bluewave Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The potentials there as you pointed out but i just wont believe anything till around 48 hours out. Models this year havent been able to get out of there own way lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Bluewave , I will bite , The 10 day Euro is hinting at this as well . Snow cover will be put down this weekend ( coastal ) and again Tues- Wed. , prob WAA . So could be a fun next 10 days . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Inland runner on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Inland runner on the GFS Would not pay much attention to model runs this far out. We can see what has happened with saturdays storm already. This storm is a threat but we must just be cautious within the next week with this and see what happens with the models by wednesday the earliest. Fun week ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 12z GEFS spaghetti plots are all over the potential for a coastal in the 8-12 day time frame. Edit: After taking a better look at the GEFS members as a whole, there is actually very good agreement on a potential threat for this time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Chris, nice post. This is the period I've been mentioning for awhile now re enhanced potential of a Northeast snow event. Modelling seems to be keying in on a temporary, albeit weak, dip in the NAO. A pseudo-neg NAO of sorts develops D 7-9 with a strong north atlantic ridge, not really stretching all the way up to Greenland, but it would be sufficient in holding marginal cold air over the Northern CONUS. We also see guidance over the past couple days trending away from blowtorch solutions. While next week's temperatures will be on the upswing, and certainly warmer than this weekend, they're not likely to be any warmer than we saw this week (mid 40s, slightly above normal). By next weekend we see a gradual decline in PNA values but also NAO values, which ends up yielding a somewhat zonal flow across the country. However, as you correctly pointed out, the STJ will be energizing, and this is due in large part IMO to the strong MJO wave currently propagating ewd in the trop pacific. This wave should be in latter stage 8/phase 1 by Pres day weekend, putting the East coast in a pretty conducive position for a snow event. Obviously synoptic factors will need to be examined as we approach the time frame, but as it stands, I think the stage is set for something next weekend (depending on track, potentially producing more snow than this weekend). Note fairly decent agreement b/t the ECMWF and GFS on the north atlantic ridge, a weak neg nao signal, with lower heights being detected in the central/sern US via the southern stream energy ejecting eastward. This wouldn't work a month from now probably, but luckily, marginal cold is still ok to produce snow at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Also of interest is the mid week WAA/weak event which could end up similar to yesterday's minor C-1"/2" deal for many folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Also of interest is the mid week WAA/weak event which could end up similar to yesterday's minor C-1"/2" deal for many folks. 18z GFS has the progression similar to this week's light event. We'll have to see if it trends stronger as we approach the time frame, but right now it looks like a Tues aft-evening light snow, minor accum deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 0z GEFS has a weak coastal storm for next weekend while the GFS takes the low inland . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 18z GFS has the progression similar to this week's light event. We'll have to see if it trends stronger as we approach the time frame, but right now it looks like a Tues aft-evening light snow, minor accum deal. 0z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 If we can get some phasing of the streams, next weekend has the potential to produce much more snow for some areas of the Northeast, dependent upon track of course. However, much more moisture to work with, given a very potent/juiced STJ impulse, as Chris already talked about in the OP. Both the ECMWF and GFS indicate that STJ wave will be propagating W-E through the SE US then off the east coast; the 00z Euro from last night bombs the low off Hatteras but is too far east to impact the NE US. Again, the torch isn't happening next week; there is marginal cold air around, the NAO will be briefly dipping negative, and the MJO will be phase 8/1. If we can get even some partial phasing and intensification on the east coast, next weekend has good potential. Will be interesting to track this one over the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I posted this in the main thread but I think it applies here too, with regards to next weekend, Note the day 10 and 14 GFS ensemble AO forecasts versus actual observations (black line) over the past month. In strong contrast to Dec/Jan, the AO has now been negative to much more negative than progged in the D 10-15 range. Even out at D7, there is a slight positive bias to GFS ensembles. What this may mean is the current proggs for a slightly positive AO in the D 10-15 time frame could bust on the high side. I wouldn't be surprised if the AO reaches or exceeds neutral, but then I'd expect it to generally stay neutral-slightly negative. The strat vortex has been pretty thoroughly destroyed, so I don't think we're looking at a mod/strongly positive AO any time soon at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GGEm shows a beast for next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GGEm shows a beast for next Friday. woahh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 beautiful looking system on the GGEM. Roughly 0.8in qpf for NYC using a rough estimation. If that storm crawls NE instead of ENE it would've been 1in+ for sure. Plenty cold too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Note on the CMC H5 progression, the nern stream s/w diving into the sern s/w and phasing over the TN/OH valleys, energizing the system and closing it off at H5 once near the MA coast. Perfect timing. This is what we'd like to see on other guidance as we move forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Note on the CMC H5 progression, the nern stream s/w diving into the sern s/w and phasing over the TN/OH valleys, energizing the system and closing it off at H5 once near the MA coast. Perfect timing. This is what we'd like to see on other guidance as we move forward. It is the perfect outcome, thankfully it is a week out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Note on the CMC H5 progression, the nern stream s/w diving into the sern s/w and phasing over the TN/OH valleys, energizing the system and closing it off at H5 once near the MA coast. Perfect timing. This is what we'd like to see on other guidance as we move forward. as of now you can see why even though its a beautiful system it slips a little too far SE for us to get major snow. That s/w that rolls through beforehand on wed into thurs doesn't allow the heights to amplify that much ahead of the trailing s/w that becomes our storm. It basically serves as a transient 50/50 low that is just slightly too far SW to allow the trailing s/w to climb the coast as it amplifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 It is the perfect outcome, thankfully it is a week out again. Yeah it is a week out, though I don't believe this threat will simply fade away into the wind like most of the D5+ storms that have shown up on modelling this winter. I'm fairly confident we'll see a potent STJ wave moving across the sern US, the question is, can the H5 energy phase in time to intensify the sfc low on the east coast. The MJO supports a storm somewhere on the east coast, and our transient albeit weak ridging in the north atlantic should sustain sufficient cold in the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Euro is pretty ugly for the storm. Looks pretty much polar opposite of ggem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Euro is pretty ugly for the storm. Looks pretty much polar opposite of ggem. that system doesnt look like the storm that could eventually threaten the east coast. Its the energy behind it, and there's a lot of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 that system doesnt look like the storm that could eventually threaten the east coast. Its the energy behind it, and there's a lot of it. Nice call, looks like its developing a monster at 216. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 that system doesnt look like the storm that could eventually threaten the east coast. Its the energy behind it, and there's a lot of it. Timing wayyyyyyyy different btw euro and ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This period definitely looks interesting with the 2 streams and some cold air running around. Euro does eventually get a storm off the coast at hr 222, but thats way out, and a storm could easily come before that The MJO traversing through phases 8-1 is a good sign for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Ok so the models are hinting at something big for the east coast for next weekend. We got a juicy sub tropical jet that when it phases with the northern stream at the right time we can gets a MECS. Its a week away an we still got plenty of time to iron out details. This will be one of those timing issues between those two streams and we'll have to watch it closely over the next several days. One good thing supported for this storm stated already in this thread mjo phases 8-1 good phases for easy coast cyclogenesis, air mass looks to be able to hold some cold air in to keep p-type issues to a minimum. IMO we should really take a cautious approach till wednesday/thursday to really take any model run as its worth. Fun times ahead guys. Btw isotherm and bluewave some really great input regarding this threat too, really very informative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Ok so the models are hinting at something big for the east coast for next weekend. We got a juicy sub tropical jet that when it phases with the northern stream at the right time we can gets a MECS. Its a week away an we still got plenty of time to iron out details. This will be one of those timing issues between those two streams and we'll have to watch it closely over the next several days. One good thing supported for this storm stated already in this thread mjo phases 8-1 good phases for easy coast cyclogenesis, air mass looks to be able to hold some cold air in to keep p-type issues to a minimum. IMO we should really take a cautious approach till wednesday/thursday to really take any model run as its worth. Fun times ahead guys. Btw isotherm and bluewave some really great input regarding this threat too, really very informative. Btw the weekend, mid week, and possible late week action flakes could be in the air a fair bit.... It's about time good grief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Btw the weekend, mid week, and possible late week action flakes could be in the air a fair bit.... It's about time good grief The torch is gone on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I have a good feeling about this storm if we can get it closer to the coast. Even though we have been snow and storm starved there have been several bombs the last few weeks that have gone east of the maritimes. The low that gave us a coating Wednesday bombed out big time and produced hurricane force winds and some huge seas NE of the maritimes. So the pattern is capable of producing a big storm we just need it closer to home. Also there is the historical date its just a great time climatologicaly for us for a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 GFS tries to get a miller B going next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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