow is very weak or is parallel to the surface trough (Allows snow squalls to continually traverse the same areas) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 What is meant to be a lake effect product, actually works well for this situation... check out the convergence area denoted in red Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 35 degrees with rain and snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 just got a new weather station. Is 38.6 a correct reading near bethesda? Probably ok, depends a lot on where you site it. Here's another station in Bethesda: http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KMDCHEVY2&day=11&month=02&year=2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 35/33 Light snow Herndon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Still light snow in SW Gaithersburg, though the snow that had accumulated last night is now fully melted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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