hm8 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Figured I'd create the much discussed about pattern change thread. Looks like we have a shot at a period of some sort of wintery weather pattern around mid-late Feb. The GFS and others have being showing blockbusters in the fantasy range at times. Talk about the MJO and teleconnections and stuff along those lines, and, if you have a very good reason to post it and provide commentary, maybe even long range storms. Go. EDIT: To get an idea of what this thread should be like, check out the Medium Range Discussion thread in the main forum here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 ..I got nothing to say...WE already went throughout a "pattern change" 20 times this winter lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 ..I got nothing to say...WE already went throughout a "pattern change" 20 times this winter lol.. There's going to be a pattern change eventually............ right into spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 This is supposed to be a serious discussion thread, and already 3 posts in we have 2 bull**** posts. Below is what I posted in 2nd locked thread last night that then was buried in a fight There is pretty good model concensus that there will be a strong system in the 8-12 day range. Right when the AO goes back to near neutral and the PNA goes less positive, also this will be right when the MJO is crossing into the colder phases for the region (8 to 1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 The pattern change has already happened. This is as good as your going to get. Hope for the best and if it fails, are you really surprised? The thing is however you would want the mean trough axis to be a bit further West than it is right now, which mid to late month it does look like it will retrograde/reform West some, which opens the door for systems into this region instead of South and East of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 The thing is however you would want the mean trough axis to be a bit further West than it is right now, which mid to late month it does look like it will retrograde/reform West some, which opens the door for systems into this region instead of South and East of here. When/if storms do start to come west, it seems like all we have is stale cold air to work with, no High to our north. Does the lack of a good snowcover to our north in Canada prevent nice Highs from forming? Just wondering b/c it seems hard this year to get a strong High to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I seem to rember a saying of snowstorm in Japan means snow in the eastern US 10-14days later... NTM the weather seems to be much cooler and c-1 snows all over the place. I don't think we will see long periods of extreeme cold but big swings seem to be the norm this winter season. I think snow is going to happen sooner than later but I might be a little biast in the snow department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 The pattern already is changing. Even if it stayed warm its for "different reasons" than we have been mild. Pattern change doesnt mean bitterly cold every day. The extended looks to be getting quite active, which is what Im sure many want. All storms wont be snow for everyone, but it certainly should give many some decent chances, and Im liking the odds of finally getting a non-nickel/dime snowstorm here in SE MI this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 This is supposed to be a serious discussion thread, and already 3 posts in we have 2 bull**** posts. Stop pointing fingers enough is enough of you whining! Everyday i see you degrading poster after poster. You need to relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 WOW at 18z GFS!! It really looks beautiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 There's going to be a pattern change eventually............ right into spring I'm ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I seem to rember a saying of snowstorm in Japan means snow in the eastern US 10-14days later... NTM the weather seems to be much cooler and c-1 snows all over the place. I don't think we will see long periods of extreeme cold but big swings seem to be the norm this winter season. I think snow is going to happen sooner than later but I might be a little biast in the snow department. I know the guys from commodity weather group had mentioned it several years ago in 1 of their winter outlooks. they had some pretty good evidence to back it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The pattern already is changing. Even if it stayed warm its for "different reasons" than we have been mild. Pattern change doesnt mean bitterly cold every day. The extended looks to be getting quite active, which is what Im sure many want. All storms wont be snow for everyone, but it certainly should give many some decent chances, and Im liking the odds of finally getting a non-nickel/dime snowstorm here in SE MI this winter. It can be argued that it already changed. Just looking at some of the teleconections you can see how they have changed to a different regime since Dec 1st. Im curious as to what influence a weakening La Nina has on our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I will post some stuff later tonight when I get to a computer but I believe the pattern has the best potential all year for us. And we are not in the range for it to really show up on the long range models yet. just to gloss over it real quick...obviously the m j o is in phase 7 already...there is at least a 5-7 day lag until we see a trough develop or travel across the western US from this. It's forecasted to continue east into phase 8-1 within the next 2 weeks. Which are both favorable phases for the midwest and the east coast for seeing storms traverse the regions. now with that being said. There is also data that suggest that there is a 7 to 14 day lag from phases 7-8-1 to the development of a -N A O. as we know the N A O is highly correlated to the A O. So it can be assumed that we should expect a weak to negative A O to continue or redevelop over the next 4 weeks. Also we have had 2 stratosphere warming events in january that had a 2-3 week lag of the last cold blast and this up coming one. Plus I recall we just concluded a brief warming a day or two ago and there were one or two more being modeled to develop over the next 14 days. So I think we should have some decent pulses of energy from the m j o over the next 3 weeks combined with it inducing a -A O and then the stratosphere warming adding a couple shots of cold air over the next 3 weeks....I think we can get something going for someone on the east coast in the next month. I'll post graphics later to support my claims when I get to a computer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I will also mention I am not too keen on a -N A O in regards to snow storms for the Midwest. I personally believe a +N A O or transition from a -N A O to +N A O is The best for the Midwest since it slides the trough axis further west positioning the jet steam over illinois indiana or ohio. Just my observation over the past 2 decades of analyzing the patterns. so I do not think there is a need to crave a -N A O to produce a snow storm like the NE guys crave it. But a -A O will definitely be to our advantage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I know the guys from commodity weather group had mentioned it several years ago in 1 of their winter outlooks. they had some pretty good evidence to back it up. I believe that was Matt Rogers. One of the best in the biz as far as i am concerned. I need to give him a hollar. I believe there is a similar thing with Typhoons over there and troughs in the eastern us? Oh and nice posts. I will also mention I am not too keen on a -N A O in regards to snow storms for the Midwest. I personally believe a +N A O or transition from a -N A O to +N A O is The best for the Midwest since it slides the trough axis further west positioning the jet steam over illinois indiana or ohio. Just my observation over the past 2 decades of analyzing the patterns. so I do not think there is a need to crave a -N A O to produce a snow storm like the NE guys crave it. But a -A O will definitely be to our advantage Agree strongly with this. Last thing i wanna see is a -NAO oh and a 50/50 low as well. Different story ofcourse along and south of I70. I think the best chance for a -NAO ( if we do see it ) will come in March and perhaps April as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Well I don't like to live and die by the models, we all see how rapidly their teleconnections can swing, so, I am putting more weight into the statistics here for the long range based on the fact that ~80% of the time a NAO evolves 10+ days after phase 7. Granted though, there is that 20% haha. Usedtobe/Wes posted similar findings back in Nov. about the mjo/NAO connection: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The pattern already is changing. Even if it stayed warm its for "different reasons" than we have been mild. Pattern change doesnt mean bitterly cold every day. The extended looks to be getting quite active, which is what Im sure many want. All storms wont be snow for everyone, but it certainly should give many some decent chances, and Im liking the odds of finally getting a non-nickel/dime snowstorm here in SE MI this winter. we have had nearly 60" of precip this past year.... an active pattern would not be a pattern change for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Thoughts on the 12z GFS run which seems to push warmth in mid next week, compared to yesterday's runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Thoughts on the 12z GFS run which seems to push warmth in mid next week, compared to yesterday's runs? As expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Well I don't like to live and die by the models, we all see how rapidly their teleconnections can swing, so, I am putting more weight into the statistics here for the long range based on the fact that ~80% of the time a NAO evolves 10+ days after phase 7. Granted though, there is that 20% haha. Usedtobe/Wes posted similar findings back in Nov. about the mjo/NAO connection: Wow, where did you get that graphic from, Nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 we have had nearly 60" of precip this past year.... an active pattern would not be a pattern change for us. There's more than one type of pattern that is active though. And just because the global pattern is changing doesn't mean the effects are that extreme here, depending on what actually sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This pattern change doesn't look like much. Two or three day cold shot then back to the same old pattern. Honest to God, what does one have to do to make it snow in southern Ontario outside of the lake effect regions. lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Wow, where did you get that graphic from, Nice... From here http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v455/n7212/fig_tab/nature07286_F3.html Also noticing that the CMC continue the downward adjustment in the AO long term and as OSUmetstud has pointed out in other threads the GFS AO has consistently been at least 1SD too high. I personally prefer the CMC solution since there isn't as much spread among its runs and has been more consistent from run to run vs. the GFS that is all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.