CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I think there is room for a tick west, but only so much. Ideally we'd like this thing to phase a bit earlier. The earlier the phase the earlier we can start closing off mid level lows and get some nice deformation on the NW side. I think an earlier phase brings the thing west and is better for just about everyone in terms of snow. NAM may be out to lunch but it's solution is certainly plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 regardless of how the details play out - one thing that is impressive is how well the ensembles handled this with a signal for developing LP near the BM on the 11th/12th for a solid two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
860Wx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 GFS looks like it may come a little west, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 regardless of how the details play out - one thing that is impressive is how well the ensembles handled this with a signal for developing LP near the BM on the 11th/12th for a solid two weeks. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 12z GFS looks stronger and more robust over texas then 06z at this time farme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Gfs update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 regardless of how the details play out - one thing that is impressive is how well the ensembles handled this with a signal for developing LP near the BM on the 11th/12th for a solid two weeks. Yea pisses me off they locked my long lead thread LOL Particularly good ENS long lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Ideally we'd like this thing to phase a bit earlier. The earlier the phase the earlier we can start closing off mid level lows and get some nice deformation on the NW side. I think an earlier phase brings the thing west and is better for just about everyone in terms of snow. NAM may be out to lunch but it's solution is certainly plausible. Yeah agreed. This is what I wanted to see all along, not hope for squalls or a stupid inv trough. I mean sure, they would be nice for whatever place got them, but the screw potential is high with those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
860Wx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Gfs update? I've only got it out to h30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Yeah agreed. This is what I wanted to see all along, not hope for squalls or a stupid inv trough. I mean sure, they would be nice for whatever place got them, but the screw potential is high with those. Yeah Kevin's weather wood for an inch of windex snow never had me excited. This was the solution I was looking/hoping for and leave it to the NAM to show it 60 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 GFS looks better with the srn energy. This will no doubt be better than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
860Wx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This is going to be a good hit IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Yea pisses me off they locked my long lead thread LOL Particularly good ENS long lead. That thread went to hell in a hurry at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 big changes on GFS thru 42h... much much wetter with southern stream energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Trough is digging further south this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This is going to be a good hit IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Low off of HSE with winds north..good ageo response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Low off of HSE with winds north..good ageo response. Looks good... much nicer than 6z. Trough a bit sharper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Busy today. 2 words: It's coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This run is going to be NW of 06z no doub't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
860Wx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Weenie me all you want, it looks way better lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 at 500mb vortmax in northern stream appears a little more south too... this will phase sooner without a doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Folks, I don't think we have to worry too much about the BL. The only way it is wet for more than a short time is if precip is quite light and in that case, who cares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Folks, I don't think we have to worry too much about the BL. The only way it is wet for more than a short time is if precip is quite light and in that case, who cares? Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Folks, I don't think we have to worry too much about the BL. The only way it is wet for more than a short time is if precip is quite light and in that case, who cares? As long as winds are north and precip is decent, it should be snow I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This is pretty exciting! Common GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Elongated low, maybe feedback? Low se of BM with good precip getting into SNE at hr 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Need to tighten this storm up, Lot of energy heading NE on the SE side of the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Definitely better than 6z. NW, shaper trough, still a bit flat which prevents the thing from really going to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Elongated low, maybe feedback? Low se of BM with good precip getting into SNE at hr 54. i think that's in response to the southern vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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