stormtracker Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The other thread is a mess. Let's keep it tight and focused here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Euro has started Day 1 5H http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h24&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 there's more juice to the north of the 0z run of the euro out west.. otherwise pretty similar through 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Euro has started Day 1 5H http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest This one might be easier to use than that one Mitch -- http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/120209175833527878000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 same general story.. big broad low forming of carolinas. it is a bit wetter but we're not in on the real action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Day 2 48 hr h5 EURO http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/120209180132441205000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 pretty much everyone n of c va in .1"+ area thru 54.. maybe a smidge more to come after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 the low does get its act together slightly faster offshore but the coastal precip barely scrapes the coastal carolinas then is offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 pretty much everyone n of c va in .1"+ area thru 54.. maybe a smidge more to come after? I can't access maps right now. Is there an area of heavy precip around the tidewater or thereabouts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 hard to tell how much if anything falls after 54.. .1"+ line drops south a bit in va at least. not sure how much over .1"+ that is.. maybe matt can chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 the low does get its act together slightly faster offshore but the coastal precip barely scrapes the coastal carolinas then is offshore northern and southern stream only interact to everyone's detriment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I can't access maps right now. Is there an area of heavy precip around the tidewater or thereabouts? .25" line oriented sw to ne touches the va/nc border right on the coast.. maybe another 20-40 miles east is the .5" line. it's a smidge west of 0z but pretty much within error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Nearly every single individual ensemble member on the 12z GFS was wetter at 48 hrs than the OP -- http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_12z/f48.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 hard to tell how much if anything falls after 54.. .1"+ line drops south a bit in va at least. not sure how much over .1"+ that is.. maybe matt can chime in. very little precip falls after hour 54....trace amounts.....euro is dry, warm and uninspiring as we all knew it would be....now everyone can go back to discussing the KU we are about to back into tomorrow night.......I am sure if the 18z NAM is promising, everyone will pretend the euro never even ran Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Nearly every single individual ensemble member on the 12z GFS was wetter at 48 hrs than the OP -- http://www.meteo.psu...RS_12z/f48.html They have pooer resolution so won't keep the gradients as tight. Taht might be part of the reason. At this time range, you out to use the sref more than the GEFS. The gesf are for longer range forecasts, the sref for shorter range ones as they have better resolution than the gefs though not as good as the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Nearly every single individual ensemble member on the 12z GFS was wetter at 48 hrs than the OP -- http://www.meteo.psu...RS_12z/f48.html And they're also coarser and run on an older model version... I would defer to the Operational. EDIT: Also, what Wes said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Speaking of the SREFs, on the 9z run, every member but one gives BWI 0.15"+ of QPF. Mean snow is 0.12", max snow 0.21", min snow .0". Mean rain 0.12", max 0.33", min 0.03". DC is similar in totals, but chop the snow in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Speaking of the SREFs, on the 9z run, every member but one gives BWI 0.15"+ of QPF. Mean snow is 0.12", max snow 0.21", min snow .0". Mean rain 0.12", max 0.33", min 0.03". DC is similar in totals, but chop the snow in half. IYou must mean the 15Z as teh 09Z was lighter than that. My mistake I was looking at dca. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Speaking of the SREFs, on the 9z run, every member but one gives BWI 0.15"+ of QPF. Mean snow is 0.12", max snow 0.21", min snow .0". Mean rain 0.12", max 0.33", min 0.03". DC is similar in totals, but chop the snow in half. Based on the QPF and the progression of the temperatures profiles from the 12z suite it doesn't look like anyone outside of the mountains will get more than a trace to an inch from this event... not even map-making worthy DCA doesn't look like it will get down to the freezing mark for this event, either. Unless they get some good rates at some point during the event I wouldn't expect any accumulation inside the DC metro. NW DC might get a dusting if they're lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 No, that's the 9z I was looking at. BWI and DCA precip totals are nearly identical, just BWI is about twice as snowy as DCA. It was my mistake, I thought I read dca and you had written BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Based on the QPF and the progression of the temperatures profiles from the 12z suite it doesn't look like anyone outside of the mountains will get more than a trace to an inch from this event... not even map-making worthy DCA doesn't look like it will get down to the freezing mark for this event, either. Unless they get some good rates at some point during the event I wouldn't expect any accumulation inside the DC metro. NW DC might get a dusting if they're lucky. If a 12z NAM/Euro/GFS blend verifies verbatim, than I'd agree with you. I'm just not convinced that will happen. Trends are still in the right direction more or less. Things might still improve. That said, I still am glad to be above the fall line. It was my mistake, I thought I read dca and you had written BWI. Saw that after I posted. I deleted my response. Wouldn't want Ellinwood to yell at me about cluttering up this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Taking a more detailed look at the region, I think the MD/PA border could expect around an inch of snow unless the rates completely suck and the warm-ish boundary layer kills accumulation. WV/VA/west MD mountains should expect 1-2" with localized 2-4" totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Taking a more detailed look at the region, I think the MD/PA border could expect around an inch of snow unless the rates completely suck and the warm-ish boundary layer kills accumulation. WV/VA/west MD mountains should expect 1-2" with localized 2-4" totals. If that verifies you would have many happy campers. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Taking a more detailed look at the region, I think the MD/PA border could expect around an inch of snow unless the rates completely suck and the warm-ish boundary layer kills accumulation. WV/VA/west MD mountains should expect 1-2" with localized 2-4" totals. That's what I have been thinking at this point. This is a difficult call once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMW550i Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 2-4 for Snowshoe and Canaan Valley? I would think higher based on clown snow maps from GFS and NAM which show 6-8 in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 2-4 for Snowshoe and Canaan Valley? I would think higher based on clown snow maps from GFS and NAM which show 6-8 in spots. I think he was only referring to precip from the coastal system. Once the arctic front sweeps through the les maching will kick in. If the trajectory sets up right, deep creek area might get more than a foot. There's some 500 energry rotating through after the coastal moves away that will probably enhance the snowfall because of the convective nature of the squalls, warm lake temps, and the orographics. It's actually quite tempting to take a drive out there. It could be a pretty good event. Maybe Phin will lend me his keys in exchange for a 30 pack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I think he was only referring to precip from the coastal system. Once the arctic front sweeps through the les maching will kick in. If the trajectory sets up right, deep creek area might get more than a foot. There's some 500 energy rotating through after the coastal moves away that will probably enhance the snowfall because of the convective nature of the squalls, warm lake temps, and the orographics. It's actually quite tempting to take a drive out there. It could be a pretty good event. Maybe Phin will lend me his keys in exchange for a 30 pack? Correct... I didn't add in any post-storm LES affecting the mountains. LES-prone mountains could/should bump up to the 4-8" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Just FWIW, HPC 48hr >2in probs, not too sure this is the likely outcome. A bit bullish imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Just FWIW, HPC 48hr >2in probs, not too sure this is the likely outcome. A bit bullish imho. More like insane than bullish, they are giving me a 40-50% of 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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