weatherpsycho Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I guess 696 north looking good based on 00z NAM Wow. I would take that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Heh. NAM "scorches" the low levels here for a time. Below the somewhat odd result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Heh. NAM "scorches" the low levels here for a time. Below the somewhat odd result. I'd be a tad more bullish on amounts (and I do mean a tad) if we didn't have thermal questions. I think we probably stay at an inch or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'd be a tad more bullish on amounts (and I do mean a tad) if we didn't have thermal questions. I think we probably stay at an inch or less. I'm not sure I buy the warmer NAM...but either way, an inch is probably about the best case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 One thing I can say for sure, the 00z NAM's solution sure as hell better not be the outcome. The 00z NAM verbatum still gives 0.17" qpf to DTW and 0.21" to DET, among the best of any NAM run. Also gives 0.36" to PTK. Remember a few days ago qpf was looking in the 0.03-0.05" range. That said, the 00z NAM looks very funky and the NAM has had tons of run to run continuity problems, so Im guessing its an outlier til the other guidance all comes in. I think SE MI is good for a 1-3 inch snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I guess 696 north looking good based on 00z NAM Congrats Woodstock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The trend in the 00z model suite tonight is for a more slower and stronger/wetter system along the arctic frontal boundary. The 00z NAM and 00z RGEM are both showing snow into Saturday morning for the Toronto area. Should be interesting to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The trend in the 00z model suite tonight is for a more slower and stronger/wetter system along the arctic frontal boundary. The 00z NAM and 00z RGEM is now showing snow into Saturday morning for the Toronto area. Should be interesting to track. I have an important exam on Saturday morning so....for the first time in my life...I'm kinda rooting this finds a way to miss us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I have an important exam on Saturday morning so....for the first time in my life...I'm kinda rooting this finds a way to miss us. Good luck on your exam. And I have a feeling this could be another surprise snow event, like Feb. 5th of last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Good luck on your exam. And I have a feeling this could be another surprise snow event, like Feb. 5th of last year. Thanks. Based on the NAM/RGEM it could rival the 2-3" we got on Jan 30th for the biggest snowfall of the season. That'd usually be worthy of me staying up all night watching it but I gotta try and get a good night's sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 NAM/RGEM/RUC showing 2-4" here tomorrow, quite a change from what I saw earlier in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Congrats Woodstock. lol 8"? Whaat How legitimate is that map. Thought it was only an inch or two event, but that there map has 5-6" in kw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Expecting some flurries tomorrow and maybe a snow shower, but this far west we'll miss out on this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Starting to look mildly interesting for inland Wisconsin, cyclogenesis occurs as the arctic front crosses the state, possibly kicking off some good precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The 00z NAM verbatum still gives 0.17" qpf to DTW and 0.21" to DET, among the best of any NAM run. Also gives 0.36" to PTK. Remember a few days ago qpf was looking in the 0.03-0.05" range. That said, the 00z NAM looks very funky and the NAM has had tons of run to run continuity problems, so Im guessing its an outlier til the other guidance all comes in. I think SE MI is good for a 1-3 inch snowfall. I don't think nam is an outlier since Euro looks very similar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Surprised no WWA (not that its important) issued for Detroit northward. Models are in agreement for 2 to 4" event with Winds gusting up to 25 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Latest model runs really bring good snowfall from Saginaw to Detroits northern burbs. Not gonna lie, I sure as heck hope DTX is right with the SE counties seeing the most snow. Taking the latest models verbatum, we would still be in for 2" south of Detroit, but those areas would probably see 4-6". Will be interesting to see 12z. Several days ago this was a dusting-to-inch event, so cant complain, but its really starting to get interesting. Also the timing has REALLY been pushed back. Now looks like it wont snow here until the evening but will last through the overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Surprised no WWA (not that its important) issued for Detroit northward. Models are in agreement for 2 to 4" event with Winds gusting up to 25 mph. It goes back to the days of 'Travelers Advisories'. It was perfect for these 1-3" or 2-4" events. Travelers are the ones most affected by these nickel and dime events. Many people don't even shovel thier driveways after them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Well I must admit I am pleased... Just had a full moon and the weather seems to be getting colder and snowy, in my opion this will be the best two weeks of the season comming up. I am a firm believer on how the weather follows the moon cycles and this is another perfect example in my eyes. Up early this am to presalt all my handicap parking areas and make sure all the equipment is ready. With the way things are looking 2" snow will be on the low end of the spectrum this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Congrats Woodstock. Damn. Got excited there for a second Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Congrats Toronto: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Congrats Toronto: The basic ("non-cumulus") 12km WRF is not quite as agressive with the convergence enhanced bullseye, but still a general 0.40-0.50". Pretty amazing considering this looked like flurries about 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Well I must admit I am pleased... Just had a full moon and the weather seems to be getting colder and snowy, in my opion this will be the best two weeks of the season comming up. I am a firm believer on how the weather follows the moon cycles and this is another perfect example in my eyes. Up early this am to presalt all my handicap parking areas and make sure all the equipment is ready. With the way things are looking 2" snow will be on the low end of the spectrum this event. Welcome to the board my fellow Ontarian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Damn. Got excited there for a second You live in a town with a popular name. That's pretty exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The 00z NAM verbatum still gives 0.17" qpf to DTW and 0.21" to DET, among the best of any NAM run. Also gives 0.36" to PTK. Remember a few days ago qpf was looking in the 0.03-0.05" range. That said, the 00z NAM looks very funky and the NAM has had tons of run to run continuity problems, so Im guessing its an outlier til the other guidance all comes in. I think SE MI is good for a 1-3 inch snowfall. By this season's standards, it would still be a heartbreaker if the Northenr Suburbs and Flint/Port Huron saw 3-6" while we're looking at just another 1-3" (especially when the placement of the heaviest QPF and all was completely different yesterday before the 00z runs). EDIT: And oh the agony if a WWA eventually ends up being issued for the aforementioned areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Models decreased qpf last night, now I think 1 inch will probaly be the total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 By this season's standards, it would still be a heartbreaker if the Northenr Suburbs and Flint/Port Huron saw 3-6" while we're looking at just another 1-3" (especially when the placement of the heaviest QPF and all was completely different yesterday before the 00z runs). EDIT: And oh the agony if a WWA eventually ends up being issued for the aforementioned areas. It would be aggravating, yes, but 2 days ago this was looking like a dusting to inch event, and we will very likely end up with more than that, so its all perspective. WWA would be nice but it doesnt bother me, its not like it makes an event more special, its just what the local forecaster deems necessary. Cincinatti had a WWA issued 36 hours in advance for 1-2", and Philly had one the other day for "up to 1 inch" (they ended up with 0.3", not even on pavement). Conversely our Jan 20/21 snow certainly was a travel nightmare, should have been a WWA imo but the forecaster did not deem it necessary. LOL by those standards set by some offices just to our south, wed be looking at our 6th or 7th WWA tonight, and probably our 12th or 13th if we lived in Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Snow covering the ground already, going pretty good out there, especially since it hasn't snowed in awhile! Radar keeps getting better and better. Also, the fetch from Lake Michigan into Wisconsin is setting up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Snow covering the ground already, going pretty good out there, especially since it hasn't snowed in awhile! Radar keeps getting better and better. Also, the fetch from Lake Michigan into Wisconsin is setting up now. rather healthy returns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 I will add though that it does look like this event had all models puzzled. The Euro was the outlier who first grabbed onto the widespread 0.10"+ qpf about 3 days ago, and the others caught up, but its really looking like Detroits northern burbs to Saginaw will be getting hit good, no model really saw that coming (perhaps shades of Feb 5, 2011?). I mean DTW alone saw our qpf triple from 2-3 days ago, but places like PTK/FNT were originally forecast a few hundredths of qpf now look to be getting possibly over 0.30"!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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