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Weekend Disco/Obs Thread


stormtracker

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Temps did not warm as much as expected today. Topped out around 38/39. Surfaces are colder for sure this time compared to last Sat.

these threads are so predictable.. i swear they're run on loops.

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wow, GFS is dry

barely .1" qpf in 24 hrs

a lot of forecasts will bust if that verifies (which we know it will)

Its time to nowcast mitch, either it happens or not, whatever, radar isnt terrible and there are some signs that the BL isn't super dense so we could be fine. Plus I think the qpf with the squalls will be more, the vort is kinda vigorous just my .02

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Its time to nowcast mitch, either it happens or not, whatever, radar isnt terrible and there are some signs that the BL isn't super dense so we could be fine. Plus I think the qpf with the squalls will be more, the vort is kinda vigorous just my .02

undoubtedly, our only hope is the vort, and the GFS looks nice with that

I was thinking more of those forecasts of several inches in the mts

only the high peaks will have a chance at over 3" IF GFS verifies

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undoubtedly, our only hope is the vort, and the GFS looks nice with that

I was thinking more of those forecasts of several inches in the mts

only the high peaks will have a chance at over 3" IF GFS verifies

Either lake-effect snow doesn't exist anymore or you're completely missing that aspect of the storm.

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undoubtedly, our only hope is the vort, and the GFS looks nice with that

I was thinking more of those forecasts of several inches in the mts

only the high peaks will have a chance at over 3" IF GFS verifies

Ahh the heck with it, time to weenie it out and hope for snow, we have nothing to lose. Our map says a mix here with some from the vort, but as bob pointed out the BL is really shallow so theres hope when that precip redevelops in our area later in the evening.

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Seeing reports of snow in mrb and damascus is a good indication of how shallow the warm bl is. It's 41 in mrb and probably 42-43 in damascus. Impressive.

Unfortunately my thermometer is on the fritz, but I was thinking when I got home that it felt way to warm for snow. Inwas very surprised to look out the window and see flakes flying.

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Either lake-effect snow doesn't exist anymore or you're completely missing that aspect of the storm.

can you read?

I said only the the highest peaks will get over 3"

Garrett County has the highest peaks in the State and they get the LES, with essentially the whole county on the Allegheny Plateau

give me a break

yeah, I know, WV, but again, the highest peaks

p.s. you do understand I was discussing the GFS, don't you?

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F10%2F2012+18UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p48&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=048&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

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Unfortunately my thermometer is on the fritz, but I was thinking when I got home that it felt way to warm for snow. Inwas very surprised to look out the window and see flakes flying.

Federick is 41 and G-burg is at 43. I think westminster is 39 or so. It is significant to see snow with those kind of surface temps. The general rule of thumb is all rain until it hits 38. I'm not sure when the last time I saw snow with surface temps in the 40's.

Petersburg dropped from 41-37 in short order. I never really expected to see anything stick until after the front moves through but it would be a nice surprise to at least see snow falling from the sky before I go to bed.

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can you read?

I said only the the highest peaks will get over 3"

Garrett County has the highest peaks in the State and they get the LES, with essentially the whole county on the Allegheny Plateau

give me a break

yeah, I know, WV, but again, the highest peaks

It's not only the highest peaks that get hit with lake-effect. Anywhere that has appreciable orographic enhancement will be able to squeeze out some moisture on the windward sides.

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