Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I think he was only referring to precip from the coastal system. Once the arctic front sweeps through the les maching will kick in. If the trajectory sets up right, deep creek area might get more than a foot. There's some 500 energry rotating through after the coastal moves away that will probably enhance the snowfall because of the convective nature of the squalls, warm lake temps, and the orographics. It's actually quite tempting to take a drive out there. It could be a pretty good event. Maybe Phin will lend me his keys in exchange for a 30 pack? it's not even really precip from thec coastal sys around here.. it's moisture with the southern wave getting advected north as the streams try to come closer together. outside a nam run i dont think we've really gotten anything from the coastal except perhaps some enhancement due to wind flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 it's not even really precip from thec coastal sys around here.. it's moisture with the southern wave getting advected north as the streams try to come closer together. outside a nam run i dont think we've really gotten anything from the coastal except perhaps some enhancement due to wind flow. Bad choice of words on my part. I was lumping it all pre-front precip together and shouldn't have used the C word. What do you make of the chunk of energy that moves through late sat/sun? GFS shows some flurries at the very least. Going to be very cold so it could be squally. Just grasping at straws but maybe we score a little powder that sticks to the streets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 OMGZ 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 NAM doing something slightly different this time... killing Fri night, but maybe juicing it up a bit further west on Sat? Yes, yes, NAM, 18Z run, go ahead and jump on me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Bad choice of words on my part. I was lumping it all pre-front precip together and shouldn't have used the C word. What do you make of the chunk of energy that moves through late sat/sun? GFS shows some flurries at the very least. Going to be very cold so it could be squally. Just grasping at straws but maybe we score a little powder that sticks to the streets. not sure.. models vary on it a bit at least. flurries/snow showers seem like a safe call for now. should feel wintry at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Kicks east at 48...looked good til then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 God the NAM is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 NAM doing something slightly different this time... killing Fri night, but maybe juicing it up a bit further west on Sat? Yes, yes, NAM, 18Z run, go ahead and jump on me... The nam actually looks a little worse on the 18Z run. Less precip over a long period....now less than .25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Kicks east at 48...looked good til then Yeah this run opens some doors for us, another very close run for us on the NAM, which makes us all come back at 0z for more with some new upper air data by then. See initially it takes away some of our front end stuff, but then the low is actually W of last run, a potential trade off for the better, we shall see. As phin said, its so dawgone close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 SNE gets raked... with rain. Lock it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The nam actually looks a little worse on the 18Z run. Less precip over a long period....now less than .25" that's what I saw, but whatever Euro will rule down here (which happens to be essentially what the NAM depicts on this run I would say) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The nam actually looks a little worse on the 18Z run. Less precip over a long period....now less than .25" Looking like it will be a near miss scenario. A new way to get screwed this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 it's cool that every run of the nam we pretend the nam is good .. just wait till it backs off on coastal associated precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 SNE gets raked... with rain. Lock it in! again, looking at the surface maps, it really does look like rain for at least half of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Looking like it will be a near miss scenario. A new way to get screwed this winter. It is our first nads storm of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 it's cool that every run of the nam we pretend the nam is good .. just wait till it backs off on coastal associated precip It isn't any good for this event so I hope no one is hugging it now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 let's wait for the fresh data at 0z. Agreed, it is a weenie saying but Easternuswx over in the CPA thread says 18z's always suck then 0z is better than 12z which was great but after 0z 6z sucks. I don't know if hes right at all about that, as its weenieish, but I'm interested to see what new data has to say on our s/w and the jet stream wrt phasing and the lows intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 remember the maine -- the state.. that's where the snow will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 let's wait for the fresh data at 0z. We should probably use the SREFs now...I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Ian/Randy...want to go to WV/MD this weekend?...they should be under a snow hose I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 not sure.. models vary on it a bit at least. flurries/snow showers seem like a safe call for now. should feel wintry at least. That's the precip I'm counting on, since Friday night looks like a repeat of Saturday and yesterday at best. Unfortunately, Euro shredded it over the Appalachians which is probably correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 that southern storm just gets deflected by the northern stream a wee bit too early for us http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F09%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Ian/Randy...want to go to WV/MD this weekend?...they should be under a snow hose I think dogsitting.. i could bring him along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Ian/Randy...want to go to WV/MD this weekend?...they should be under a snow hose I think Somebody should go out there this weekend. It's a really good setup for deep creek. Near perfect nw trajectory and some added lift from h5 energy. Lakes temps are like 100 degrees above normal too. There might be thunderstorms and tornados. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Somebody should go out there this weekend. It's a really good setup for deep creek. Near perfect nw trajectory and some added lift from h5 energy. Lakes temps are like 100 degrees above normal too. There might be thunderstorms and tornados. i might Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 If it's worth anything, the srefs are wetter at 15z than they were at 9z, and some of the ind members look good. HPC also has slight risk of 4 inch plus just to my NW. I don't know if anyone trusts the srefs. Sometimes it seems that people here trust the Euro along with the models that show the worst scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It would seem that the euro ens. mean is a touch closer to the coast of NC with the low at 48. That's kinda splitting hairs though. One, its only slightly closer, two, all I can see is the mean, and three, the graphics aren't that great and with no precip, so ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 If it's worth anything, the srefs are wetter at 15z than they were at 9z, and some of the ind members look good. HPC also has slight risk of 4 inch plus just to my NW. I don't know if anyone trusts the srefs. Sometimes it seems that people here trust the Euro along with the models that show the worst scenario. I trust the Euro because it's usually right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 i might Keep an eye in the oh valley saturday afternoon after the front passes. If the streamers are setting up nicely, there is going to be a period of really heavy snow and wind when the h5 energy rotates through on sunday. I'm half tempted myself. We'll see how it shakes out but it really looks like the potential is there for an exceptional setup for garrett. It won't be a prolonged event but there could be some excellent rates and alot of blowing around. back on topic: I really don't see how we get anything more than .25" of precip and that's prob a stretch. Unless I'm missing something, there is really no mechanism for the precip shield associated with the coastal system to spread up this far and thats the only way we'll get some good rates. The disorganized southern wave is all we can really hope to produce and producing more than a quarter inch of liquid seems like a serious longshot. Just like with the vort yesterday, the precip won't be organized enough to help bl temps. If I lived up in northern md I would consider getting an inch or 2 at best to stick but I'll probably do as well as I did yesterday imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Keep an eye in the oh valley saturday afternoon after the front passes. If the streamers are setting up nicely, there is going to be a period of really heavy snow and wind when the h5 energy rotates through on sunday. I'm half tempted myself. We'll see how it shakes out but it really looks like the potential is there for an exceptional setup for garrett. It won't be a prolonged event but there could be some excellent rates and alot of blowing around. back on topic: I really don't see how we get anything more than .25" of precip and that's prob a stretch. Unless I'm missing something, there is really no mechanism for the precip shield associated with the coastal system to spread up this far and thats the only way we'll get some good rates. The disorganized southern wave is all we can really hope to produce and producing more than a quarter inch of liquid seems like a serious longshot. Just like with the vort yesterday, the precip won't be organized enough to help bl temps. If I lived up in northern md I would consider getting an inch or 2 at best to stick but I'll probably do as well as I did yesterday imby. That's why what the 12Z GFS depicted for Saturday evening is the best thing that's been on any model within 60 hours this winter- finally have cold surface temps with a burst of precip. That extent of precip has no support from other models though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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