Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Seeing reports of snow in mrb and damascus is a good indication of how shallow the warm bl is. It's 41 in mrb and probably 42-43 in damascus. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Snowing at dolly sods, Whitegrass, 7 springs, Wisp, 68 @ keysers ridge, Etc. Won't be surprised if some of the spots see more than a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 wow, GFS is dry barely .1" qpf in 24 hrs a lot of forecasts will bust if that verifies (which we know it will) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Had all rain here with that small shower that passed thru. Knocked the temp down to 40 though (from 47) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 wow, GFS is dry barely .1" qpf in 24 hrs a lot of forecasts will bust if that verifies (which we know it will) Its time to nowcast mitch, either it happens or not, whatever, radar isnt terrible and there are some signs that the BL isn't super dense so we could be fine. Plus I think the qpf with the squalls will be more, the vort is kinda vigorous just my .02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Its time to nowcast mitch, either it happens or not, whatever, radar isnt terrible and there are some signs that the BL isn't super dense so we could be fine. Plus I think the qpf with the squalls will be more, the vort is kinda vigorous just my .02 undoubtedly, our only hope is the vort, and the GFS looks nice with that I was thinking more of those forecasts of several inches in the mts only the high peaks will have a chance at over 3" IF GFS verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 undoubtedly, our only hope is the vort, and the GFS looks nice with that I was thinking more of those forecasts of several inches in the mts only the high peaks will have a chance at over 3" IF GFS verifies Either lake-effect snow doesn't exist anymore or you're completely missing that aspect of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 undoubtedly, our only hope is the vort, and the GFS looks nice with that I was thinking more of those forecasts of several inches in the mts only the high peaks will have a chance at over 3" IF GFS verifies Ahh the heck with it, time to weenie it out and hope for snow, we have nothing to lose. Our map says a mix here with some from the vort, but as bob pointed out the BL is really shallow so theres hope when that precip redevelops in our area later in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'm still holding on to a few patchs of snow from the last event. Would be the first time this winter that snow from one event comingled with snow from the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Seeing reports of snow in mrb and damascus is a good indication of how shallow the warm bl is. It's 41 in mrb and probably 42-43 in damascus. Impressive. Unfortunately my thermometer is on the fritz, but I was thinking when I got home that it felt way to warm for snow. Inwas very surprised to look out the window and see flakes flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 39/26 on my home weather station with light snow reported by the mrs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Either lake-effect snow doesn't exist anymore or you're completely missing that aspect of the storm. can you read? I said only the the highest peaks will get over 3" Garrett County has the highest peaks in the State and they get the LES, with essentially the whole county on the Allegheny Plateau give me a break yeah, I know, WV, but again, the highest peaks p.s. you do understand I was discussing the GFS, don't you? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F10%2F2012+18UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p48&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=048&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Unfortunately my thermometer is on the fritz, but I was thinking when I got home that it felt way to warm for snow. Inwas very surprised to look out the window and see flakes flying. Federick is 41 and G-burg is at 43. I think westminster is 39 or so. It is significant to see snow with those kind of surface temps. The general rule of thumb is all rain until it hits 38. I'm not sure when the last time I saw snow with surface temps in the 40's. Petersburg dropped from 41-37 in short order. I never really expected to see anything stick until after the front moves through but it would be a nice surprise to at least see snow falling from the sky before I go to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergeek Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 WTOP.COM is reporting a WWA for DC and surrounding areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Had all rain here with that small shower that passed thru. Knocked the temp down to 40 though (from 47) Yeah. That was a neat benefit from it. went to 43 from 47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 can you read? I said only the the highest peaks will get over 3" Garrett County has the highest peaks in the State and they get the LES, with essentially the whole county on the Allegheny Plateau give me a break yeah, I know, WV, but again, the highest peaks It's not only the highest peaks that get hit with lake-effect. Anywhere that has appreciable orographic enhancement will be able to squeeze out some moisture on the windward sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The flurries out here have stopped. Would love to get one of the lake effect streaks over me tomorrow evening. They are good for a quick inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Light snow now in Hagerstown. 38/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 WTOP.COM is reporting a WWA for DC and surrounding areas? Not on the lwx site yet, unless WTOP is talking about the wwa N/W of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Light snow here. Started with a temp of 39.5 now down to 37.7. Naturally as soon as snow starts, the radar starts looking like a prune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 It's not only the highest peaks that get hit with lake-effect. Anywhere that has appreciable orographic enhancement will be able to squeeze out some moisture on the windward sides. maybe you missed my edit my original post was referring to the GFS run (reread) I posted the 48 hr qpf total and no one, even in the mts, was out of the 25.-.5 range considering surface temps are warm to start everywhere, including the highest peaks, I fail to see where my statement deserved the derogatory tone from you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 According to SPC, the 540 line is running WSW to ENE from Leesburg to Columbia to just north of BWI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 wow, GFS is dry barely .1" qpf in 24 hrs a lot of forecasts will bust if that verifies (which we know it will) Look at the 36, it has your area firmly over 0.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 37 here, sticking to paved surfaces... The rain that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 maybe you missed my edit my original post was referring to the GFS run (reread) I posted the 48 hr qpf total and no one, even in the mts, was out of the 25.-.5 range considering surface temps are warm to start everywhere, including the highest peaks, I fail to see where my statement deserved the derogatory tone from you Because the GFS is good on picking up lake-effect and the resulting QPF... Also, they'll have better ratios to work with up in the mountain. EDIT: Point of the matter is what the heck are you doing using the GFS to figure out a lake-effect scenario when the hi-res models (or even the NAM) will handle it much better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Virga has commenced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This is what a couple of cool days, cold nights, a cloudy day, and snow at 5 pm can do. Wed it snowed here at a good clip for 4 hours before it stuck to anything. It has been snowing for less than an hour and the ground is already getting white. Edit: It is cool to note that KOKV is reporting rain. I'm only about 200 feet higher, and 10 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Flurries/light snow falling. 36.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 back to all snow...mulch is turning white...32/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownerd Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Flurries have turned to a lighter snow, down to 34.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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