mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 that GL low is gunna' bollux up some forecasts in the NE I think pretty strong on the 18Z NAM (if it's right) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 18z sim radar (hrs 12 an 15) shows some precip around late late tonight... freezing line back near Apps... flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 18hrs on the NAM looks OK to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 that's good.. i know the former wmar person is talking about bust potential in the se if the coastal gives more than currently anticipated. i know some of it is just ease of explanation tho i think people are generally receptive to learning. but take all the rain after lee.. the big days were ones in which "lee" was already well to our northeast even if it helped the upper trough orientation/strength. yet everyone called it flooding from lee. A few of our flood events are like that. I've tried to explain the reality to friends or co-workers and all that happens is that I come across as petty. I honestly think people like being able to say, "Remember the time we got hit by ______!" Everyone loves being "that guy." I'm sorry, my fault I always associate JB w/Bastardi An easy mistake, and I even like the local one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 18hrs on the NAM looks OK to me This is a cooler run near the surface. If you take 975mb as a decent guide for snow, we are ok from about 9z forward to the end of the first part of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 vort swinging through ky is stronger vs same period on 12z run. a real inch of snow is on the way. i can feel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This is a cooler run near the surface. If you take 975mb as a decent guide for snow, we are ok from about 9z forward to the end of the first part of the storm. yeah, but (always a "but" this year) after 12Z, it warms back above 32 (compare 18hrs to 21 and 24 hrs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 vort swinging through ky is stronger vs same period on 12z run. a real inch of snow is on the way. i can feel it. ya' beat me to it Bob, I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This is a cooler run near the surface. If you take 975mb as a decent guide for snow, we are ok from about 9z forward to the end of the first part of the storm. Not sure at 24 hrs... doesn't look like much with the h5 energy coming in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 yeah, but (always a "but" this year) after 12Z, it warms back above 32 (compare 18hrs to 21 and 24 hrs) Ahh I don't know so much about the legitimacy of it rising back up until after the precip falls, nonetheless I'd agree with MN it'd be snow after 9z til the the first round of precip ends, as for part 2 I'm more impressed this run with that vort and sim rad looks good if you ask me on IWM.com at 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 yeah, but (always a "but" this year) after 12Z, it warms back above 32 (compare 18hrs to 21 and 24 hrs) Yes, we are entirely dependant on the precipitation as the cold surface air is well back. At least the time of day isn't a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Some flurries out here already. DT says 3-8 for me. I dont see it. But I like the look of the Natl radar at this point. Looks much better than Wednesday. By the way, anyone see the long range Euro storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I like the looks of the h5 at 27... but that might be a tad south o our liking in N NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Ahh I don't know so much about the legitimacy of it rising back up until after the precip falls, nonetheless I'd agree with MN it'd be snow after 9z til the the first round of precip ends, as for part 2 I'm more impressed this run with that vort and sim rad looks good if you ask me on IWM.com at 27 the precip is too light, that's why the NAM has it warming I'll defer to the NAM on that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Better hope the NAM is out to lunch. If correct, Ellenwood can move his freezing line 30 miles west... ...until Saturday eve when we get something like coating to an inch from the arctic front. It is looking more and more than any accumulation south of the M-D Line and east of Martinsburg will hold off until sunset and after sunset on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I like the looks of the h5 at 27... but that might be a tad south o our liking in N NC Ahh i'd bet it will be a few miles north of there at game time, nonetheless its a solid looking vort... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F10%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=027&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Squall line of snow moves through around 5 pm tomorrow And prob 0.05 QPF with it... weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Squall line of snow moves through around 5 pm tomorrow I've noticed the northerly batch of precip that hangs above the squall line also collapses through, would likely be snow showers, but that 30-35dbz squall would produce a bit more than .02 of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Eh, not really am improvement or a worsening. I'll take my .5" and like it. Again, at least it will "look and feel" like winter. It's only taken until the 11th of Feb to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Squall line of snow moves through around 5 pm tomorrow And prob 0.05 QPF with it... weak It is interesting that the NAM, GFS and Euro all have this N-S movement of light snow/flurries hanging around after the line moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Eh, not really am improvement or a worsening. I'll take my .5" and like it. Again, at least it will "look and feel" like winter. It's only taken until the 11th of Feb to get there. That is a Winter 11-12 victory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 It is interesting that the NAM, GFS and Euro all have this N-S movement of light snow/flurries hanging around after the line moves through. Just caught that @ hr 33 on sim. So, we get a burst of mod snow @ 30 and then some leftovers @ 33. Combined with sub freezing temps and wind.......i like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The LWX snowfall map has been updated. The only reason that I post this is that I don't think it has ever been remotely correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The LWX snowfall map has been updated. The only reason that I post this is that I don't think it has ever been remotely correct. "snowmap not in effect" ? edit: n/m now it works. they're due for their last minute over increase in snowfall.. maybe the overnight shift will give me 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 from LWX: FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE MASON- DIXON SUSPECT THAT STREAMERS WL BE MAKING IT INTO THE ERN PANHANDLE...PTNLY ALL THE WAY TO NRN SXNS OF THE CHES BAY LATE TNGT AND SAT. IT'S CONCEIVABLE THAT AREAS W/ STREAMERS COULD PICK UP 1-3" BY END OF SAT WHILE 5 MILES AWAY GETS CLOSE TO NOTHING. I'm under a WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 funny how in any other winter I would see this radar map knowing that 850 temps are around -3C, give or take, and get excited... not this year http://beta.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?enlarge=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'm under a WWA I was very shocked when i saw that, that is very very bullish for our area. I hope they are right for once this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Well it certainly looks like snow out there... Low granite cloud deck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownerd Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 It is snow flurrying in Front Royal, VA currently, although very lightly. My thermometer says 39.9 but it usually reads high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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