Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 the qpf on that nam run is on roids. Lots of convective stuff going on, unstable soundings, man I would be on the edge for sure. Very cold upstairs with great VV's , would be sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 A few more ticks to NW and this becomes a GC special. Still plenty of time for this thing to trend one way or another, but the synoptics are looking considerably better for someone to get dumped on good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 That's a maple mauler for you..lol. Looks like 2/3 to 3/4 would be wasted to a 35F cold rain. Doesn't matter since this/won't be the final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Not trolling at all, yea looks like you get some cover too. Hopefully this pans out dynamically then sets us all up for a presidents blast, good luck Thanks Ginx. Ya this winter has been terrible but looks like all our luck maybe changing! It will be interesting watching this thing pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Looks like 2/3 to 3/4 would be wasted to a 35F cold rain. Doesn't matter since this/won't be the final solution. NAM has you squarely in the jackpot 60 hours out. Doesn't that make you feel all warm and fuzzy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Looks like 2/3 to 3/4 would be wasted to a 35F cold rain. Doesn't matter since this/won't be the final solution. Not really..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 That's wetbulb city on the snow graphic. What a weenie image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 NAM has you squarely in the jackpot 60 hours out. Doesn't that make you feel all warm and fuzzy? Oh you are just soooooooo cruel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 10" of cement......yes, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I'd beat the good rev by a good 3" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Why is the NAM doing this to us? Doesn't it know that we were ready to roll over and die on this winter? Someone help me out......KGAY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Don't let the NAM suck you in right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Don't let the NAM suck you in right now. I certainly hope no one is. Way too many moving parts on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Awesome turn of events. I bet the GFS caves a bit. Still quite a few model runs left but finally something exciting to watch. A good ol' fashion model war inside of 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 holy crap... just looked at the 12z nam... this is entering very worthwhile futility-buster territory question on interpreting this: on both 6z and 12z nam runs, it appears we have a vortmax rounding the base of the trough + shortwave (initially disorganized/multiple pieces of energy) emerging from southern stream... this looks like a phase to me, and the timing is trending quickly enough that it's bombing just in time to affect SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I like being east this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 20 ub/s 700 vv over cape and islands 54 hrs out. should be interesting to see how this pans out over the next few model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 GFS is going to have to take a pretty big shift NW to catch up if at all as its well east of all the guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 FWIW. is there any chance you run that map to include areas slightly further south? Thanks in advance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Even if the NAM has the right idea, my money is on it settling back east at least a bit.....congrats, cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I like being east this time. longitude dependent storm if NAM holds, we are seeing product of strong baroclinicity... this thing really takes off quickly. i kind of wish we didn't have such a torch Thursday/Friday and arctic air was in place before, though it looks like dynamics will play a significant role so coastal northeast Mass will be ok with Euro trends, i suspect GFS is currently out to lunch, though GFS had an incredibly close depiction of this waaaay back Feb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Even if the NAM has the right idea, my money is on it settling back east at least a bit.....congrats, cape. eastern mass special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Even if the NAM has the right idea, my money is on it settling back east at least a bit.....congrats, cape. I think there is room for a tick west, but only so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 A blue hills bomber. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 kbos 12Z NAM soundings for those who don't know where to find them: HR Valid 2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX Tot Snowfall Vis Deg F Deg F deg kt in. in. Thk GPH Tmp Tmp mb % TEXT Clouds in SM 45 02/11 09Z 35 31 189 5 0.00 0.00 532 542 -5.7 -22.8 1012 100 018OVC324 0.0 15.1 48 02/11 12Z 33 32 105 2 0.06 0.00 532 540 -4.0 -24.1 1010 100 -SN 000OVC315 0.7 1.9 51 02/11 15Z 32 31 5 6 0.20 0.00 533 539 -2.9 -24.0 1007 100 SN 000OVC288 2.3 0.0 54 02/11 18Z 32 32 360 12 0.35 0.00 534 536 -2.7 -23.5 1002 100 SN 000OVC242 3.7 0.0 57 02/11 21Z 32 32 351 13 0.32 0.00 534 533 -5.2 -24.1 998 100 SN OVC157 3.2 0.3 60 02/12 00Z 32 30 324 15 0.14 0.00 528 527 -7.0 -23.6 997 100 -SN 000OVC114 1.4 1.0 63 02/12 03Z 27 23 306 18 0.01 0.00 522 521 -8.5 -27.7 998 91 033BKN074 0.0 15.1 total qpf 1.08 for kBOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Even if the NAM has the right idea, my money is on it settling back east at least a bit.....congrats, cape. Why? Cause you've been hypnotized this winter thinking that it can't snow? That's almost as weenie as saying " it will shift west and nail me" I've actually been watching the trends on the storm that is currently blowing up in the Atlantic and that had significantly trended west from about 48 hours on in.. don't know what it means but a good sign. There is going to be an awesome death band with this one with the warm air to.the SE and Arctic air to the NW.. the deformation is gonna be awesome! Where the fook is tip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I like being east this time. Dude that's enough of the "east" talk. Lets include everyone in this discussion now. After all that bickering about SE/E Mass event... looks like that may very well come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
860Wx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 kbos 12Z NAM soundings for those who don't know where to find them: HR Valid 2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX Tot Snowfall Vis Deg F Deg F deg kt in. in. Thk GPH Tmp Tmp mb % TEXT Clouds in SM 45 02/11 09Z 35 31 189 5 0.00 0.00 532 542 -5.7 -22.8 1012 100 018OVC324 0.0 15.1 48 02/11 12Z 33 32 105 2 0.06 0.00 532 540 -4.0 -24.1 1010 100 -SN 000OVC315 0.7 1.9 51 02/11 15Z 32 31 5 6 0.20 0.00 533 539 -2.9 -24.0 1007 100 SN 000OVC288 2.3 0.0 54 02/11 18Z 32 32 360 12 0.35 0.00 534 536 -2.7 -23.5 1002 100 SN 000OVC242 3.7 0.0 57 02/11 21Z 32 32 351 13 0.32 0.00 534 533 -5.2 -24.1 998 100 SN OVC157 3.2 0.3 60 02/12 00Z 32 30 324 15 0.14 0.00 528 527 -7.0 -23.6 997 100 -SN 000OVC114 1.4 1.0 63 02/12 03Z 27 23 306 18 0.01 0.00 522 521 -8.5 -27.7 998 91 033BKN074 0.0 15.1 total qpf 1.08 for kBOS Could you run that for BDL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 A blue hills bomber. I'll be on the summit Sunday morning to measure the total amount, that is if I don't need an ice pic and a rope to get up there...that may take some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Could you run that for BDL? KBDL soundings off 12Z NAM: HR Valid 2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX Tot Snowfall Vis Deg F Deg F deg kt in. in. Thk GPH Tmp Tmp mb % TEXT Clouds in SM 42 02/11 06Z 34 28 218 4 0.00 0.00 531 543 -7.0 -22.8 1014 100 030OVC324 0.0 14.8 45 02/11 09Z 32 31 155 2 0.02 0.00 532 541 -5.4 -22.9 1011 100 -SN 007OVC323 0.2 1.9 48 02/11 12Z 31 31 39 2 0.10 0.00 531 539 -5.1 -24.0 1009 100 -SN 006OVC293 1.0 0.5 51 02/11 15Z 32 31 13 5 0.16 0.00 531 537 -4.9 -23.4 1007 100 SN 006OVC245 1.6 0.5 54 02/11 18Z 33 32 360 8 0.13 0.00 531 534 -5.1 -24.2 1003 100 -SN 006OVC182 1.3 1.0 57 02/11 21Z 35 30 347 10 0.02 0.00 528 529 -6.5 -26.5 1000 90 140BKN193 0.1 13.4 total qpf 0.43" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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