Feb 10/11 Arctic Front and Snowfall

[Hoosier]

All this DTX bashing isn't very attractive. I'm not saying don't critique, but it can be done tactfully.

[michsnowfreak]

Ended up with 4.9" of snow on 0.33" water, WAY overperformer. Looks like the heart of Wayne county, the east side, and the Saginaw Valley were the jackpots of 4.5-5". The model consensus for mby was about 0.05" in the week leading up to it, the euro 3 day ahead of time forecast about 0.15" (which was an outlier til the day before), and at the very last minute (18z yesterday) the NAM gave us 0.25".

Have drifts of 8-12" all over the place in my neighborhood, cant imagine really open areas. It looks like a bonifide snowstorm hit.

[michsnowfreak]

I agree 100% with Ajdos: a maginal call on Advsy. I still have questions on some of those 5" (mainly drifting in my book). A 2-4" the best call but what's an inch between friends (lol).

see my epilogue;

http://weatherhistor...-visit-for.html

Definitely had near 5" here. What I noticed when measuring is that it was actually quite easy to measure to about midnight. We had 4" on 0.26" water at the time, and while the arctic front had the gusty winds and caused some drifting it wasnt bad at all. Overnight however was a different story. The winds really seemed to gust and then drifting became a nightmare in open areas and even somewhat in more protected residential areas. Had another 0.07" water in my rain gauge overnight and estimated the new snowfall at 0.9".

Wrt the advisory aspect. The storm definitely should have had an advisory in my opinion, at least here.

Its a very weak argument to say the snow started around noon lol. Yes it did, but throughout the day we had a meager 0.1" of snow tint the grass (early afternoon) that actually melted before the snow picked up in the evening. From about 6pm to 10pm we had about 1.4", so your looking at a total snowfall from noon to 10pm of just 1.5". Then boom, from 10pm to midnight we had 2.5" more as temps tumbled some 15 degrees, this alone seemed advisory worth. Then the snowfall overnight was steady til ending around 6am, but lighter, along with significant blowing and drifting, totaling approximately just under an inch additional snowfall.

[Powerball]

Its a very weak argument to say the snow started around noon lol. Yes it did, but throughout the day we had a meager 0.1" of snow tint the grass (early afternoon) that actually melted before the snow picked up in the evening.

That argument isn't any weaker than the argument that the GHD storm achieved as forecasted because the 2-3" of wrap around snow helped us get a cheap 10" over 12+ hours, lol.

[on_wx]

2" on the dot in Wloo

[michsnowfreak]

That argument isn't any weaker than the argument that the GHD storm achieved as forecasted because the 2-3" of wrap around snow helped us get a cheap 10" over 12+ hours, lol.

I agree. And I dont know anyone who said the GHD did achieve as forecast. It actually took us 36 hours to get that 10" btw lol. It just wasnt as big of a bust as some made it out to be. And it was quickly replaced by about 3 good busts in the next few weeks.

I found this as advisory criteria from the DTX page:

Winter Weather Advisory: This product is issued by the National Weather Service when a low pressure system produces a combination of winter weather (snow, freezing rain, sleet, etc.) that present a hazard, but does not meet warning criteria. In this case, snowfall does not have to reach Snow Advisory Criteria. The Snow Advisory criteria can vary from area to area. In Michigan, the criteria for its issuance is a snow event that is forecasted to produce snow (average of forecast range) greater than 3 inches, but less than warning criteria (6 inches in Lower Michigan and 8 inches in Upper Michigan) in 12 hours.

We did get 3+ inches in 12 hours. Basically 4.8" of my 4.9" fell from 6pm to 6am.

[Trent]

NWS Cleveland upgraded us to a winter storm warning this morning after just upgrading us to a winter weather advisory a few hours earlier. I was quite puzzled why they didn't do this last night when all indications led to this type of event.

Nonetheless, almost blizzard criteria here and it's brutal outside. The airports were so close to officially having a blizzard, but I'm sure a few areas in between "officially" met the criteria:

At CLE:

11 13:51 NW 18 G 35 0.25 Snow Freezing Fog Blowing Snow BKN016 BKN022 OVC031 19 14 81% 30.04 1018.2

11 12:51 NW 22 G 32 0.25 Snow Freezing Fog Blowing Snow and Breezy VV014 19 15 22 19 84% 30.03 1017.9

11 11:51 NW 25 G 36 0.25 Heavy Snow Freezing Fog Blowing Snow and Breezy VV011 19 15 84% 30.03 1017.7

At BKL:

11 12:53 NW 25 G 35 0.25 Heavy Snow and Breezy VV012 22 17 25 22 82% 30.00 1016.4

11 11:53 NW 30 G 37 0.25 Heavy Snow Freezing Fog and Windy VV009 22 18 85% 29.99 1016.2

11 10:53 NW 29 G 37 0.50 Snow and Windy FEW007 BKN013 OVC034 23 18 81% 29.97 1015.5

11 09:53 N 35 G 43 0.75 Light Snow and Windy OVC015 23 16 74% 29.94 1014.6

11 08:53 N 32 G 41 0.25 Heavy Snow and Windy VV013 23 18 81% 29.91 1013.5

[Trent]

Some pictures from this afternoon:

[michsnowfreak]

Now we just need to mix out this stratus and bring on a real winter storm.

From the drifts today to the harsh weather conditions last night, this certainly was a real winter storm to me from all accounts. Not a major one, but even yesterday afternoon, I was thinking this would be a snowfall that would hopefully cover all the grass, but what I experienced was a "snowstorm" rather than a "snowfall". The fropa was my favorite weather event since the Feb 20 snowstorm last winter (I MAY have picked since the July 2nd storms, but as you know Im winter, not severe). BTW, we have had partly to mostly sunny skies since 10am here.

[IWXwx]

I was going to post a few days ago that this might overperform, but didn't because I have no scientific reasoning. I seems that every winter we get a couple of arctic fronts that dump more snow than models project in certain areas along the front. I don't know the reason other than just speculation. It does seem that these types of fronts squeeze every ounce of moisture from the atmosphere. Lake enhancement could also play a part. Also, I'm sure models don't accurately portray ratios.

Anyway, I always expect someone to jackpot along an arctic front. Congrats Detroit area!

[cyclone77]

Some pictures from this afternoon:

Very nice! That pic of the Plaza with the revolving door is sick!

[snowstormcanuck]

Approaching 4" of snow at my place in north Toronto. Deffinately an overerformer, considering our canadian Weather Network was calling for only half an inch at most as late as last night!!

Looks like a bust on the east coast though.

I measured about 4.7" here in my area, just north of Toronto ....drifts are closer to 6-7"

greatest snowfall of the winter, plus its freezing......looks like winter outside.

Really impressive guys. I measured a total of 2.2" when I got home. That was hours after the snow stopped so there may have been some compression, although maybe you guys on the north side got more. I'll know when Pearson's numbers come out. If I'm lower than them, then it's obvious that I gotta bump up.

[DAFF]

Here is my observations. EC called for about 5cm about 2" of accumulation no mention of the exact dynamics of the acrtic front. This is the major reason I watch NOAA and follow the forcast discussion very morn and night 3:45ish. They hit the nail on the head with the timing seed and negitive weather impacts of the front. For me these things are irriplacable in buisiness, and save me so much headaches plus return trips to the sites. I have noticed that the eastern side of Michigan is much more reluctant is posting a watch or warning, perhaps they have been riticuled too many time for jumping the gun.

Did the front meet criteria??? Not exactly but then again it was the most extreme system of this soft winter..

[michsnowfreak]

Here is my observations. EC called for about 5cm about 2" of accumulation no mention of the exact dynamics of the acrtic front. This is the major reason I watch NOAA and follow the forcast discussion very morn and night 3:45ish. They hit the nail on the head with the timing seed and negitive weather impacts of the front. For me these things are irriplacable in buisiness, and save me so much headaches plus return trips to the sites. I have noticed that the eastern side of Michigan is much more reluctant is posting a watch or warning, perhaps they have been riticuled too many time for jumping the gun.

Did the front meet criteria??? Not exactly but then again it was the most extreme system of this soft winter..

What did you end up with in Windsor? Most places did exceed 3 inches in under 12 hours, so advisory criteria was met here. I too have noticed that DTX can be hesitant to issue warnings/advisories, and on the flip side some of the nearby NWS's are way to jump-the-gun on advisories. Sometimes it looks downright silly when you see advisories all around SE MI but nothing here when we are all forecast the same snowfall, but its not the warning product that makes the snowstorm, its the snow that makes the snowstorm Its funny how parking lots were all plowed first thing this morning ($$$) but the roads were a mess . All I know is I have the deepest snow Ive had on the ground since March, so Im happy, and very ready for more!

[DAFF]

Accumulations were a heavy 3" closer to 4" I would say. Most falling during my nap. Hard to tell for in our area is open country with lots of blowing snow. Wnt to bed at 12am awoken by 1:12AM with the alarm and just woke up from another 60min snoose. Going to head back out around 9pm to do some sight checks.

Ready for the next system !!!

[michsnowfreak]

Accumulations were a heavy 3" closer to 4" I would say. Most falling during my nap. Hard to tell for in our area is open country with lots of blowing snow. Wnt to bed at 12am awoken by 1:12AM with the alarm and just woke up from another 60min snoose. Going to head back out around 9pm to do some sight checks.

Ready for the next system !!!

Bring it on!!! I must have been in some sort of jackpot, because I have heard that 3-4" was a common number but definitely closer to 5" from DTW to my place (and again on the east side and into the Saginaw Valley). When I did depth measurments this morning in both my front and backyards as well as the neighbors (she doesnt mind lol), almost all non-drifted areas were 5" with just a few 4" spots, then I also have an 8-12" drift against the fence. I do notice the neighbor across the street in a sort of wind-tunnel has the center of his yard with some grass tips visible, leading to a foot drift against the house next door. And out near DTW in the more open area I know there were big drifts, so I know the problems open areas can face with stiff winds like this. I do think its more of a product of a moderate burst of snow several hours before the front, I was at 1.5" when the front came through, I know many others were at about a half-inch pre-front. Seems like the front and post-frontal was good for dumping 3" in many places.

[GordoFabulous]

Took this picture on my phone yesterday. Sorry the quality's not great.

For about 15 minutes yesterday afternoon, the snow falling in Muncie was composed of individual, perfect, six-pointed snowflakes (the kind you see in textbooks). The flakes would last about five seconds before melting, but the snow was heavy enough that at any one time, there were about two dozen perfect flakes on the trash can lids. It's been a while since I've see flakes this perfect. </little things to take away from a crappy winter>

[DAFF]

^^^I will take a few billion more of those just south of detroit.....^^^

[BowMeHunter]

awesome pics! Snow pics>better than severe and bendy palm tree's and flying gas staion signs all day and night.. Blows my mind how you don't chase a couple hr away at most LES event but will waste gas 7 hrs away to fail on severe.

Must be more money in destruction pics.

[Ajdos]

Snow is melting pretty quickly today....Mostly sunny and slushy outside lol.

[michsnowfreak]

Snow is melting pretty quickly today....Mostly sunny and slushy outside lol.

Its not melting that much. Actually I was quite pleased at how relatively little it has been melting with full sun. Slushy in the streets that werent plowed, but thats to be expected. Keep in mind with all the blowing/drifting, some open areas the snow was quite thin so you will probably see some grass pickers.

Speaking of drifting, as you could see from my pics drifting was everywhere even residential areas, so imagine open fields. Windblown areas have grass pickers with big drifts down a ways. Look at this drift I found today, not bad for a snowfall of just under 5 inches!

[Toronto4]

Totals for Toronto area stations:

Downtown Toronto (University of Toronto) 5.8 cm

East York: 7.4 cm

North York (Environment Canada headquarters at Dufferin/Steeles): 6.0 cm

Buttonville Airport (Markham): 7.2 cm

Oakville (The Weather Network studios): 5.3 cm

Pearson Airport (YYZ): 1.2 cm (1.2 cm on the 10th + a trace on the 11th with 2.2 mm of rain)...LOL

The Pearson amount is surely an error. The 2.2 mm is supposed to be 2.2 cm for a total of 3.4 cm. Still on the low side compared to other stations, though.

[snowstormcanuck]

Totals for Toronto area stations:

Downtown Toronto (University of Toronto) 5.8 cm

East York: 7.4 cm

North York (Environment Canada headquarters at Dufferin/Steeles): 6.0 cm

Buttonville Airport (Markham): 7.2 cm

Oakville (The Weather Network studios): 5.3 cm

Pearson Airport (YYZ): 1.2 cm (1.2 cm on the 10th + a trace on the 11th with 2.2 mm of rain)...LOL

The Pearson amount is surely an error. The 2.2 mm is supposed to be 2.2 cm for a total of 3.4 cm. Still on the low side compared to other stations, though.

I had 5.5cm here, which seems to be a good fit with those numbers. Looks like the 4"+/10cm+ reported by Ottawa Blizzard and Snowstorms were probably due to measuring in drifts.

Pearson's BS is par for the course. Time to just start ignoring them. North York gives a good representation of suburban Toronto.

[Snowstorms]

I had 5.5cm here, which seems to be a good fit with those numbers. Looks like the 4"+/10cm+ reported by Ottawa Blizzard and Snowstorms were probably due to measuring in drifts.

Pearson's BS is par for the course. Time to just start ignoring them. North York gives a good representation of suburban Toronto.

Forget Pearson...EC will bs now to get another record low haha.

As for my measurements. I measured in like 10 different spots. Some spots averaged 9-10cm....one of them was 14cm which I didn't believe but I added them all and divided by 10 and I got 11.8cm. The drifts in my area were closer to 6".

Here's Buttonville thus far

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?StationID=4841&Month=2&Day=14&Year=2012&timeframe=2

[snowstormcanuck]

Forget Pearson...EC will bs now to get another record low haha.

As for my measurements. I measured in like 10 different spots. Some spots averaged 9-10cm....one of them was 14cm which I didn't believe but I added them all and divided by 10 and I got 11.8cm. The drifts in my area were closer to 6".

Here's Buttonville thus far

http://www.climate.w...012&timeframe=2

Well, even if you do multiple measurements, if you're measuring too close to your roof there's a good chance of contamination. You're in Woodbridge, right? I know how those backyards are. Very small. Tough to get a measurement away from some type of obstacle (fence, tree, etc).

I guess it's possible you got a locally higher amount, but there wasn't any banding, lake enhancement, TSSN, or other phenomenon that would have led to localized amounts.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Totals for Toronto area stations:

Downtown Toronto (University of Toronto) 5.8 cm

East York: 7.4 cm

North York (Environment Canada headquarters at Dufferin/Steeles): 6.0 cm

Buttonville Airport (Markham): 7.2 cm

Oakville (The Weather Network studios): 5.3 cm

Pearson Airport (YYZ): 1.2 cm (1.2 cm on the 10th + a trace on the 11th with 2.2 mm of rain)...LOL

The Pearson amount is surely an error. The 2.2 mm is supposed to be 2.2 cm for a total of 3.4 cm. Still on the low side compared to other stations, though.

Downtown no longer takes temperature records do they? It seems they stopped in 2006, and they'd been taking them since 1839!

[Toronto4]

Downtown no longer takes temperature records do they? It seems they stopped in 2006, and they'd been taking them since 1839!

There are two separate stations at the same downtown location at the University of Toronto: the manned station (for winter time measurements of snowfall and snow depth) and the automated station (year round temperature and precip readings). Up to the end of June 2003, both temperature and precip/snowfall readings were done by a human observer. However Environment Canada changed things starting in July 2003 and it hasn't changed since then.

[Toronto4]

I had 5.5cm here, which seems to be a good fit with those numbers. Looks like the 4"+/10cm+ reported by Ottawa Blizzard and Snowstorms were probably due to measuring in drifts.

Pearson's BS is par for the course. Time to just start ignoring them. North York gives a good representation of suburban Toronto.

I'm liking the East York readings more and more. The location (somewhere in the O'Connor Dr and Greenwood Ave. area) is close enough to the downtown station. It looks like their readings are done by an Environment Canada employee or a retired one.