Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Looks pretty darn decent overall, is that ribbon of precip developing around NYC going to be able to make it up over LI, across SE CT, RI and SE MA later? It's a tough call, it's going to be awful close to give someone a pretty good smack later this evening. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=DIX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 overcast 34/14 snow into the city now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2012 Author Share Posted February 8, 2012 Just figured it was good to break it out...it's got a prayer...not a huge one but it does. It looks pretty damned good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 we'll probably get into some light snows later tonight. the developing coastal kind of robs some of our moisture later on but still should scrape the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 looks like the trajectory of the precip over NYC is more due East then over S NJ where it's moving NE/ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 The RUC actually smokes ACK later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 heavy heavy grass dusting with several hours in and out of rasn-..... 35 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 The RUC actually smokes ACK later this evening. with what that stuff in S/C NJ i hope this smacks someone other than a seal in kev's fav. beach spot (gay head,mvy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I put a mix changing to snow in my ACK TAF. NYC and ACK have been interesting today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2012 Author Share Posted February 8, 2012 Just saw that Will, was mainly looking at WV and radar...the GFS and NAM nudged "wetter" too. The RUC this year has actually been really good with several events...but those events weren't really trying to drive precip up here from off the Delmarva. Seems to do this from time to time driving precip in here then pulls it away later but heck...it's 4 to 5 hours now. Feels like snow down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Euro is actually similar to the RUC for ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 messenger i personally hope you can score 1-2 inches overnite and ditto for phil. At a Min.. at least adds a little excitment for you guys per radar watchin this eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Good luck to you guys out on the cape and islands! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2012 Author Share Posted February 8, 2012 Euro is actually similar to the RUC for ACK. It is, but take a look at the h12 Euro compared to current radar, looks to be way too far south with the precip on the Jersey coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2012 Author Share Posted February 8, 2012 Going to be quite the battle. Everything will want to get squeezed east for a bit, the later RUCs are developing it in just enough time to have a nice NW flank to it. Possible I suppose, we shall see. Maybe a good deal for ACK with the rest of us on the outside watching flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 It is, but take a look at the h12 Euro compared to current radar, looks to be way too far south with the precip on the Jersey coast.... I think you should keep an eye on the blob coming off NJ. The problem is that it might move more ENE and skirt the south coast and hit ACK. However, if it tries to bulge north, than it can try to clip you guys. Phil and I earlier were saying to watch the nrn edge because it might be a little more defined and stronger than models have it, but the lift also may not be sufficient enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2012 Author Share Posted February 8, 2012 I think you should keep an eye on the blob coming off NJ. The problem is that it might move more ENE and skirt the south coast and hit ACK. However, if it tries to bulge north, than it can try to clip you guys. Phil and I earlier were saying to watch the nrn edge because it might be a little more defined and stronger than models have it, but the lift also may not be sufficient enough. Yeah it gets squished east while being elongated. This 22z run of the ruc looks to have the best handle on its position of all its earlier runs...so let's see if further north early means further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Nadda here, complete whiff, nice night to be on ack though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2012 Author Share Posted February 8, 2012 the most recent RUC came back to earth, funny how tough this model is with east coast redevelopments...fine with systems coming across, up, not so much. Probably just a bit more aggressive than the EURO re the 22z RUC...which means flurries up to maybe the canal, maybe a dusting over the cape and maybe a coating to 2" on ACK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Nadda here, complete whiff, nice night to be on ack though Congrats on 1-3 tonight..Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Congrats on 1-3 tonight..Enjoy lol, just another failure, enjoy the flurries this weekend, brown ground, and bitter cold temps, some grass sledding perhaps? Pathetic I have seen more snow than you since Jan 1:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2012 Author Share Posted February 8, 2012 Has the potential to be a keyboard smasher out by Phil.....could be a pretty awesome gradient depending on what side of it you're on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Good luck to MVY Ackwaves and Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 ACK is going to be an interesting forecast. Gonna have to look at that again, shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Does anyone think Joe will have to shovel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 ACK is going to be an interesting forecast. Gonna have to look at that again, shortly. NAM absolutely nailed this event here, radar completely dried up as energy is being transfered to the coastal, spot on, euro out to lunch, not a flake here despite calling for a half inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 NAM absolutely nailed this event here, radar completely dried up as energy is being transfered to the coastal, spot on, euro out to lunch, not a flake here despite calling for a half inch of snow. Euro barely had any QPF for you, it wasnt out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Euro barely had any QPF for you, it wasnt out to lunch. had 0.05 it failed. gfs failed. rgem failed. nam nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 NAM absolutely nailed this event here, radar completely dried up as energy is being transfered to the coastal, spot on, euro out to lunch, not a flake here despite calling for a half inch of snow. Who called for a half inch? LOL Always a red flag when the Nam (which is usually a wet model) is bone dry...DP was 10-12 here all day with temps in the 30's. Danbury was 4-5 for DP-never had a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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